EF0 tornado, Kissimmee Arpt, Florida, June 14, 2017

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
10 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...A surge nwd of LL moisture from the south peninsula
is marked by an advancing area of showers and isold storms over the
Treasure Cst. HRRR guid shows the current activity advancing Nwd
into Brevard Co before midday. East coast breeze boundary
development will be disrupted/delayed by this activity over the
Space and Treasure Coasts this morning. Current forecast will remain
in place attm.

From prev disc...

Somewhat drier air (NR H7 and above) as indicated on early sounding
points to later convective initiation along the east coast sea
breeze during the early afternoon. The GFS shows higher moisture
advecting in from the south during the afternoon though, so shower
and storm coverage is then expected to increase.

The highest rain chances today should be across the interior
(60%), especially across the south. Will go with 50% right along
the coast, which represents a higher coverage compared to the past
few days. This looks reasonable given the change to a south/southwest
steering flow. The main storm threat will be frequent lightning
strikes in a few strong storms. Storm motion will remain slow,
mainly north/northeast 10 mph or less so there will be a chance
for quick 2-3 inch downpours too. The presence of some mid level
dry air should also bring a potential for strong wind gusts where
the most vigorous boundary interactions occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
A chance for showers or storms exists this morning from KSUA-KMLB.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through late morning. The models
indicate sea breeze showers and storms will hold off until about 18z
and probably until 19-20z at the interior terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Axis of subtropical high pressure ridge will
settle over the waters. This will produce a southeast/south wind
flow. Speeds will be up to around 10 knots with seas 2-3 feet.
Expect isolated-scattered showers/storms this morning. Some of
the scattered afternoon storms over the mainland may push back to
the coast through early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Shingle Creek at Campbell (SHIF1) had fallen slightly since Tuesday
to 1.87 feet below Action Stage as of 9 AM. Any heavy rain over the
basin this afternoon would reverse this trend though, so levels will
have to be closely monitored.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/PG/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-142100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1015 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Daytime heating and boundary interactions will lead to scattered
to numerous afternoon thunderstorms. Shower and storms will
continue to form along east coast sea breeze through the early
afternoon. The activity will then gradually build inland while
increasing in coverage and intensity through the late afternoon
and early evening. Isolated strong storms are anticipated where the
strongest boundary interactions occur. Frequent lightning strikes
will occur and gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph are also possible.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Storm motion will be slowly to the north, so a few of the
stronger storms will be capable of producing 2 or 3 inches of rain
and considerable water ponding on roadways.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A small long period swell will produce a moderate rip current
risk. The strongest seaward pull should occur from mid afternoon
through early evening due to tidal effects. Only swim in the ocean
near a lifeguard.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Showers and a few storms will move northward at 5 to 10 knots
near the coast and over the Atlantic through early afternoon,
but scattered stronger storms in the afternoon will impact inland
bodies of water. The gust potential with the afternoon storms
will be around 35 knots and a few could also affect the
intracoastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Little, if any, interruption of the very moist conditions is
expected. This will lead to scattered to numerous storms each day.
The highest coverage should shift towards the western half of the
peninsula early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated. Rainfall observers are
requested to report measured rain amounts of three inches or
greater to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Lascody/Glitto