West Virginia, 2026Damaging Wind in West Virginia, May 18, 2026
May 18, 2026 · NWS PBZ · 1 event in 1 county or zone
One late-evening severe thunderstorm tracked northeast across Tucker County, West Virginia and produced wind damage knocking down a large tree across a highway. Despite some MLCIN in place, MUCAPE values still reached up to 1000 J/kg and very high DCAPE values up to 1300 J/kg supported sufficient downdraft acceleration to result in tree damage.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $1,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
One late-evening severe thunderstorm tracked northeast across Tucker County, West Virginia and produced wind damage knocking down a large tree across a highway. Despite some MLCIN in place, MUCAPE values still reached up to 1000 J/kg and very high DCAPE values up to 1300 J/kg supported sufficient downdraft acceleration to result in tree damage.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 6:58 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Heat impacts for sensitive populations continue early this week, with temperatures up to the upper-80s to low-90s. 2) Conditional terrain/lake driven severe chances today, highest severe chances tomorrow evening for NW PA and east OH, and conditional severe threats Wednesday SE of Pittsburgh with departing front.
Area forecast discussion, May 18, 6:58 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
758 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
On the whole, the forecast remains unchanged, except for higher
confidence in an 8p to 2a arrival of storms in northwest PA and
eastern Ohio Tuesday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat impacts for sensitive populations continue early this
week, with temperatures up to the upper-80s to low-90s.
2) Conditional terrain/lake driven severe chances today,
highest severe chances tomorrow evening for NW PA and east OH,
and conditional severe threats Wednesday SE of Pittsburgh with
departing front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The 12Z surface analysis has the 587dm height line draped
across the area, which generally suggests that upper 80s are
most likely for highs today. A non-BC model like the LREF and
HREF, generally agree, with the 25th-75th percentile spreads
narrow and generally between 86F and 90F. With high confidence
in mostly clear skies for most today, its possible these
deterministic high tend toward the higher end of the non-BC
distribution. So this would generally mean temperatures near-90,
with some 90s possible with urban and river-valley terrain
influence. Some "cooler spots" into the low-to-mid 80s are
favored for high terrain and north of I-80. Highs today will be
within a few degrees of record highs for all climate sites.
The HREF only alludes to temperatures dropping into the mid-to-
upper 60s, which will provide little chance for temperature
recovery overnight. This will challenge a few "max-low
temperature" records. Mean heights may drop slightly Tuesday
with the beginning of a ridge breakdown. Additionally, more mid-
moisture will also allow for more cloud cover. All in all,
temperatures may be a degree or two cooler in areas that do not
see rain, but cumulative heat stress continues. So upper-80s,
are again favored for most.
The NWS heat risk shows mostly a moderate risk Monday into
Tuesday, whereby heat may generally impact the most sensitive
populations. Make sure to stay hydrated or monitor for signs of
heat illness if spending excessive time outdoors.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
All of the area will be under the northern periphery of the
ridge axis today, with corresponding subsidence enforcing mid-
level capping. While diurnal cumulus are developing, as we
continue to mix into a dry layer (evidenced on 12Z sounding
from 750mb to 600mb), we expect most vertical development to be
limited. There's a couple exceptions that will need to be
addressed. First will be the high terrain. With ridge-top
convergence in mostly NE flow aloft, we coudn't rule out a storm
firing in an environment of 1000-1200 DCAPE, which could
certainty carry a conditional downburst wind threat in the low
probability this happens. Consistently, the highest chance of
development has been eastern Tucker County, but with NW flow
aloft, the thought would be that the highest risk would be to
the east for the forecast area. The second area would be a
conditional threat of storm development on a lake breeze this
afternoon. This is lower confidence, but should it occur, the
same downburst threat is possible, with outflow potentially
carrying development into NW Pennsylvania. Both threats are
conditional on development (<30% chance), but should development
occur, damaging wind risks would increase substantially.
