Tornadoes · United States · Oklahoma · 2017

Unrated tornado, Frederick Arpt to Grandfield, Oklahoma, May 10, 2017

From Frederick Arpt to Grandfield, this Unrated tornado ran 0.3 miles across Tillman County on May 10, 2017, touching down at 8:31 PM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unratedthis tornado

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
Unrated
Date
May 10, 2017
Touchdown
8:31 PM CDT (01:31 UTC)
Path length
0.3 miles (0.5 km)
Path width
50 yards (46 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Tillman County
Touchdown point
34.302, -98.679
Lift-off point
34.302, -98.679
Record number
1705101931-01

What the Weather Service recorded

With outflow boundaries floating around the state and a large upper low moving into the region, scattered storms formed across Oklahoma and western north Texas on the evening of the 10th.

Storm chasers observed a brief tornado about 7 miles east-northeast of Davidson. No damage was reported and the location was estimated.

A tornado was observed by numerous storm chasers crossing State Highway 36 east of Loveland and north of Grandfield. No damage was reported.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

0 minutes of warning. NWS OUN issued a tornado warning for this county at 01:31 UTC, 0 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 01:46 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 19:43 UTC and running to 03:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
19:43 UTC03:00 UTCTornado WatchOUN
22:14 UTC22:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUN
23:54 UTC00:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUN
00:20 UTC01:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUN
00:36 UTC01:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUN
00:45 UTC01:45 UTCFlood AdvisoryOUN
00:55 UTC01:30 UTCTornado WarningOUN
01:28 UTC02:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUN
01:31 UTC01:46 UTCTornado WarningOUN

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 01:00 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 10, 6:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 6:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
656 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall potential continues
this evening mainly across southwestern Oklahoma.

Latest radars as of 650 pm depicted numerous showers and
thunderstorms near an old outflow boundary from Quanah Texas to
Altus to Fort Cobb. Think storms will continue near this boundary.
Some storms will likely be severe with large hail and damaging
winds as the main hazard. Training of storms may lead to heavy
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches and localized flooding as well as the
air is moist (precipitable water values 1.2-1.7", well above
average for this time of year).

These storms will move into the Oklahoma City metro area between
730 pm and midnight, but overall, are expected to weaken as the
air is cooler and more stable across central Oklahoma (MLCAPE
500-1500 J/kg) compared to southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg). Still cannot rule out some severe
hail and wind reports as well as heavy rainfall and localized
flooding.

Northwest of the outflow boundary appears to have a lower severe
potential tonight due to cooler and more stable air in place.
Southeast of the outflow boundary may remain too capped for storm
development this evening.

It appears the threat for tornadoes may be decreasing in many
areas this evening. Latest storms appear mainly be northwest and
located on the cooler side of the outflow boundary. Low level
shear will be increasing over the next few hours however, so will
continue to monitor, especially near the Lawton, Wichita Falls,
and Vernon areas where the latest STP values were 2 to 3.

Products will be updated shortly.

Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below as well.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
Have very low confidence in the TAFs.

ISO-NUM TSRA will affect locations near KLTS-KOKC before 06 UTC
and bring brief MVFR conditions as well as variable strong winds.

Additional SHRA/TSRA may affect other sites as well and continue
anytime now through Thursday night, but pinpointing when and where
activity occurs remains very challenging.

Widespread MVFR and lower conditions may form anywhere north of
KLTS-KOUN before 18 UTC. Most places are expected to be MVFR or
VFR after 18 UTC.

A surface wind shift to the north will occur at many sites 09-22
UTC as a cold front moves south.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus is this afternoon and evening with potential for severe
thunderstorms. Latest observations show an outflow from morning
convection oriented east-northeast to west-southwest across the
area, roughly from just south of Ponca City to near Kingfisher to
just north of Hobart and Altus. North of the boundary, convection
has been persistent.

Latest water vapor band imagery shows deep closed low over central
New Mexico early this afternoon, drifting slowly east. 7.3
micrometer band clearly shows deep EML plume moving north-
northeast atop moist boundary layer. Moderate instability is
expected from mid-late afternoon south of aforementioned outflow
boundary, across extreme southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Deep moist boundary layer and meridional flow may not be
favorable for significant eastward mixing of the dryline and
latest short term model guidance support this. Backed low level
flow that veers quickly above the surface as well relatively low
LCLs will support low-level mesocyclones and a tornado threat.
Significant CAPE in the hail growth zone and a tendency for
supercell storm mode will support a threat of large to very large
hail as well. Damaging winds are another convective threat.
Thunderstorms should move northeast potentially reaching the I-35
corridor this evening. This will be the main area of convection
today. Further north convection and a few marginally severe storms
will be possible, but the air mass north of the boundary is
comparatively more stable.

We have shifted precipitation chances tomorrow further west based
on trends. There is some uncertainty on how convection will evolve
this evening and overnight, and this will have implications on
tomorrow's forecast. Admittedly the majority of our attention has
been on today and tonight's potential. But, there seems to be
enough signal in model trends to bring thunderstorm chances
further west, with afternoon convection (including the possibility
of severe thunderstorms) certainly possible near I-35 and the
metro.

