F0 tornado, La Salle, Texas, July 28, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

SURROUNDING 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH PWATS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA (ABOUT 2.2 INCHES) AND DRIER NORTHWARD. 850-700 MB
RIDGE OVER REGION AND THIS FEATURE IS LESS PRONOUNCED AT 500 MB.
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR APPROACHING BAJA IS TROUGHING NE TO W TEXAS.
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO SOUTH TEXAS
W/CONSEQUENT HIGHER POPS. OUR REGION WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION W/CONTINUED CHANCE (30 PERCENT) POPS COASTAL
REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWARD. MARINE REGION RATHER TRANQUIL
W/BOUYS REPORTING 1-2 FT SEAS W/4-5 SECONDS PERIOD. FORECAST PACKAGE
ON TRACK.

37/38

.HGX...NONE.

CLL BB 095/074 094/074 093 212
IAH BB 094/075 093/075 092 213
GLS BB 089/080 088/080 088 323

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING SE TX...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE...WAS
HIGH PRESSURE AT 850 AND 700 MB CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE UT AREA EXTENDED
OVERHEAD...THOUGH THERE WAS A WEAKNESS OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS.  WEAK FEATURES WOULD BE THE BEST TERM TO DESCRIBE THE
00Z ANALYSIS.  FEEL THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TODAY AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FURTHER DOWN THE COAST TOWARD CRP AND BRO (THE 700 MB
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS PREFERRED AREA NICELY).

THE FINER DETAILS IN THE MODELS WERE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT GIVEN
THE WEAK PATTERN.  AFTER TODAY THE GFS INDICATES THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER AT 850 AND 700 MB SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SCATTERED DAYTIME POPS BACK INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE INLAND
LOCATIONS.  TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
IN BRINGING THE WESTERN CENTER OF THE 500 MB RIDGE TOWARD TX BY THE
END OF THE SEVEN-DAY PERIOD.  THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE WHILE THE
GFS HAD A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.  AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD TX...
BOTH MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN
SE TX.  HOWEVER...IF IT DOES DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE FRONT DID
LAST WEEK THERE WILL THEN BE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS IN PLACE FOR BETTER
RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY.

PL-40
30

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.