EF2 tornado, Nathan to Jones Chapel, Alabama, November 29, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
533 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The second round of severe weather is beginning to take shape over
Mississippi. The surface warm front has pushed to near the I-20
corridor and will push north of central Alabama this evening. It
appears the majority of the discrete supercells will remain in
Mississippi in the near term, although a few could impact our
far western counties. The main severe threat will be along a QLCS
that will form in northern Mississippi this evening ahead an
approaching cold front. The models have trended towards a slower
development of the main convective line, and not impacting our
northwest counties until late evening. The greatest threat for
severe storms will be across our northwest counties, where the low
level jet will be strongest and veering wind profiles maximized.
The convective line will shift slowly southeast during the
overnight hours and close to the I-59 corridor near sunrise
Wednesday. The line itself will likely maintain its strength due
to strong low level moisture influx. The tornado threat should
decrease after the line moves south of I-59 as the low level flow
veers, but isolated tornadoes still possible. The convective line
should be near the I-85 corridor by Noon Wednesday, and exiting
our southeast counties by 2 pm. Earlier model runs had the QLCS
developing over nw Alabama with little movement for several hours.
With the line farther northwest, reduced rainfall totals for areas
north of I-20.

Clearing and turning colder Wednesday night with dry conditions
Thursday through Friday. The weekend is still looking wet for
central Alabama, especially Sunday, as a northern stream short
wave trof picks up deeper moisture streaming out of the Southwest
States. The air mass will be fairly stable on Sunday, so only
showers expected. The models are diverge with the timing and
ejection of the upper low over the Southwest States early next
week, so low confidence for any strong/severe potential at this
time.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Adjustments made for the timing of TSRA. Warm front currently
located south of MGM/TOI will move northward this evening
providing scattered rain showers for Central AL. Because of this,
have left mention of VCSH for TAF sites through the evening. Cold
front is still located further west into Arkansas, and the line of
storms is holding back into Mississippi this afternoon. Have
adjusted the time of arrival until early morning hours tomorrow.
Some storms that are just across the state line into MS could
impact TCL before the main line gets into Central AL, so have
introduced TSRA around 2-3z for TCL. Line of storms moves from
west to east across Central AL in the early morning hours on
Wednesday, with TSRA along the line followed by SHRA towards the
end of the 24 hour TAF period.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Much of Central Alabama received beneficial rainfall Monday night and
another wave of heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Wednesday
morning. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible. Drier air
should move into the area on Thursday and Friday but moisture
returns Saturday with another round of showers expected through
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  63  35  56  31 / 100  90  10  10   0
Anniston    63  64  38  58  33 /  80 100  10  10   0
Birmingham  62  64  39  58  34 / 100  80   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  60  62  37  59  33 / 100  70   0  10   0
Calera      62  65  38  58  34 / 100 100  10  10   0
Auburn      66  68  42  60  37 /  30 100  10  10   0
Montgomery  66  68  40  62  35 /  50 100  10  10   0
Troy        65  72  41  62  36 /  30 100  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
501 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-010215-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
501 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE NEAR
OR AFTER 6 PM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS LAMAR, MARION, FAYETTE AND
WINSTON COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 3 AM.

AFTER 3 AM, THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND FEW BRIEF TORNADOES AS FAR
EAST AS A LINE FROM SELMA TO ANNISTON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOW-END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

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