A ridge breakdown begins Tuesday, with afternoon storm
development in western Ohio likely. The most likely timing of
this appears late- day. There's a bit of a conditional risk
from 20Z to 00Z, but the current thought is that capping will
be too strong to let the environment utilize the ~1500 to 2500
MUCAPE for "bubble-up" convection in NW PA in the afternoon.
Later, some combination of outflow from the Ohio convection on a
pre-frontal trough and/or a lake breeze will make convection
more likely in the 00Z to 06Z window. Since this timing is
mostly after sunset, storms are expected to have a decaying
trend as they enter the area, but they certainty could be strong
enough to produce wind gusts up to 60mph, most likely for the
I-80 corridor with DCAPE of 900 to 1000, with threats also
possible into eastern Ohio. Convective intensity is expected to
wain overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some
isolated showers/storms remain possible.
Wednesday will bring more of a conditional severe threat
southeast of Pittsburgh, with the main uncertainty being 1)
frontal timing and 2) cloud cover. In a scenario with a slower
front and limited cloud cover, recovery of instability and a
limited severe threat is possible for northern WV and far SW PA.
But should the front be faster or clouds complicate instability
generation, severe threats are lower. Severe chances taper over
the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid and upper level cloud cover will move into the region this
evening from the convection that dissipates in Ohio. Expect
mainly light and variable winds through the overnight. Some
LLWS will also be possible at the terminals.
By 14Z tomorrow, winds will be on the increase with gusts
through the day up to 20 knots and evening some locations seeing
some 30 knots gusts. Mid and upper level cloud cover will be
increasing through the day. VFR conditions are anticipated but
some terminals such as ZZV may see some restricted flight
conditions by the end of the TAF period as the next round of
convection will impact the region.
Outlook...
An upper shortwave and surface front will push a
shower/thunderstorm axis east Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon. Initial restrictions will be tied to rainfall
intensities with height falls not occurring until after frontal
passage.
High pressure and VFR returns by Thursday areawide before an
active pattern feature multiple rain chances develops Friday
into the weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...Milcarek
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 12:41 PM EST, 9 hours 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
141 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
WVZ512>514-191745-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
141 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
A brief window may exist for isolated strong thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
PAZ007>009-013-015-191745-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Clarion-
141 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Although most areas are currently expected to remain dry, there is a
low risk of thunderstorm development this afternoon into the
evening. If storms can form, there is a low risk of isolated
damaging wind gusts.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in thunderstorms during
Tuesday evening and early overnight ahead of a cold front.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014-016-020>022-029-073-077-
078-WVZ001>004-191745-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Butler-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Westmoreland-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
141 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in thunderstorms during
Tuesday evening and early overnight ahead of a cold front.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PAZ031-074>076-WVZ012-021-509>511-191745-
Greene-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
141 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Milcarek
Thunderstorm Wind, Tucker
- When
- May 18, 10:08 PM EST
- Where
- Tucker County, 1.19 mi NNW of Cortland
- Measured
- 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $1,000
- Reported by
- Public
- Coordinates
- 39.084, -79.442
Tree down near the intersection of Appalachian Highway and Northridge Road.
- Thunderstorm Wind
- Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Tornado and Hail in Missouri, May 18, 2026$50,000 · EF1 · 47 events
- Flooding and Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 18, 2026$501,000 · 55 kt wind · 19 events
- Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in American Samoa, May 18, 2026$365,000 · 15 events
- Flooding in Alaska, May 18 to 28, 2026$515,000 · 7 events
- Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Kansas, May 18, 2026EF1 · 46 events
- Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 18, 2026$126,000 · 62 kt wind · 17 events
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Nebraska, May 18, 2026$8,000 · EF1 · 44 events
- Damaging Winds in Michigan, May 18, 2026$120,000 · 61 kt wind · 12 events
- Damaging Winds in Michigan, May 18, 202678 kt wind · 53 events
- Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Illinois, May 18, 2026$100,000 · 50 kt wind · 2 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 18, 20262 in hail · 45 events
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Missouri, May 18 to 20, 2026$30,000 · 52 kt wind · 14 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1338521.