Flash Flood in Virginia, May 27, 2026

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
821 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) SVR Tstm Watch in effect until 9 PM for portions of VA zones.
Marginal SVR risk elsewhere. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible area-wide.

2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 515 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...SVR Tstm Watch in effect until 9 PM for portions of
VA zones. Marginal SVR risk elsewhere. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide.

Have cancelled northern portions of the SVR Tstm Watch,
basically much of the region N of the outflow boundary dropping
south into southern VA. For now, with some storms w/ gusty winds
in the area, have kept much of metro RIC in the watch, but still
will make another adjustment prior to the 9 PM end time.

Previous AFD...
Storms have developed across northern VA in
advance of a stationary front that will begin to drop S as a
cold front late today. The main threat will be from damaging
wind gusts. Thus far, the threat for hail is limited as mid
level lapse rates are quite weak, however, models do show some
potential for these rates to become a bit steeper by late aftn.
The Watch extends through 9PM and goes all the way to the VA-NC
border. Through 5 PM, the bulk of any SVR activity will be over
northern portions of the Watch area, and while southern portions
will probably not have much SVR potential, satellite imagery
shows some breaks in the clouds moving in from the W that will
likely enhance low level lapse rates by late aftn/early evening.
Sfc- based and ML CAPE values are already decent, but thus far
DCAPE values are quite limited- again this may change as we get
to later in the aftn/early evening.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates that the compressed H7-H5
heights is allowing for moderately strong W winds aloft and
0-6km bulk shear to 30- 40kt. Additionally, heavy rain is
expected with any storms, and have been seeing instantaneous
rates to 5-7"/hr, though the storms are moving so FFWs will be
limited to training storms and/or more urban areas in general.
Into tonight, some of the CAMs are showing a 2nd batch of
additional storms quite late- well after midnight, and this is
in association with the trailing upper trough and shortwave
energy. Have maintained high chc PoPs for scattered
showers/storms to account for this, but this scenario is rather
uncertain and the SVR threat would be much more limited as low
level lapse rates would be weak given the airmass being worked
over considerably. Lows Thu AM will range through the 60s for
most.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and
likely continues this weekend into early next week.

The front gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as
a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS.
For Thursday, PoPs will be confined mainly to NE NC, with a
slight chc into the piedmont for a few hrs in the aftn (where
dew pts stay a little higher in the 60s). Overall though, much
drier air will overspread the area with dew pts dropping into
the 50s across the I-64 corridor and pts northward. Due to a
well mixed BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid
80s Thursday. Dry and pleasant Thu night with lows mainly in the
50s (60s immediate coast). Friday will be mild and dry as high
pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s
for coastal areas, after a pleasant morning with lows in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes
another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the
latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which
suppresses the moisture S. 27/12z EPS/GEFS each depict PW
values remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into
early next week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less Saturday
(mostly likely dry for most locations), with PoPs less than 15%
Sunday. NBM PoPs are ~20% Monday/Tuesday, which is near climo.
Temperatures will be near to a little below normal overall from
Saturday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the
Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of
May into the beginning of June.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Showers/storms are ongoing to start the TAF period with
localized IFR-LIFR VSBYs in the heaviest downpours. Overall, the
wind threat has diminished w/ much of the region in a rain
cooled airmass, but still the potential for wind gusts up to
25-30 kt in any storm. Have included TEMPO groups at all
terminals, mainly in 2-3 hr windows through 03-05Z when the
highest probs for tstms are present. The actual cold front is
slower, not pushing through until 06-10Z. Most of the CAMs show
less moisture by that time, but a few additional showers with
embedded tstms can't be ruled out. Have also included MVFR CIGs
at all terminals for a few hrs between 06-12Z (IFR possible but
with low confidence so did not include in the TAFs). Flight
restrictions should end for most places prior to 12Z, but could
linger at ECG a bit longer. Becoming partly to mostly sunny with
increasing N winds (NNE at ORF/ECG), with gusts to ~20 kt
(20-25 kt at SBY).

