EF0 tornado, Miami Beach, Florida, June 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS HAS NOW CONVERTED TO THE WET SIDE WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... AT LEAST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUNS. THIS MORE MOIST TURN OF EVENTS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO WHAT
WAS FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW A LIGHT WIND REGIME TODAY WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES,
A MOIST AIRMASS, AND UNCAPPED FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING MAX
HEATING, ALL OF THE EAST COAST METROS AND MOST OF THE INTERIOR CAN
EXPECT NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SITUATION WILL LIKELY REPEAT ITSELF ON TUESDAY, BUT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WITH A MORE SOUTH BOUND STORM MOTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT
THIS TIME THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED TO LIKELY, BUT NEED TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY
ON THE MODELS PART SINCE SUNDAYS 0Z RUN WASNT NEAR AS WET. THE
WET FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS THOUGH RANDOM SHRA E GULFMEX MAY BRING TEMPORARY
VCSH KAPF. VFR THROUGH 16Z ALL TERMINALS THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALLOW VCTS ALL TERMINALS THEN A
CONCENTRATION OF TSRA TOWARD THE SE COAST AS WHAT STEERING THERE IS
SENDS TSRA TOWARD KFLL...KFXE...KOPF...KMIA AND KTMB PRIMARILY.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND WAVES AT
4 FEET OR LESS, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY AND WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  75  87  75 / 60 30 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  86  77 / 60 30 60 30
MIAMI            88  75  87  75 / 60 30 60 30
NAPLES           89  74  90  73 / 40 20 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...04/TINGLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-182030-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
421 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
...SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY STRONG SOUTHEAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXTEND INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL, DIME-SIZED OR SMALLER, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 INCHES OR MORE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. $$