EF0 tornado, Rocky Creek to Town N Country, Florida, March 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1136 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...AND
POLK COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH LEE COUNTY. THIS WATCH ALSO INCLUDES
THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH THROUGH
BONITA BEACH AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. THE WATCH
EXPIRES AT 00Z AS OF NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/

..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AND THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST
FOCUS FOR TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS PUSH TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IF THE LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MIX OUT AND
ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR...SO THIS AREA IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE
MOST LIFT AND BUOYANCY TO DEVELOP TODAY. FOR THE NORTH...ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND TEND TO KEEP
THAT REGION LESS UNSTABLE...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STILL IN PLACE
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP REGARDLESS...IF ALL THE
INGREDIENTS CAN LINE UP. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME
SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BOWING SEGMENTS...BUT COULD ALSO SEE SOME HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND -13 AND DECENT SHEAR AND
HELICITY VALUES. ANY SEA-BREEZE OR OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER CELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO.

HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF RAIN FOR
TODAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR TODAY ACCORDINGLY...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS.

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LINGER NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. RA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
AFFECT TPA AND PIE AROUND 16Z. TERMINALS FURTHER SOUTH CAN EXPECT
VCTS TO BEGIN AROUND 18-20Z. WILL UPDATE TAFS WITH TEMPO GROUPS
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEGINNING AROUND
22-00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  59  69  49 /  90  30  20   0
FMY  81  65  76  52 /  80  30  20   0
GIF  77  60  73  47 /  70  30  20   0
SRQ  75  64  71  51 /  90  30  20   0
BKV  71  52  69  42 /  90  30  20   0
SPG  73  63  69  54 /  90  30  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...05/CARLISLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
448 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-071000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
448 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AT AREA
BEACHES...INCREASING THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS CAN
PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER OUT INTO DEEPER WATER. USE CAUTION WHEN
SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED BEACHES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG GULF LOW AND COLD
FRONT TODAY...WITH WINDS OF UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
EXPECTED OFFSHORE. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FLEMING