EF1 tornado, Warsaw to Moland, Minnesota, April 28, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
154 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tornado Watch in SW MN likely to be expanded eastwards as threat
progresses eastwards this afternoon and evening. All hazards
possible with large hail, strong winds, and potential longer track
tornadoes possible.

- Quiet weather after Monday with cooler temperatures through
  the weekend, warming above normal next week.

- Little to no chance for rainfall through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

An area of horizontal convective roll clouds are present on
satellite imagery across SW MN. Some agitated CU have blossomed
further west along a pre-frontal trough. These have quickly
developed into thunderstorms across far eastern South Dakota &
southwest Minnesota. These storms have prompted a Tornado Watch
across portions of SW/W/WC Minnesota. Additional watches may be
required downstream (east).

The storms across E SD/SW MN will continue to intensify over the
next few hours with a few becoming severe capable of producing
damaging winds/large hail/tornadoes. The atmospheric recovery with
in the pre-frontal trough contains surface instability values of
1500 to 2500+ J/kg and favorable effective shear (40+ kts). Surface
temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with sfc Tds in the mid to
upper 60s. There is weak capping ahead of the pre-frontal trough
that may erode by mid afternoon & support additional convective
initiation. Hi-res guidance has remained inconsistent with what
exactly evolves this afternoon. Current forecast thoughts suggest
we'll see a line of embedded supercells form and track from W MN to
S MN over the next several hours. These storms will be in the "best"
environment capable of supporting all severe hazards, including
potential for a strong tornadoes. These storms may cycle and
continue to produce severe as they track ENE. Central Minnesota and
western Wisconsin remain in play. Additional convection should
develop closer to the sfc low pressure with a isolated to scattered
strong to severe storms too. These storms should be capable of
producing damaging wind, large hail, and a tornado or two as well
but the better environment for tornadoes is across S MN/N IA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Please see Update section above for more details about ongoing
severe weather, including potential for further severe weather this
afternoon and evening...

Tuesday through this weekend...

Wrap around showers are expected on the western side of the tilting
upper level trough early on Tuesday as the storms will have pushed
east of the region and over the Great Lakes overnight. Winds behind
the surface front out of the northwest will bring in some cooler air
which looks to linger over the next few days as high pressure keeps
the airmass stagnant until later in the week, at which point we
quickly turn things around with warmer temperatures into the weekend
and beyond. As the upper level trough migrates eastwards, our 500-
300mb flows will flatten out and become zonal with the left entrance
of the upper level jet streak migrating towards east-central
Wisconsin, aiding subsidence alongside surface high pressure. We
could see some isolated drizzle or weak showers on Thursday as a
broad upper level trough swings through central Canada, with subtle
height falls along the far southern fringe providing just enough
omega to squeeze out some droplets. Given subsidence the few days
before, PWAT values will be low and we will have surface level dry
air to overcome such that anything more than a few hundredths would
be an achievement given the meager forcing. Dry conditions resume on
Friday with a western CONUS ridge building through the weekend with
weak southerly flow at the surface advecting some warmer air towards
the area and upper level flow become northwesterly on the eastern
side of the ridge. The southerly surface winds and ridge will lock
in some warmer temperatures as we head into next week, with
ensembles favoring temperatures reaching into the 80s early next
week and not looking to stop through the first week of May.

In terms of rainfall and active weather, bigger systems remain
absent with longer range ensemble membership showing quite a bit of
variance into next week with roughly 30 to 40 percent of members
within the GEFS showing a chance for some stronger rainfall and
perhaps some storms by the middle of next week. Given the time
range, this is fairly close to climatology such that there should
not be too much stock placed within this for now as we will need to
get within the 7 day time range to truly build some confidence in
our next major system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening from west to east
across all sites. OVC ceilings will become BKN/SCT near RWF and is
anticipated to trend eastward over the next few hours. However, TSRA
has already developed west of AXN and RWF to which will impact all
sites over the next several hours. Have tightened up a few
tempo groupings slightly based off of current reflectivity. Most
sites can expect TSRA to clear after 03z although wrap around
-SHRA is possible through 12z tomorrow morning. Southerly winds
will increase this afternoon with gusts between 25-35kts. Sites
can expect a southwesterly veer in winds by 22-02z during
frontal passage then becoming lighter out of the northwest
tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...A line of convection has developed near the MN/SD border.
Continuing to monitor forward progress but may need to push current
tempo timing up sooner.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA possible prior to 12z. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SSE 10-15 kts.
THU...MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

UPDATE...BPH
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Dunleavy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and early
evening. There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms (level
4 of 5) across much of the area. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes are likely. A few strong tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

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