EF0 tornado, Clairemont, Texas, April 16, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED PORTIONS OF THE NW SOUTH PLAINS WITH
RAINFALL AND BRIEF BOUTS OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO
YESTERDAY...CONTINUED TO CHURN AWAY ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTN. THE SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE NEWRD THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND RETROGRADE TO NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS BY TOMORROW
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SAID DISTURBANCE...THE
DRYLINE HAD NO PROBLEMS SURGING EWRD TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
LATE THIS AFTN...WITH BREEZY SW WIND SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-25
MPH AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT BREEZY SE SFC WINDS AND THE SLOW/GRADUAL THINNING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS /EAST OF THE
DRYLINE/. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED UNDERNEATH THE
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT MORE INTERESTING
THINGS ARE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. WHILE THE UA LOW PROVIDES THE
REGION WITH A 250 MB 90+ KT JET STREAK AND HENCE INCREASING THE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME /PWATS 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. ALSO EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AN AXIS OF LOW-
MID THETA-E WILL EXIST AS WELL AS SBC OF 1000-2500 J/KG...0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KTS...A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND
A LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...RAISES CONCERN FOR STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TO QUICKLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LEVELS. FURTHERMORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LOW LCL/S
AND SFC-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 100 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH THE ABOVE
SEVERE INDICES RAISES CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A TORNADO OR TWO
ACROSS THE SAID AREA. BEST PROGGED HELICITY VALUES VALUES ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH IS AN AREA WE WILL BE KEEPING
AN EVEN CLOSER EYE ON. DUE TO EVERYTHING...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL 9 PM CDT. THOUGH THIS WATCH
COULD EXPAND A BIT WWRD LATER TODAY AS SIGNS OF THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DRYLINE HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF RETREATING A BIT.

LATE TONIGHT THE SEVERE INDICES WILL SUBSIDE WHILST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL WHILE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE HONES IN ON SWRN
OK...FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND SE TO ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT THIS AND THE EVOLVING FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
IS THE STORM MODE TRANSITIONING FROM A DISCRETE MODE TO A LINEAR
MODE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HINTS AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TO 2.00+ INCHES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS VALID THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. WILL THEREFORE
ELECT TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS. EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WHILE THE LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE CWA AND ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS WAS RECENTLY DRIED OUT A BIT DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO INSTIGATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WITH AT LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAINING UNTIL THE UPPER LOW CLEARS EAST ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE OVER LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO RETURN LOW CHANCES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST BY THE
WEEKEND. MAJOR COMPUTER PROBLEMS AND ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER
UNFORTUNATELY PRECLUDES A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION. RMCQUEEN

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD UA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAS
PROMOTED ITS SURFACE COUNTERPART TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...RESULTING IN THE DRYLINE SURGING EAST TO NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT OR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
COUPLED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-25 MPH ON
THE CAPROCK. THE DRYLINE HAS THEREFORE BEEN ABLE TO SURGE EASTWARD
TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...AND ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO
USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO
BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT ON THE CAPROCK. ONE OR TWO SITES ACROSS THE
FAR WEST SOUTH PLAINS HAVE TICKED OFF A FEW RED FLAG MINUTES WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE BREEZY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS UNTIL 8 PM CDT WHICH IS WARRANTED. THE ONGOING GREEN-UP AND
LACK OF WIDESPREAD SITES REPORTING RED FLAG MINUTES ARE MITIGATING
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. /29

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

29/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

TXZ021>044-171645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1133 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SILVERTON...TO RALLS...TO TAHOKA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THOUGH A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO
A SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY
AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAPROCK BEHIND THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL END BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     WALL CLOUD       4 NW FLOYDADA           34.02N 101.39W
04/16/2016                   FLOYD              TX   STORM CHASER

            VERY SLOW BUT PERSISTENT ROTATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600054

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S SOUTH PLAINS        34.15N 101.31W
04/16/2016                   FLOYD              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1-2 FEET OF WATER OVER 207

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600055

JGD