F0 tornado, Metamora, Illinois, March 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
115 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
IOWA...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN MIDWEST. OBVIOUS VERY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE
TAIL OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.

12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW FRIDAY AND HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS. WILL TEND
TO GO WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
THREAT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE AND REASONABLE...SO
WILL GO WITH A BLEND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TONIGHT...18Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -5. WINDS
WERE ALSO STRONG AS EXPECTED WITH 50+ KNOT VELOCITIES EXTENDING
NEARLY AS LOW AS 800 MB. SOME TURNING OF THE WIND IS NOTED BELOW 850
MB. DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL REMAIN GOOD UNTIL FROPA
THIS EVENING...SO WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT THIS EVENING.
AFTER FROPA WE SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY SLOTTED AS THE UPPER AND
SURFACE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE
MEAN TROF AND START TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (THIS
LOW WILL NOT IMPACT REGION UNTIL FRIDAY).

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE DEFORMATION
ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THE MEAN TROF AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND BRING A RETURN TO QUIETER WEATHER.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A BIT MORE SPREAD
SHOWS UP TOWARD WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW RATHER ZONAL THROUGH MONDAY...
THEN A VIGOROUS WAVE DIVES INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN WITH THE UPPER WAVE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.

&&

BAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-311200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-
MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...DECATUR...GALESBURG...
HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...LINCOLN...PEORIA...
SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 45 MPH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-311200-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...MATTOON AND SHELBYVILLE
1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 45 MPH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR ESDA DIRECTORS AND THE MEDIA WILL BE CONDUCTED
AT 1100 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

HUETTL/HJS/AUTEN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             BARTONVILLE             40.64N 89.66W
03/30/2005  1.50 INCH        PEORIA             IL   OTHER FEDERAL

            1 1/2 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY PERSONNEL AT THE AIR GUARD
            BASE IN BARTONVILLE.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             METAMORA                40.79N 89.36W
03/30/2005  0.75 INCH        WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            0.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN METAMORA.

0302 PM     HAIL             1 E GERMANTOWN HILLS    40.77N 89.45W
03/30/2005  1.00 INCH        WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF GERMANTOWN HILLS.

&&

OUSLEY