EF1 tornado, Dacoma, Oklahoma, April 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

84/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO...TO
CHEYENNE...TO MANGUM IN OKLAHOMA...TO QUANAH AND BENJAMIN IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS....AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO OKLAHOMA CITY..TO
ARDMORE. THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS TO TENNIS BALLS...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID STORM ORGANIZATION...AND HAVE AT TIMES
BECOME SEVERE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE AREAS OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST
FOR A TIME FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

EM/MBS/AUSTIN

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