EF2 tornado, Haubstadt to Buckskin, Indiana, May 14, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.UPDATE...
REMNANT MCV INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION HAVING A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME GENERATING PERSISTENT CORES WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
ROTATION. THE LIMITING FACTOR ALL ALONG WAS ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND FIELDS FROM 700-300 MB IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE NOT
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FOR SPEED SHEAR...WHILE UNIDIRECTIONAL.
ALREADY CLEARED SE MISSOURI COUNTIES. WE MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...IF THEY CAN TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
IN THE COMPACTING MCV AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER. BUT AT
THIS TIME...RETURNS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
STILL DECENT...WITH AN UNSTABLE FETCH INTO THE CONVECTION FROM
WEST KY AND SE MO. CELLS MAY STILL INTENSIFY IN WATCH AREA.

ALSO UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE UPCOMING 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE.

...NOLES...

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MCV MOVING INTO SE MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO OUR SE MISSOURI COUNTIES. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...CAP IS SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL
PRESENT...WITH NIL ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RUNNING 1500-2000 SURFACE BASED WITH
LI/S BELOW -6.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA...BUT WITHOUT A FOCUS FOR
LIFT...MAY BE HARD TO GEN UP CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MCV AND ATTENDANT FORCING TO ITS SOUTH
MAY HAVE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER FEATURES ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND POTENTIALLY OUTFLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UP NEAR INTERSTATE 64 FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH.

SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS IN A
MODERATE RISK AREA...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIALLY REMNANT
BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. IN THE VERTICAL...SPEED SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN A 30-40KT PROFILE FROM
700-300MB. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH WE MAY SEE DISCRETE CELLS...
PERSISTENCE MAY NOT BE AS PROMINENT. SHOULD BE EVOLUTIONARY
TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO SRN ILLINOIS
AND SE MISSOURI AFTER 00Z...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POPS
WILL GO INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE...AND MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE
LINEAR AND BROAD SCALE COVERAGE WISE THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A LOWERING THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER LATE...AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH TO THE OHIO
RIVER AND WEAKENS AND STALLS...WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE CANNOT ELIMINATE POPS FROM
ANY PERIOD. BUT THE NEXT BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY WITH
A POTENTIAL MCS...AND WITH THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE OPS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR THE MOST PART...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION.

WILL LET WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN WIND DAMAGE
AREAS OF SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS...WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MONITOR KEVV AND KOWB FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY ON. BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL BE LATER ON AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SHORT TERM...KPAH AND KCGI
TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BE FREE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AS THEY ENTER THE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME
LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR RIVER FLOOD
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT.

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