Tornadoes · United States · Nebraska · 2019

EF1 tornado, Cozad to Buffalo, Nebraska, May 17, 2019

From Cozad to Buffalo, this EF1 tornado ran 9.8 miles across Dawson County on May 17, 2019, touching down at 7:54 PM CDT and reaching 600 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $900,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
May 17, 2019
Touchdown
7:54 PM CDT (00:54 UTC)
Lifted
8:10 PM CDT (01:10 UTC)
On the ground
16 minutes
Path length
9.8 miles (15.7 km)
Path width
600 yards (549 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$900,000
County
Dawson County
Touchdown point
40.861, -99.953
Lift-off point
40.957, -99.817
Record number
1905171854-01

The damage survey

30 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS GID and NWS LBF, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 107 mph.

  • Some roof panel loss on outbuilding. Small old grain bin damages
  • Well built metal/steel building. Roof panel loss. Some tree damage nearby.
  • Pole barn with 3 2x8 together as side support in ground. Laminated lumber.
  • Debris field north/northeast of farmstead

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A long-lived supercell produced 3 weak tornadoes over Dawson county on this Friday evening. Around 2 PM CST, a north-northwest to south-southeast broken line of showers and thunderstorms developed from near Lexington to Alma and into north central Kansas. Between 2 and 430 PM CST, this line moved northeast across south central Nebraska. The strongest storms developed over Gosper and Dawson counties and moved north-northeast across Sherman and Valley counties. These storms produced some low-end severe hail (nickel to quarter size) over eastern Dawson and western Buffalo counties, and downburst winds were strong enough to knock a tree onto a lean-to south of Ord. Storms in the rest of the line rapidly weakened. Meanwhile, a lone supercell had formed over northwest Kansas. This storm moved north-northeast and crossed western Dawson county between 545 and 745 PM CST, producing three tornadoes. Two tornadoes had a maximum damage intensity of EF-1. These tornadoes were near Farnam and Cozad. The third tornado was an EF-0 west of Eddyville. The Cozad tornado was the longest with a 10-mile path. This supercell also produced severe hail from Farnam north to Gothenburg, the largest of which was the size of tennis balls in Farnam.||This was a much-anticipated day for storm chasers as the setup was classic. Deepening low pressure was over northeast Colorado, and by 6 PM CST, the pressure was down to 990 mb. This low was located along a stationary front that extended east-northeast across Nebraska. A dryline extended south from the low and a cold front was approaching from the west. The area was in the warm sector with the triple point over southwest Nebraska. As the evening progressed, the low and cold front moved into central Nebraska, with the front merging with the dryline. The flow aloft was moderately-amplified with a low over Utah, embedded within a longwave trough over the West, while a ridge was over the eastern United States. In the wake of the earlier showers and storms, within the inflow of the supercell, temperatures were in the middle 70s, with dewpoints in the middle 60s. With mid-level lapse rates 7.5-8.0 C/km, this resulted in MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear was around 40 kt. Low-level winds were strong and veered significantly with height, resulting in 0-1 km SRH between 250 and 300 m2/s2. The Supercell Composite Parameter was about 18 and the Significant Tornado Parameter was around 4.

This tornado was witnessed by many as it formed on the east side of Cozad, where some tree damage and power poles were broken. The nearly 10-mile path weaved to the northeast across a rural landscape. One-half of a large farm machinery shed was complete destroyed and several irrigation pivots were upset, helping delineate the path. Grain bins were destroyed and tree damage was sporadic along the path. The tornado was reported to be rain-wrapped at times. The path become indiscernible as the tornado moved into the hills north of Cozad and the road network became more sparse. The estimated maximum wind speed was 100 MPH.

