EF0 tornado, Miramar to Oakland Park, Florida, February 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
212 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 138 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

With the retreat of the boundary northward late this morning into
the early afternoon, convection has started to overspread the
peninsula including a few embedded cells. With the development of
the passing low pressure, there could be several hours of rainfall
to go today. Temperatures have made it into at least the lower 70s
across most of the area with some mid to upper 70s sneaking into
southern Miami-Dade County where the environment is slightly more
favorable for more stout convection.

As the surface low pressure slides into the Atlantic waters,
increasing westerly to northwesterly wind will allow for drier,
cooler air to start entering the region. Clouds will linger into
Monday with the potential for some lingering convection along the
east coast that should move into the Atlantic waters before the
end of the morning. Temperatures will be chilly, struggling to
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Depending on the track of the
low, the wind could be strong enough to warrant the consideration
of a Wind Advisory for portions of the area on Monday. The latest
guidance is trending towards windier conditions due to a more
southerly low track and the potential of a wake low developing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

The majority of the rest of the week should remain fairly stable
as broad and deep high pressure firmly establishes over the SE
CONUS, with little to no rain expected each day. Temperatures will
remain near or just below normals through the middle of the week
as cool air advection prevails. Expect highs to remain in the
upper 60s north to low 70s elsewhere through Wednesday, then
gradually warming up into the mid-upper 70s towards the weekend.
Lows will likely drop into the 40s/50s through Thursday and then
warming up on Friday as the high shifts to the east and southerly
flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

Sub-VFR through much of the period with bouts of IFR/LIFR cigs and
vsbys. TS possible this afternoon which may require short-fused
TEMPOs. Gusty winds with convection today will become breezy and
northwesterly tonight into Monday morning. Gradual improvement out
of IFR/LIFR may take longer than current forecast period at some
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

Increasing westerly to northwesterly wind in the wake of the
passing area of low pressure will result in hazardous conditions
developing with seas up to 12 feet in the Gulfstream and frequent
wind gusts to Gale force over the Atlantic waters. A Gale Warning
is now in effect for the Atlantic waters with Small Craft
Advisories elsewhere. Elevated seas could linger into mid-week
with conditions gradually improving.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 138 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

An elevated rip current risk will continue along the Atlantic
beaches through a good portion of the week. The rip current risk
will increase along the Gulf beaches in the wake of the cold front
today into early portions of the week as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            60  70  53  71 /  70  20  10   0
West Kendall     58  72  49  72 /  70  20  10   0
Opa-Locka        59  72  52  73 /  70  20  10   0
Homestead        59  72  51  72 /  80  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  59  70  53  71 /  70  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  60  70  53  71 /  80  20  10   0
Pembroke Pines   59  72  52  72 /  70  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  57  68  51  70 /  70  30  10  10
Boca Raton       59  71  51  72 /  70  30  10  10
Naples           56  68  50  69 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday
     for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
808 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
191315-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
808 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

...Strong to Severe Showers and Thunderstorms Today...
...Developing Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Palm Beaches and Gulf coast.

Heavy Rainfall: Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to impact the area through most of the morning and
afternoon hours today. Localized flooding could be an issue,
especially for low-lying or poor drainage areas of the east coast
metro. 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected with localized higher
totals possible.

Thunderstorms: There could be a few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, with highest risk across southern
portions of the area.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain wind gusts up to 60
mph especially across the southern areas.

Tornado: An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest
thunderstorms mainly across the southern portion of the peninsula.

Waterspouts: An isolated waterspout is possible with the strongest
thunderstorms in the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

Marine: Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly and will
increase to 20 to 25 kts this afternoon across the Atlantic waters.
Winds will also increase over the Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters
tonight creating hazardous marine conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The rip current risk will be increasing across the Atlantic beaches
during the early to middle portion of the week. An elevated risk of
rip currents will continue on Monday for the Gulf beaches. High surf
will develop along the Atlantic beaches, particularly off the Palm
Beaches for Monday.

Hazardous marine conditions will continue over the Atlantic waters
through the middle of the week as winds remain elevated and seas
continue to build due to a developing northeasterly swell. Wind gusts
to gale force are possible early Monday morning through Monday night.
Wave heights in the Gulfstream could build in excess of 10 feet.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
254 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

FLZ073-074-173-182030-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
254 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

...A gusty shower will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade County
through 330 PM EST...

At 253 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a gusty shower over Miccosukee Resort, or 8 miles northwest of
Kendall, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Homestead, Coral Gables, South Miami, Homestead
General Airport, The Redland, Kendall, Miami Gardens, North Miami,
Doral, North Miami Beach, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest,
Opa-Locka, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, and Medley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2595 8035 2594 8020 2549 8039 2548 8058
      2575 8062 2594 8052 2595 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 237DEG 37KT 2574 8047

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MFL

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