No significant chances were needed to latter portions of the
forecast. Mean ridging should preclude convection through at least
Sunday afternoon, but some isolated storms that develop in the
panhandles (if they develop) may approach far western Oklahoma by
evening. An ejecting shortwave trough across the central Rockies
into the central and northern Plains early next week will lead to
daily convective chances, and severe thunderstorms may be
possible. We will refine timing, coverage and threats as smaller
scale details become more clear during the next few days.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  80  57  73 /  90  60  40  10
Hobart OK         60  80  55  75 /  70  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  87  59  77 /  30  20  10   0
Gage OK           55  71  48  73 /  50  50  10   0
Ponca City OK     62  77  55  73 /  50  70  50  10
Durant OK         67  80  59  75 /  20  80  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

17
Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 8:26 PM CDT, 5 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
826 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-120130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
826 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight.

.Location...
The Slight Risk area is west of a line from Stillwater and
Shawnee, to Pauls Valley and Ardmore, Oklahoma.

.Timing...
Severe storms will be possible through midnight tonight.

.Impacts...
Large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph will be possible. A few tornadoes will also be
possible, especially across portions of southwestern Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

.Discussion...
Ongoing thunderstorms over central and southwestern Oklahoma and
western north Texas will continue to pose a threat of severe
weather through the remainder of the evening as they slowly
move east and northeast.

Large hail and strong winds will be the main concerns across the
risk area. A few tornadoes will also be possible, especially near
the outflow boundary in southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas where the air is most unstable.

The potential for severe weather is expected to decrease after
midnight tonight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT....
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk area should remain alert for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening across portions of southeastern Oklahoma. Large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

Thunderstorm chances will end late Thursday night across eastern
and southeastern Oklahoma, then return Monday into early
next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

MBS

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 7:11 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
711 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             2 S ODELL               34.32N 99.42W
05/10/2017  E1.00 INCH       WILBARGER          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW
Local storm report, May 10, 7:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             HEADRICK                34.63N 99.14W
05/10/2017  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW
Local storm report, May 10, 8:00 PM CDT, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             FREDERICK               34.39N 99.01W
05/10/2017  E1.00 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW
Local storm report, May 10, 8:14 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
814 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TORNADO          6 E DAVIDSON            34.24N 98.97W
05/10/2017                   TILLMAN            OK   STORM CHASER

&&

DW
Local storm report, May 10, 8:20 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE FREDERICK          34.36N 98.97W
05/10/2017  M72 MPH          TILLMAN            OK   ASOS

&&

DW
Local storm report, May 10, 8:27 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE FREDERICK          34.36N 98.97W
05/10/2017  M72.00 MPH       TILLMAN            OK   ASOS

&&

DW

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Norman, OK (KOUN), 00:00Z

1.5 hours before the tornado, 155 km from the path. May 11, 2017.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2017-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1639 joules per kilogram, CIN -10, lifted condensation level 514 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2017-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 175 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 61 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1639 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1961 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
514 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
136 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.5
Supercell composite
5.6
0-3 km lapse rate
5.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Norman, OK (KOUN), 12:00Z

10.5 hours after it, 155 km from the path. May 11, 2017.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2017-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 592 joules per kilogram, CIN -121, lifted condensation level 1262 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2017-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 106 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 49 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
592 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-121 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1785 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1262 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.8
0-3 km lapse rate
5.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 28 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:31 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
00:20 UTCHAIL 1HeadrickJackson, OK
00:58 UTCHAIL 1FrederickTillman, OK
00:59 UTCTSTM WND GST 723 Se FrederickTillman, OK
01:04 UTCTSTM WND GST 723 Se FrederickTillman, OK
01:05 UTCTORNADO6 E DavidsonTillman, OK
01:29 UTCTORNADO6 E LovelandTillman, OKMEDIA CHASERS AND SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO THAT CROSSED HIGHWAY 36.
01:41 UTCTORNADO7 Sse ChattanoogaCotton, OKFROM PENN STATE STORM CHASE TEAM. RADAR INDICATED THE TORNADO LIKELY MOVED NEAR THE TILLMAN-COTTON COUNTY LINE.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2017 tornado in OklahomaEvery tornado in Oklahoma since 1950Warnings in force in Oklahoma nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 10, 2017

13 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
May 103:27 AM CDTEF1Armstrong, TX2.8180
May 104:01 AM CDTEF1Gray, TX2.650
May 1012:37 PM MDTEF0Colfax, NM1.750
May 102:46 PM CDTEF0Van Buren, IA2.850
May 102:54 PM CDTUnratedMotley, TX0.010
May 103:37 PM CDTUnratedCottle, TX0.010
May 103:58 PM CDTUnratedCottle, TX1.125
May 104:44 PM CDTUnratedHall, TX0.450
May 107:49 PM CDTEF0Macon, IL0.120$8,000
May 108:05 PM CDTEF0Tillman, OK0.330
May 108:36 PM CDTUnratedCotton, OK2.0100
May 1010:58 PM CDTUnratedVal Verde, TX0.110
May 1012:34 AM CDTEF0Newton, MO1.0100$100,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.