EF0 tornado, Airway Hgts, Washington, July 22, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
246 PM PDT Fri Jul 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit the region tonight. The scattered showers
and thunderstorms over northeast Washington and north ID will wane
through the evening. The breezy conditions will also start to
wane. A warm and mostly dry summer pattern will arrive this
weekend and persist through next week. However there will be
minor shower chances near the Canadian border, from time to time,
through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
across northeastern Washington will give way to drier conditions
late this evening into Saturday. The cold front that passed this
morning is moving into western Montana. This afternoon we are left
with the upper low which is wrapped up with a fair amount of
moisture (with PWATs near 1 inch) and instability (with LAPS data
indicating CAPE values between 200-1000 J/kg).

The low was centered northeast of Republic. The primary clusters
of showers and thunderstorms were in the deformation axis wrapped
around its west and southwest flank, across Ferry to Lincoln
county, tracking into Stevens and toward Spokane. As the low moves
east-northeast this evening these clusters will continue to
migrates across northeast WA and north ID. The bulk of the
shower/t-storm threat is expected to exit through north ID between
8 to 10 PM. The threat of locally heavy rains and locally frequent
lightning will be the main threat, but a few storms could produce
gusty winds and some hail. Flash Flood Watches were cancelled for
all BUT the Okanogan Highlands and as the precipitation clusters
start to move away the threat here will wane too. Farther east the
risk of flooding is lower but we will continue to monitor for
locally heavy rain.

Meanwhile a ridge will start to build in from the west and drier
conditions will start in. A weak impulse skirts by the northeast
WA/north ID mountains Saturday afternoon which could bring some
isolated showers/t-storms then. Otherwise dry and clear to partly
cloudy conditions are expected.

Winds will remain breezy this evening with the passing low, especially
over the lee of the Cascades to western Columbia Basin where local
gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. The speeds will start to
abate after about 8-10 PM, slowest near the Cascades. Some marginally
breezy conditions will be found near the Cascade gaps again Saturday
afternoon, but gusts will largely be under 20 mph.

Sunday through Friday: Aside from some passing shower/t-storm
chances around the northern mountains, the upcoming week looks
largely dry with above normal temperatures. Early this period the
5-wave model indicates a near zonal flow before a ridge amplifies.
In light of this temperatures are projected to be near normal
Sunday, then push above normal Monday onward. Toward Friday high
temperatures have the potential to be 5-10 degrees above normal.
While it is several days out and confidence is lessened by that
fact, models have been somewhat consistent in showing 850mb
temperatures averages around 25 C. So I raised highs.

As for the shower/t-storm threat: the building ridge will be dirty.
This means a series of shortwaves will track into it before it
starts to clean out late next week. The primary precipitation
chances pass during the afternoon and evening hours between Monday
and Thursday, near the northern WA to north ID and possibly
central Panhandle mountains. A few runs suggest some of those
showers may come into the northeastern Columbia Basin Tuesday
and/or Wednesday afternoon. Yet right now the risk is too slight.
Mainly expect a few more clouds in the afternoon/evening hours
away from the mountains.

The main other notable weather may be some increased winds,
especially near the lee of Cascades, with the passing shortwaves
and during the late afternoon/evening hours. On average afternoon
relative humidity values trend drier through the week. Yet there
are no stand-out critical fire weather concern, though it would
seem the fuels would start to dry out some. /J. Cote'

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A band of light to moderate rain showers will move
through Spokane and Coeur d'Alene in the 18z-20z time frame.
Clearing skies over north central Washington under the center of
the upper low will be an area to watch for thunderstorm
development by 20z. Cells that develop under the upper low around
Republic, Omak, and Colville will have the potential to drift
toward the Spokane area in the 22z-01z time frame. The eastward
movement of the upper low combined with drying westerly flow this
evening will contribute to the dissipation of showers and
thunderstorms in the 01z-03z time frame. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  78  57  86  61  91 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d'Alene  53  77  54  86  56  89 /  60   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        50  77  49  85  51  89 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       58  85  59  92  62  96 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  81  52  88  53  93 /  60  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      50  75  50  83  51  86 /  70  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        50  74  50  83  53  87 /  60  10   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     55  84  56  89  59  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  83  61  89  64  94 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           55  85  59  90  62  94 /  10   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan
     Highlands.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
255 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

IDZ003-004-026-027-WAZ031>034-041>044-231400-
IDAHO PALOUSE-CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-WENATCHEE AREA-EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-
OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
255 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IDZ001-002-WAZ035>038-231400-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
SPOKANE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-
255 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OR SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
AROUND BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1237 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

WAZ035-044-222015-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN WA-WATERVILLE PLATEAU WA-
1237 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN AND EAST CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM PDT...

AT 1235 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF BANKS LAKE...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ELECTRIC
CITY. THIS STRONG STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BANKS LAKE...STEAMBOAT ROCK STATE PARK...ELECTRIC CITY...
AND HARTLINE..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

IF ON OR NEAR BANKS LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 10 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4781 11945 4793 11939 4788 11894 4764 11910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 293DEG 11KT 4786 11934

GKOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1246 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE CARLTON           48.29N 120.07W
07/22/2016                   OKANOGAN           WA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON SR-153 AT MM 26.

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
134 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW BREWSTER          48.13N 119.85W
07/22/2016                   OKANOGAN           WA   PUBLIC

            THE ROADWAY IS WASHED OUT FOUR MILE UP FROM
            SR 97 ON INDIAN DAN CANYON ROAD.

1225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE METHOW             48.14N 119.99W
07/22/2016                   OKANOGAN           WA   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ON PRIVATE LAND ALONG FRENCH CREEK
            ROAD.

1225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE CARLTON           48.29N 120.07W
07/22/2016                   OKANOGAN           WA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SR-153, JUST NORTH OF MILE POST 26 IS CLOSED
            DUE TO MUD AND DEBRIS OVER THE ROADWAY. IT
            IS BEING REPORTED AT BEING 100 YARDS WIDE.

1225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S METHOW              48.11N 120.00W
07/22/2016                   OKANOGAN           WA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER/MUD OVER THE ROADWAY NEAR 315 BURMA
            ROAD.

&&

NWS SPOKANE WA
IRIS SYSTEM