Tornadoes · United States · Nebraska · 2004

F0 tornado, Page to Ewing, Nebraska, July 15, 2004

Name: F0 tornado, Page to Ewing, Nebraska, July 15, 2004
Start: 2004-07-16T00:00:00.000Z
Location: Page to Ewing, Nebraska

From Page to Ewing, this F0 tornado ran 1.0 miles across Holt County on July 15, 2004, touching down at 7:00 PM CDT and reaching 20 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

F040 to 72 mphthis tornado
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
F173 to 112 mph
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
F2113 to 157 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
F3158 to 206 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
F4207 to 260 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
F5261 to 318 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating: F0
Date: July 15, 2004
Touchdown: 7:00 PM CDT (00:00 UTC)
Path length: 1.0 miles (1.6 km)
Path width: 20 yards (18 m)
Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
County: Holt County
Touchdown point: 42.300, -98.470
Lift-off point: 42.270, -98.450
Record number: 1387

What the Weather Service recorded

The tornado touched down in a cornfield and overturned a center pivot irrigation system as it moved southeast.

The tornado touched town in open rangeland with no damage.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

12 minutes of warning. NWS LBF issued a tornado warning for this county at 23:48 UTC, 12 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 00:15 UTC.

Issued (UTC)	Expired	Product	Office
23:01 UTC	00:00 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF
23:48 UTC	00:15 UTC	Tornado Warning	LBF
00:14 UTC	01:00 UTC	Tornado Warning	LBF

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 20:15 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Jul 15, 3:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
     THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES FROM NEAR VALENTINE TO
OGALLALA AND HOLDREGE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AS
WELL.
     TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS IN
FROM THE EAST. THEN A FAIRLY RAPID RECOVERY IS EXPECTED, AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
     CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INITIAL FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUT WESTERN NEBRASKA UNDER A STRONG
CAP AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN MONDAY.

     FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, AND NEBRASKA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ACTIVE FASTER FLOW AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SEMI-PERMANENT SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA. THE NET RESULT OF THAT SCENARIO IS CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY IN ONE
PART OF THE NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA OR ANOTHER.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
     HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES. ONE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF VALENTINE AND OGALLALA
SEPARATED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FROM THOSE IN THE 50S ANOTHER EAST
OF AINSWORTH, BROKEN BOW AND HOLDREGE SEPARATED SEVENTIES FROM 60S.
THE GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED A PLUME OF ABOUT 35MM
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPRINGER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 2:55 PM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-161100-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...IN AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH IN BROWN COUNTY...TO
BIG SPRINGS IN DEUEL COUNTY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF WYOMING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL RESULT IN
DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OUT WEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM CDT EAST OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE IN CHERRY COUNTY...TO BIG SPRINGS IN DEUEL COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT.

MASEK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
554 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             7 ENE NORTH PLATTE      41.17N 100.65W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            CORRECTION FOR TIME OF EVENT

&&

JMC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
556 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             6 E NORTH PLATTE        41.13N 100.66W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        LINCOLN            NE   STORM CHASER

            MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 55MPH

&&

JMC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:17 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             4 W OCONTO              41.14N 99.84W
07/15/2004  0.88 INCH        CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND A LITTLE LARGER HAILSTONES WITH
            STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

JMC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:23 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             16 NE ONEILL           42.62N 98.42W
07/15/2004  1.75 INCH        HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

JMC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:30 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 SE CALLAWAY           41.22N 99.82W
07/15/2004  1.00 INCH        CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

JMC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 6:58 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
658 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TORNADO          4 N PAGE                42.46N 98.42W
07/15/2004                   HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO WAS REPORTED 4 NORTH AND 1 EAST OF PAGE BY
            TRAINED SPOTTERS FROM EWING.

&&

JMC

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Omaha, NE (KOAX), 00:00Z

0.0 hours before the tornado, 204 km from the path. July 16, 2004.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2128 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -136 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 3557 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 983 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.9
Supercell composite: 10.6
0-3 km lapse rate: 6.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Omaha, NE (KOAX), 12:00Z

12.0 hours after it, 204 km from the path. July 16, 2004.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1350 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -16 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 625 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.2
Supercell composite: -1.3
0-3 km lapse rate: 4.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Report	Where	County	Remark
23:28 UTC	FUNNEL CLOUD	8 Nw Orchard	Holt, NE
23:28 UTC	FUNNEL CLOUD	8 Nw Orchard	Holt, NE
23:50 UTC	TORNADO	4 N Page	Holt, NE	TORNADO WAS REPORTED 4 NORTH AND 1 EAST OF PAGE BY TRAINED SPOTTERS FROM EWING.
23:54 UTC	TORNADO	8 N Orchard	Knox, NE
23:54 UTC	TORNADO	8 N Orchard	Knox, NE
00:00 UTC	TORNADO	3 Ne Page	Holt, NE	IRRIGATION TOWER DESTROYED
00:00 UTC	TORNADO	6 Wnw Ewing	Holt, NE	TORNADO LIFTED AT 705 CDT

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the track Every 2004 tornado in Nebraska Every tornado in Nebraska since 1950 Warnings in force in Nebraska now The forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 15, 2004

5 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Date	Time	Rating	Where	Path (mi)	Width (yd)	Damage
July 15	5:18 PM CDT	F0	Charles Mix, SD	10.0	400
July 15	6:50 PM CDT	F1	Holt, NE	1.0	20	$40,000
July 15	5:54 PM MDT	F0	Alamosa, CO	1.0	75
July 15	6:54 PM CDT	F0	Knox, NE	0.1	80
July 15	8:01 PM CDT	F0	Burke, ND	1.0	20

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.