F0 tornado, La Porte, Texas, October 9, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2003

LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AS NOTED ON THE 00Z
CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING...IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE LAKE
CHARLES SOUNDING WAS NOT QUITE AS MOIST...SO OUR AREA IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. RADAR LOOPS HAVE SHOWN BANDS OF
SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT DIE BEFORE MOVING
TOO FAR INTO OUR ZONES. THESE WAVES OF SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAKING
IT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST EACH TIME...SUGGESTING THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS ARE MOISTENING UP SOMEWHAT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF
THE BAJA SPUR. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
RAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY. ITS PATH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE.
ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE POP VALUES AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT
TODAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND LOWER THE POPS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE
HAVOC ON TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY. WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AREA WIDE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE NORTH WHERE GREATER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE WORKED
INTO THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING TO GET MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...LIKELY REACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
46/40

.HGX...NONE.

CLL TE 079/068 080/064 083 +5-
IAH TE 078/070 082/064 083 85-
GLS TE 081/073 080/072 081 85-

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
615 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.