EF1 tornado, Crossett, Arkansas, April 18, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.UPDATE...SENT OUT UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEW TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 126 IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA (AT LEAST WEST OF A COLUMBUS...TO NEWTON...TO COLUMBIA
LINE). RISK FOR TORNADOES CURRENTLY DEEMED HIGHEST NORTH OF I-20 IN
THE WATCH AREA BUT OF COURSE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE
WATCH AREA. FULL PACKAGE UPDATE WILL BE COMING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BIGGEST CHANGE FROM LAST
NIGHT'S THINKING CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKER AND EARLIER DISSIPATING CAP. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CELLS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WHICH IS STILL SLATED OVER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BY EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEEPEN TODAY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT. REGIONAL
RADARS ARE ALREADY LIT UP THIS MORNING WITH A LONG LINE OF STORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY
DURING PRIME HEATING AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE INCLUDING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...MLCAPES
AROUND 1000J/KG...0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS AND 0-3KM SRH 200-400
M2/S2. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES
THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
HATCHED SHADING WARNING OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND/OR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH. THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
STILL HAS A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR STRONG TORNADOES IS LOWER THAN
IN THE MODERATE RISK.

THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL COME WITH THE SQUALL
LINE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SECONDARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ANY
DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
THIS TIMING OF THE LINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DELTA 4-6 PM...NEAR NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE 6 AM. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY AND GRENADA MISSISSIPPI.

THERE MAY BE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL END BY NOON. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. DEW POINTS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE UPPER 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO THE 40S IN ITS WAKE. THE SUN SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 60S AT MOST SITES.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST OVER
OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
BEING THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S AND PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS. /22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL GET COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WILL WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE EURO AND THE GFS HAVE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. BOTH MODELS AMPLIFY THIS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THE RAIN FASTER ON MONDAY EVENING FROM
THE WEST...WHILE THE EURO WAS SLOWER. OPTED TO GO AFTER THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION. THE EURO BRINGS IN CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING IT IN THE HWO AS WE FOCUS ON THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL
WITH A BLEND OF MAV GMOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ON POPS MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO EURO GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  53  62  39 /  24 100  12   4
MERIDIAN      86  57  65  38 /  16 100  21   4
VICKSBURG     84  51  64  36 /  65 100   9   4
HATTIESBURG   88  59  66  39 /  15 100  47   4
NATCHEZ       84  48  61  38 /  41 100  10   4
GREENVILLE    82  47  61  38 /  94 100   5   4
GREENWOOD     84  49  62  36 /  59 100   8   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036-040>042.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-191700-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
1155 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING  AS A POTENT SQUALL LINE AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE LINE MOVE INTO A UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS HIGH AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO
80 MPH...AND TORNADOES. THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES EXISTS. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A QUICK INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN A VERY
SHORT TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. SMALL
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS CAN EXPECT RISES IN WATER
LEVELS. THE TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE FROM
4PM TO 9PM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS REQUESTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAZ024>026-MSZ029>033-037>039-043>061-191700-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
1155 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...AS A POTENT SQUALL LINE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AN
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. AT LEAST A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE GREATER RISK OF THESE SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BUT SEVERE WEATHER
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH ALSO. A QUICK INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN A VERY SHORT TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS CAN EXPECT RISES IN WATER
LEVELS. THE TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE FROM 3PM TO
8PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE TIME FRAME FOR THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL BE
BETWEEN 7PM TO MIDNIGHT AND FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
BETWEEN 11PM AND 4AM FRIDAY MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS REQUESTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ062>066-072>074-191700-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
1155 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
A POTENT SQUALL LINE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AN UNSTABLE AND
SHEARED AIR MASS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH. ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. A QUICK INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN A VERY SHORT TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES. SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS CAN
EXPECT RISES IN WATER LEVELS. THE TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE FROM 12AM TO 4AM FRIDAY MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 TO
25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO
35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS REQUESTED
TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN/22