This tornado touched down west of Eddyville, and was reported to be rain wrapped as it crossed Highway 21. The path, wind speed and other information were estimated from eyewitness reports and radar data, as there are few damage indicators in the area. The estimated maximum wind speed was 85 MPH.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

14 minutes of warning. NWS GID issued a tornado warning for this county at 00:40 UTC, 14 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 01:45 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 20:00 UTC and running to 05:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
20:00 UTC05:00 UTCTornado WatchGID
20:47 UTC21:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningGID
21:22 UTC21:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningGID
23:48 UTC00:45 UTCTornado WarningGID
00:40 UTC01:45 UTCTornado WarningGID
02:40 UTC03:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningGID
03:45 UTC04:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningGID

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:56 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), 00:00Z

0.9 hours before the tornado, 65 km from the path. May 18, 2019.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 00:00Z on 2019-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1428 joules per kilogram, CIN -18, lifted condensation level 1396 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 00:00Z on 2019-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 190 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 52 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1428 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1823 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1396 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
190 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
288 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
7.1
0-3 km lapse rate
7.3 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), 12:00Z

11.1 hours after it, 65 km from the path. May 18, 2019.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2019-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -91105, lifted condensation level 1111 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2019-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -169 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 52 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-91105 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1111 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-169 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
3.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Lexington (LXN), 16 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
22:15 UTC7766.4150° 21 kt26997.6
22:35 UTC76.865.5150° 21 kt27998VCTS
22:55 UTC7665150° 17 kt23998
23:15 UTC75.764.8150° 17 kt23997.6
23:35 UTC75.664.6140° 14 kt21997
23:55 UTC75.264140° 18 kt25997
00:15 UTC75.263.7140° 16 kt23997
00:35 UTC74.763.5140° 14 kt22997-RA
00:55 UTC74.763.5140° 18 kt25995.9
01:15 UTC74.763150° 21 kt29996.3
01:35 UTC74.363150° 23 kt31996.3
01:55 UTC7363.3160° 26 kt36995.9-RA

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 130 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 00:52 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
21:23 UTCHAIL 0.88OvertonDawson, NE
21:23 UTCHAIL 1OvertonDawson, NECORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM OVERTON.
21:26 UTCHAIL 1OvertonDawson, NE
21:32 UTCHAIL 1Elm CreekBuffalo, NEDELAYED REPORT FROM FACEBOOK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
21:33 UTCHAIL 0.752 W Elm CreekBuffalo, NESPOTTER NETWORK REPORT.
23:43 UTCHAIL 2.75Nnw StockvilleFrontier, NEREPORT VIA MPING. TIME BASED ON RADAR.
23:55 UTCTORNADO3 Ne StockvilleFrontier, NEDELAYED REPORT FROM MAY 17TH, REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WITH PICTURE. THEY WERE LOCATED AT 7 MILES EAST OF STOCKVILLE ON HWY 18 LOOKING WNW JUST NORTH OF STOCKVILLE, ESTIMATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF STOCKVILLE.
23:56 UTCTORNADONw StockvilleFrontier, NEDELAYED REPORT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN A HALF MILE NORTHWEST OF STOCKVILLE AT 2356Z AND MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS HARVESTED FARM GROUND BEFORE DISSIPATING AT 2358Z. NO DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THE TORNADO RATED AS AN EF-0 WITH W
23:58 UTCTORNADO5 Ne StockvilleFrontier, NEBRIEF ROPE TORNADO ONE THE GROUND FOR A SHORT TIME
00:09 UTCTORNADO10 Ne StockvilleFrontier, NETORNADO ON THE GROUND VIA LIVE STREAM
00:14 UTCHAIL 2.51 Ne MoorefieldLincoln, NEDELAYED REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE
00:18 UTCTORNADO2 Ne FarnamDawson, NESPOTTER NETWORK REPORT OF LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE.
00:26 UTCTORNADO2 Ne FarnamDawson, NEBRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. JUST NORTHEAST OF FARNAM. EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN.
00:33 UTCTORNADO8 Ene FarnamDawson, NECONE TORNADO.
00:35 UTCTORNADO1 E FarnamDawson, NETORNADO DAMAGE REPORTED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.
00:37 UTCTORNADO1 Ne FarnamDawson, NETORNADO DAMAGE REPORTED TRESS AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE ROAD, LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS ROAD BLOCKED EAST AND WEST BOUND.
00:40 UTCHAIL 2.51 E FarnamDawson, NECORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 1 E FARNAM. HAIL OCCURRED W OF FARNAM. SEE LSR FROM NWS NORTH PLATTE.
00:40 UTCHAIL 2.51 E FarnamDawson, NEDELAYED REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. HAIL WAS SLIGHTLY MELTED AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.
00:40 UTCHAIL 2.58 Ene MoorefieldLincoln, NELOCATION OF THE REPORT WAS LATITUDE 40.700 AND LONGITUDE -100.261 OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MOOREFIELD.
00:40 UTCHAIL 2.58 Ene MoorefieldLincoln, NESTORM CHASER REPORTS TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AT LATITUDE 40.700 AND LONGITUDE -100.261 OR APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MOOREFIELD.
00:40 UTCHAIL 2.58 Ene MoorefieldLincoln, NE
00:41 UTCHAIL 2.75Nnw StockvilleFrontier, NEREPORT VIA MPING
00:52 UTCHAIL 12 Nne CozadDawson, NEREPORTED AT 421 AND NEWELL.
00:54 UTCTORNADO1 N CozadDawson, NELARGE TORNADO JUST NORTH OF COZAD.
00:55 UTCHAIL 1.753 Sw Willow IslandDawson, NEFROM 7:55 TO 8:05 PM.
00:55 UTCHAIL 1.756 Sw Willow IslandDawson, NESPOTTER NETWORK REPORT.
00:55 UTCTORNADO2 Nne CozadDawson, NEWAS ON THE PHONE WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR HAIL, WHEN THEY GOT A REPORT OVER THE RADIO OF A TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN.
00:59 UTCHAIL 1GothenburgDawson, NE
01:06 UTCTORNADO2 E CozadDawson, NETORNADO ON GROUND KICKING UP LOTS OF DUST AND DEBRIS.
01:09 UTCTORNADO8 Ne CozadDawson, NETORNADO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS LOCATION.
01:13 UTCHAIL 2FarnamDawson, NEPICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
01:21 UTCTORNADO8 W EddyvilleDawson, NESPOTTER NETWORK REPORT OF RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO. LOCATION IS APPROXIMATE.
01:23 UTCTSTM WND DMG7 W EddyvilleDawson, NETREE DAMAGE. LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE.
01:30 UTCTORNADO3 S OcontoCuster, NESTORM SPOTTER OBSERVED. REPORT RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER
01:35 UTCTORNADO2 E CozadDawson, NEDAMAGE REPORTED TO PIVOT, FLAG POLE, TREES, AND POWER POLES NEAR THE COZAD CEMETERY.
01:45 UTCHAIL 2OcontoCuster, NEREPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
02:07 UTCHAIL 1.259 Ssw BerwynCuster, NETIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
02:30 UTCHAIL 1BradyLincoln, NE
02:49 UTCHAIL 14 Ese BradyLincoln, NE

