EF0 tornado, Pleasant Hill to Isbell, Alabama, February 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
916 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 743 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

[UPDATE 915 PM] A Tornado Watch has been issued for all of
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee and is in effect
through 4 AM CST Sunday. Make sure to stay weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings tonight!

Currently some light showers are being shown by radar out ahead
of the main line of storms that extends from Louisiana up through
western Tennessee and Kentucky. Both the soundings from Jackson,
MS and Birmingham, AL show a capping inversion aloft (especially
in JAN's). The instability is not as robust in BMX's sounding;
however, the instability may increase as the low level jet
increases tonight. For our area, there is ample bulk shear and Hi-
Res guidance also indicates that there may be a narrow corridor
of sufficient surface instability (and increased low-level lapse
rates) along and west of I-65 tonight. Although, with cold air
damming occurring to our east over the southern Appalachians, it
seems more likely that instability will be a bit more limited over
northeast Alabama overnight. This will be monitored over the next
few hours to see if this holds true.

Overall, the forecast has not changed too much, as we are still
anticipating a line of severe storms to move through the region
this evening and overnight. Damaging winds, heavy downpours, as
well as the potential for a few tornadoes are the main threats.
With an inch or less of rain forecast with the fast-moving line of
storms, nuisance flooding may be a concern (especially with the
rains we've received recently). Although, we are not expecting
widespread flooding at this time. We are going to keep an eye on
our rivers with this rainfall as well as downstream flow, as a
couple of our rivers remain in flood from this past week. As for
timing of the storms tonight, Hi-Res models suggest that our
current thinking (and most likely time) of the line moving
through our area of 10 PM over northwest Alabama and moving east
of our area between 3-4 AM.

Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings tonight,
especially ones that will wake you up!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

The line of storms will exit the area before sunrise Sunday
morning. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph will remain during the morning
before diminishing by around lunchtime. A colder and drier airmass
advects in from the NW on Sunday bringing in another shot of
cooler air into the TN Valley. Afternoon temperatures will only
be in the upper 40s with overnight lows dipping down into the mid
20s. Given the breezy conditions during the day, a flash freeze
overnight is not expected.

As the upper level trough axis associated with the storms Saturday
night pushes further east of the forecast area, a more zonal flow
pattern sets up across the Southeast to start the new work week.
Dry and below normal conditions continue on Monday with highs only
in the mid 40s and overnight lows once again dropping down into
the mid 20s. These temperatures are approximately 10 degrees below
the climatological normals for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

On Tuesday morning, an area of upper low pressure should be exiting
to the east from the Canadian Maritimes. West and south of this low,
a generally zonal upper flow should be in place over much of the
CONUS, with weak troughing across the western states. At this time,
an upper level system heading southward across Alberta will result
in an area of low pressure forming over the upper Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday. This system will bring more inclement weather
to the Tennessee Valley for the midweek. Before then, a strong
and cold surface high over Saskatchewan with sea level pressure in
the lower 1050s mb will exert its influence to the SE, and
continue a chilly trend across this area. With more clouds moving
in as the upper system forms, more limited direct sun will result
in highs only in the lower 50s, a bit cooler than average readings
around 58 degrees. These lower 50s will be the warmest temperature
of this period, as more colder air is forecast to arrive for the
mid and latter half of the week.

The upper system consolidating over the eastern plains and western
Great Lakes will bring a wintry mix across the area beginning Tue
night. The latest grids, based mainly on the NBM has a rain/snow mix
for over our Tennessee counties into NW Alabama, with a cold rain
more to the SE. On Wednesday, the mix of rain/snow will continue,
over similar areas of southern middle Tennessee to NW Alabama, with
showers more to the SE. With clouds, good precipitation chances and
cold air advection becoming more dominant, high temperatures for
the mid week will be colder, ranging from the mid/upper 30s for our
TN group and NW AL, with low/mid 40s more towards Marshall, Cullman
and southern DeKalb counties. The system should exit to the east
Wed night with precipitation tapering off from west to east. Went
with a faster track of the precip ending. Total snow amounts should
remain under an inch over our north and western areas, with lesser
amounts to the SE.

Precip ending will help limit snow accumulations, as low temperatures
plummet into the mid/upper teens before daybreak Thursday. With
clouds slowly decreasing and a lower 1040s mb surface high building
SE over the eastern Great Plains, it will very chilly day with highs
only in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A NW-N winds of 5-15 mph will
produce wind chill values in the teens to lower 20s. Even colder
Thur night with lows in the lower teens. High temperatures to close
out the work week should only rise into the mid 30s to around 40
under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Some light returns are shown by radar moving over northwestern
Alabama at present. However, a line of showers and severe storms
is forecast to move across the local area from west to east
between 10PM-4AM this evening and overnight. The main threats will
be heavy rain, damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes.
This system will bring reductions in visibility (especially in the
heavier rain) as well as lower ceilings. MVFR to IFR conditions
are forecast overnight, with improvements to MVFR Sunday
afternoon. Outside of storms, it will also be windy. Sustained
winds between 15-20 knots will shift from the south to west
through the overnight hours. Winds gusts generally between 25-35
knots are anticipated during this time as well. Lastly, LLWS
(southerly between 40-50 knots) will be a concern this evening and
overnight, especially along and ahead of the line of storms.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...26/17
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26