Tornadoes · United States · Kansas · 2021
EF0 tornado, Aubry, Kansas, March 15, 2021
This EF0 tornado ran 1.4 miles across Johnson County on March 15, 2021, touching down at 4:30 PM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $100,000 of property damage.
The rating scale
Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.
EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mph
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.
The record
- Rating
- EF0
- Date
- March 15, 2021
- Touchdown
- 4:30 PM CDT (21:30 UTC)
- Lifted
- 4:34 PM CDT (21:34 UTC)
- On the ground
- 4 minutes
- Path length
- 1.4 miles (2.2 km)
- Path width
- 50 yards (46 m)
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $100,000
- County
- Johnson County
- Touchdown point
- 38.774, -94.699
- Lift-off point
- 38.780, -94.675
- Record number
- 2103151530-01
The damage survey
8 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS EAX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 85 mph.
- Looks like wind got under front soffit and caused some roof uplift.
- Collapse of doors caused back wall to blow out.
- Eyewitness report of a brief tornado just west of HWY 291, along 203rd St.
Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.
What the Weather Service recorded
On the afternoon of March 15, 2021 a weak tornado formed near 199th and HWY 69 in rural Johnson County. The storm moved through a neighborhood and caused some damage to the residences. Several outbuildings were also heavily damaged or destroyed, but the tornado was deemed an EF-0. The tornado crossed HWY 69 and dissipated near the Kansas and Missouri state line.
The storm moved through a neighborhood and caused some damage to the residences. Several outbuildings were also heavily damaged or destroyed, but the tornado was deemed an EF-0. The most dramatic damage noted was a roof blown off the top of a garage where wind compromised the large entry doors and removed the roof from inside the building. The tornado crossed HWY 69 and dissipated near the Kansas and Missouri state line.
From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.
The warnings
35 minutes of warning. NWS EAX issued a tornado warning for this county at 20:55 UTC, 35 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 21:30 UTC.
| Issued (UTC) | Expired | Product | Office |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20:46 UTC | 21:15 UTC | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX |
| 20:55 UTC | 21:30 UTC | Tornado Warning | EAX |
| 21:26 UTC | 21:49 UTC | Tornado Warning | EAX |
Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.
The forecast that day
The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Marginal Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:49 UTC.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.
The air that afternoon
The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.
Topeka, KS (KTOP), 12:00Z
9.5 hours before the tornado, 86 km from the path. March 15, 2021.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -597 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 685 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 126 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 178 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 5.4 K/km
Topeka, KS (KTOP), 00:00Z
2.5 hours after it, 86 km from the path. March 16, 2021.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -79818 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 930 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 67 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 138 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 170 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 6.4 K/km
What was reported nearby
Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Report | Where | County | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:04 UTC | HAIL 1 | Spring Hill | Johnson, KS | |
| 21:21 UTC | HAIL 1 | 3 Ne Spring Hill | Johnson, KS | REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.). |
| 21:30 UTC | TORNADO | 3 W Stillwell | Johnson, KS | REPORT OF A TORNADO NEAR 199TH AND SWITZER. |
| 21:32 UTC | HAIL 0.5 | 2 Sw Stanley | Johnson, KS | REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.). |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.
This ground now
The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in KansasEvery tornado in Kansas since 1950Warnings in force in Kansas nowThe forecast where you are
The other tornadoes of March 15, 2021
2 more were confirmed in the United States that day.
What this means
Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.