Tornadoes · United States · Minnesota · 2015

EF0 tornado, Conception, Minnesota, July 18, 2015

This EF0 tornado ran 0.0 miles across Wabasha County on July 18, 2015, touching down at 2:02 AM CDT and reaching 25 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $15,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
July 18, 2015
Touchdown
2:02 AM CDT (07:02 UTC)
Lifted
2:03 AM CDT (07:03 UTC)
On the ground
1 minutes
Path length
0.0 miles (0.0 km)
Path width
25 yards (23 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$15,000
Crop damage
$2,000
County
Wabasha County
Touchdown point
44.242, -92.094
Lift-off point
44.242, -92.094
Record number
1507180102-01

The damage survey

2 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS ARX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 65 mph.

  • 3 of the 4 silo tops in the foreground were taken off by the tornado.
  • Corn showed a convergent path for about 100 yds but was not flattened. Tires in foreground were thrown.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A line of severe thunderstorms moved across southeast Minnesota during the early morning hours of July 18th. One of these storms produced a small, short-lived tornado southeast of Theilman (Wabasha County). The tornado moved through a corn field and across one farmstead removing the tops off of two silos, blowing in garage doors and moved several tires off a sileage pile. Besides the tornado, the storms also produced damaging winds that blew down trees in Millville (Wabasha County).

A small, short-lived tornado damaged some corn, removed the tops off of two silos, blew in garage doors and moved tires off a sileage pile.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

5 minutes of warning. NWS ARX issued a tornado warning for this county at 06:57 UTC, 5 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 07:19 UTC.

The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 07:00 UTC and running to 08:55 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
06:23 UTC07:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningARX
06:57 UTC07:19 UTCTornado WarningARX
07:00 UTC08:55 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchARX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Marginal Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 06:00 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), 00:00Z

7.0 hours before the tornado, 137 km from the path. July 18, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2015-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 888 joules per kilogram, CIN -162, lifted condensation level 1752 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2015-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 29 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 30 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
888 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-162 J/kg
Surface CAPE
2207 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1752 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.0
0-3 km lapse rate
6.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), 12:00Z

5.0 hours after it, 137 km from the path. July 18, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2015-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -77583, lifted condensation level 1722 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2015-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 181 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 35 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-77583 J/kg
Surface CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1722 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
203 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
3.8 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Winona Municipal (ONA), 36 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
05:13 UTC73.471.60° 0 kt1007.1
05:34 UTC7773.40° 0 kt1007.8
05:53 UTC7773.4140° 4 kt1007.5
06:14 UTC7771.6150° 5 kt1007.5
06:34 UTC7771.6150° 4 kt1006.8
06:53 UTC7773.4160° 6 kt1006.1
07:14 UTC7773.4150° 5 kt1005.8VCTS
07:34 UTC71.666.2300° 22 kt361008.5+TSRA
07:53 UTC69.866.2330° 10 kt231009.8+TSRA
08:14 UTC69.868310° 10 kt171009.5TSRA
08:33 UTC69.868320° 7 kt1008.8-TSRA
08:54 UTC69.8680° 0 kt1008.8-RA

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 06:59 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
06:33 UTCTSTM WND DMGMazeppaWabasha, MNPINE TREE SNAPPED OFF. A FEW OTHER TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH SEVERAL BRANCHES. WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.
06:54 UTCTSTM WND DMGMillvilleWabasha, MNTREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 2 IN MILLVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.
06:54 UTCTSTM WND GST 47RochesterOlmsted, MNMEASURED AT THE MAYO HELIPAD.
07:00 UTCTSTM WND GST 52OronocoOlmsted, MN
07:02 UTCTORNADO6 Se TheilmanWabasha, MNDAMAGE TO A FARM INCLUDED SILO TOPS REMOVED...GARAGE DOORS BLOWN IN...TIRES MOVED. 25 YD WIDE...100 YARD LONG PATH THROUGH CORN SHOWED WEAK TORNADO TRACK. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATED.
07:05 UTCTSTM WND DMGKelloggWabasha, MNA FEW TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 42 NEAR KELLOGG. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.
07:07 UTCTSTM WND DMGWabashaWabasha, MNA FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN LAKE CITY AND WABASHA. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.
07:07 UTCTSTM WND DMGWabashaWabasha, MNA FEW TREES RERORTED DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN LAKE CITY AND WABASHA. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.
07:17 UTCTSTM WND GST 554 Se MinneiskaWinona, MNMINNESOTA CITY LOCK & DAM DAM 5

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in MinnesotaEvery tornado in Minnesota since 1950Warnings in force in Minnesota nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 18, 2015

5 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
July 181:00 AM CDTEF0Ramsey, MN1.975$500,000
July 181:52 AM CDTEF1Dunn, WI5.350$10,000
July 182:19 PM CDTEF0McHenry, IL0.150
July 182:38 PM CDTEF0McHenry, IL0.150
July 182:40 PM CDTEF1Rock, WI4.950$180,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.