EF0 tornado, (Gls)Scholes Fld Gal, Texas, July 17, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings continue to develop across Central Texas early this
morning and CLL/CXO may see brief periods of MVFR restrictions
through mid-morning today.

A weakness moving under an upper ridge centered west of the
region with deeper moisture returning will result in greater
SHRA/ isolated TSRA coverage near the terminals today than what
was observed yesterday. Already seeing a few SHRA near GLS as of
1145Z and expect additional development along the coast late
morning and along the I-10 corridor by early afternoon with
heating. Have kept VCTS mention in for UTS, CXO, SGR, and the
Houston terminals as a result and added a VCSH mention in for GLS
through the remainder of the morning. While likelihood of a
terminal impact are low, activity will be capably of producing
brief heavy downpours that may result in temporary visibility
reductions. May also see a stray shower near CLL this afternoon,
but probabilities are too low to include mention in TAF attm.
Expect any SHRA/TSRA that develops to dissipate after sunset.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF
sites through the period with southerly winds becoming
southeasterly 5 to 10 knots this afternoon.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
The last few hours an upper low has moved out of Gulf into Mexico
just south of Brownsville with the upper shear axis nearing the
Upper Texas coast as of 4 am. Starting to see some scattered
showers develop in the favored area of lift over the far Upper
Texas coastal waters. This shear axis continues to shift inland
this morning and should bring a little lift to the area after days
of subsidence. Soundings support scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across the southeastern 2/3rds of the area.
Temperatures today will probably be moderated by cloud cover and
outflow so have pared back temps a degree or two - though this
may feel a bit cooler it will likely still be above normal in the
mid 90s with heat index readings in the 101 to 104 range. Storms
will be fairly slow moving and capable brief heavy downpours but
not expecting any big clusters just more of the ordinary summer
variety. Storms should wane by 6-7 pm with the loss of daytime
heating. Upper flow remains favorable for more showers after
midnight Monday morning in the coastal waters expanding onshore
early Monday. Again the area could see scattered showers and
thunderstorms spreading inland and then focusing along the
seabreeze Monday afternoon. But by Monday night the anomalous
upper ridging over OK/MO expands and will likely return to a
subsidence dominated weather regime with temperatures creeping
back up into the mid-upper 90s. Rain chances Tue-Fri look slim and
mainly along and south of the Highway 59 corridor. The upper ridge
finally begins to weaken Saturday which should allow for weak
disturbances to ride into the area from the east which could mean
a slight increase to rain chances over the weekend.
45

MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow today will become
easterly Monday through the remainder of the week as surface high
pressure over the southeastern US builds farther west. Seas
generally in the 1-3 feet range are expected to persist through mid-
week, increasing to 2-4 feet mid to late week in response to the
long, easterly fetch across the northern Gulf. Scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
coastal waters through mid-week. Otherwise, tide levels within one
foot of normal today will increase to slightly above normal this
week as easterly surface flow becomes established.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      96  76  94  76  97 /  20   0  20  10  20
Houston (IAH)              94  77  93  76  95 /  40  10  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  82  91  83  90 /  20  10  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14