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2019 tornado in NebraskaEvery tornado in Nebraska since 1950Warnings in force in Nebraska nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 17, 2019

21 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
May 174:43 PM CDTEF0Pecos, TX2.4100
May 175:40 PM CDTUnratedHitchcock, NE0.375
May 175:55 PM CDTEF2Red Willow, NE6.0350
May 176:10 PM CDTEF0Red Willow, NE3.0100
May 176:32 PM CDTEF0Frontier, NE0.120
May 176:45 PM CDTEF0Frontier, NE0.150
May 176:55 PM CDTEF0Frontier, NE0.5315$1,000
May 176:58 PM CDTEF2Frontier, NE0.6178$12,000
May 177:05 PM CDTEF3Frontier, NE2.1400$100,000
May 177:12 PM CDTEF0Frontier, NE0.340
May 177:15 PM CDTEF1Frontier, NE4.7400$250,000
May 177:32 PM CDTUnratedBeaver, OK to KS6.750
May 178:15 PM CDTEF0Dawson, NE1.6150
May 178:30 PM CDTEF1Custer, NE0.192$15,000
May 178:36 PM CDTEF0Meade, KS1.550
May 178:37 PM CDTEF3Meade, KS29.6600$500,000
May 178:46 PM CDTEF0Clark, KS0.425
May 179:30 PM CDTEF2Ford, KS14.9875
May 1710:19 PM CDTEF2Edwards, KS10.9565
May 1711:28 PM CDTUnratedPawnee, KS0.850
May 1711:30 PM CDTUnratedBarton, KS0.250

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.