EF0 tornado, Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, August 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EXTREME NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK VORTS DROPPING AROUND THE ERN CONUS TROF
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA DELTAS THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW COMBO OF THESE FEATURES IS HELPING PRODUCE
MULTIPLE POCKETS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER OUR EXTREME SERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...ANOTHER CROSSING
THE NER ZONES...AND A THIRD TO OUR NW OVER NERN TX. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE REGION IN A VERY MOIST STATE (KLCH/KLIX RAOBS BOTH AOA
125% OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND 80 PERCENT MRH) WITH MINIMAL TO NO
CAPPING. MODIFIED KLCH/KCRP SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
EITHER CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OR TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. ADJUSTED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON POPS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN AND NRN
ZONES. GOOD CHANCE THE MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WILL NEED ADJUSTING
BUT HAVE LEFT THEM ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE A GENERAL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RESULT IS A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THAT HAS HELPED SLIP A SURFACE COOL FRONT DOWN CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE RED RIVER BASIN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

GOOD MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PUSHING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS NEARING RAPIDES PARISH.

DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAX
DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
STORMS DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES ALONG WITH
MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...STORMS MIGHT HAVE
A LITTLE EXTRA KICK IN THEM. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK THAT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

WOULD EXPECT BOUNDARY TO HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY THAT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT COME AROUND TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
ECMWF MOVES ANOTHER SURFACE TROF INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
GFS DOES NOT. WILL LEAVE POPS AT THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND HOPE
THAT LATER SOLUTION WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AVIATION...
MAIN STORY FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR THE KAEX
TAF SITE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TODAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  73  92  75  92 /  50  30  30  20  20
KBPT  94  74  92  75  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
KAEX  92  70  94  73  94 /  60  20  30  20  20
KLFT  91  72  92  74  93 /  60  30  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-091115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE RED RIVER BASIN AND STALL
ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S NEW IBERIA          29.99N 91.82W
08/08/2008                   IBERIA             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OF
            WIND DAMAGE ALONG JEFFERSON TERRACE BLVD IN NEW IBERIA.
            NUMEROUS CARS WITH WINDOWS BROKEN OUT WITH DAMAGE TO A
            SHOPPING CENTER. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

LAZ054-082000-
ST. MARY LA-
232 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN ST. MARY PARISH UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

AT 231 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PATTERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MORGAN CITY BY 245 PM CDT
  AMELIA BY 250 PM CDT
  MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BY 300 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING
BE ISSUED.

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     WATER SPOUT      22 SSE PECAN ISLAND     29.37N 92.27W
08/08/2008                   GMZ452             LA   PUBLIC

            PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 78 REPORTS 2 LARGE
            WATERSPOUTS 10 NE.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TORNADO          1 SE NEW IBERIA         29.99N 91.81W
08/08/2008                   IBERIA             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** SEVERAL REPORTS AND SIGHTINGS FROM THE
            PUBLIC...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND MEDIA OF A TORNADO
            TOUCHING DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF ST PETER AND LEWIS
            STREETS IN NEW IBERIA. 10 CARS HAD WINDOWS BROKEN OUT IN
            WINN DIXIE PARKING LOT. FENCES BLOWN DOWN IN AREA. ROOF
            OF A FUNERAL HOME ON JEFFERSON TERRACE BLVD WAS BLOWN OFF
            WITH ONE MINOR INJURY OCCURRING INSIDE.

&&

SHAMBURGER