F2 tornado, Port Charlotte, Florida, June 21, 2006

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
113 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...DIURNAL EVENING CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLLISION OF THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVER
COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION MOVING WEST INTO THE ADJACENT GULF AND DISSIPATING
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MAY AGAIN
SEE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.

MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THE NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRIER
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TUTT
LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE DRIER AIR (PWS DECREASING TO 1.2-1.4) AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES (POPS 20% ON THURSDAY AND 20-30% ON FRIDAY) ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALBEIT LOW LIKELY
TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COASTAL ZONES FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH
LATE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW KEEPS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST. NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S FAR NORTH AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL/SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM(FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL DATA AGREES
IN KEEPING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND WESTERN
GULF AND SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO RETURN EACH AFTERNOON.
LATEST GFS/DGEX MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAHAMAS RESEMBLING A TROPICAL WAVE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEEPS
IT BLOCKED FROM THE NORTH BY THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY
MOVES IT INTO FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. DGEX IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW BUT
KEEPS IT NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL EARLY TO MAKE A CONCRETE DECISION IN TERMS
OF WHICH MODEL TO FOLLOW. CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS WILL BE
KEPT UNTIL FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER CONSENSUS.

IN GENERAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM
EACH AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND MAY
PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND DEPENDING ON HOW WEAK THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES. THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE OR AT
CLIMO VALUES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND...DEPENDING ON
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE STATE...AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL DOWN A LITTLE ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...MAY SEE A BRIEF EASTERLY SURGE IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE THE
NEXT FEW EVENINGS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARIES
MOVE OFFSHORE...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO HIGHLIGHTS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH
SOME REMNANT CONVECTION STILL LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. SOME
PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5SM IN HAZE ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FMY AND RSW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY
BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  92  75  91 /  20  20  10  20
FMY  73  93  74  92 /  10  20  10  30
GIF  74  93  73  92 /  10  10  10  20
SRQ  75  91  73  90 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  70  93  69  92 /  10  10   5  20
SPG  78  92  77  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
447 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REDUCE THE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WILL MEET THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE.

INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE...AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. BRIEF DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING.

REMEMBER: LIGHTNING KILLS  WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT
UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EVEN MORE DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY ARRIVE IN CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS
THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY REACH THE PENINSULA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS TOWARD LEVELS TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE JUNE...ABOUT
50 PERCENT OR MORE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAYS HAZARDS...GO TO

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL DAILY WEATHER HAZARDS LINK IN THE BLUE
MAP FRAME.

THIS WEEK IS ALSO NATIONAL LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK. ALL YOUR
QUESTIONS ABOUT LIGHTNING SAFETY ARE ANSWERED AT

HTTP://WWW.LIGHTINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
524 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FLZ065-212200-
LEE-
524 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEE COUNTY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM...WILL AFFECT WHISKEY CREEK AND
CAPE CORAL...UNTIL 600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

PRC