Outlook: VFR/dry Thu night through Friday. Another cold front
arrives by Saturday, but most guidance depicts this as a dry
frontal passage with increased northerly winds and VFR
conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms will bring strong wind gusts and locally higher
waves late this afternoon and evening.

- Winds become northerly behind a front Thursday, followed by light
flow Friday. Elevated onshore flow and higher seas possible this
weekend as another front moves through the local waters.

The front the brought reduced VIS and some light rain to the
northern waters earlier this morning has lifted just north of our
area. SW winds prevail this afternoon, with the strongest winds of
10-15 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts are being measured in the lower
Bay and the Rivers due to the best mixing occuring on land this
afternoon. Winds across the coastal waters are light at ~5 kts in
the northern waters, with with the southern waters measuring
westerly winds of 10-15 kts. Seas across the coastal waters range
between 2-3 ft, and waves in the Bay are measuring 1-2 ft.

While mainly benign conditions are expected, the threat for strong-
severe thunderstorms now through this evening today will likely
bring significantly higher wind gusts (40+ kt) and locally higher
waves. The associated front will drop southward across the area
early Thursday, with the wind becoming northerly. While a brief
surge in northerly winds is possible along and just behind the front
late Thursday morning, conditions should mostly stay sub-SCA. With
warmer waters across the Bay, would not be shocked to see a few
hours where winds gust to 20 kt around or just after sunrise. High
pressure will build in from NW Friday with lighter winds forecast
through the first part of Friday night. A stronger system could
bring a period of N/NE winds this weekend, with gradually building
seas and potential SCAs. There is good model agreement that a
surface low will develop over Quebec and drop down across the
Northeast and move offshore sometime on Friday night into Saturday.
There is some disagreement in timing and magnitude of the winds, so
the current wind and wave forecasts are subject to change.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through at least Friday night.
Similarly, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will only be in the 1-2 ft
range. Building seas are possible later Saturday into Sunday; this
is again ultimately dependent on the magnitude of onshore flow
and strength of the lows offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...SW/NB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
513 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-282115-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
513 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal severe risk through this evening, with the main
threat being from damaging wind gusts. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-062-064-075>078-083>086-099-100-509>512-517>522-
282115-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-
Lancaster-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Accomack-Northampton-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
513 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ060-061-065>069-079>082-087>090-092-097-098-513>516-523>525-
528>531-282115-
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-
Portsmouth-
513 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ061-068-069-272330-
Powhatan VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-
643 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CUMBERLAND...
NORTHWESTERN AMELIA AND SOUTHWESTERN POWHATAN COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dillwyn, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
         lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
         possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Locations impacted include...
Cumberland, Guinea Mills, Tobaccoville, Trenholm, Ballsville,
Sunnyside, Morven, Trents Mill, Hatchers, Ashby, Oak Forest, McRae,
Clinton, Paineville, Whiteville, Grays Siding, Bear Creek Lake State
Park, Belona, and Truxillo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 7827 3760 7799 3737 7804 3744 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 278DEG 27KT 3755 7839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ089-523>525-528-272330-
Hampton/Poquoson VA-Surry VA-Isle of Wight VA-Newport News VA-
York VA-
644 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ISLE OF WIGHT...
SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN SURRY COUNTIES...THE CITY OF
HAMPTON AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithfield, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Smithfield and Rescue around 650 PM EDT.
  Newport News around 655 PM EDT.
  Hampton and Christopher Newport University around 700 PM EDT.
  Northampton around 705 PM EDT.
  Hampton University around 710 PM EDT.
  Fort Monroe around 715 PM EDT.
  Buckroe Beach around 720 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Rushmere, Fox Hill,
Pons, Carrollton, Phoebus, Langley View, Benns Church, Bethel Church,
Hilton Village, and Lawson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 7629 3692 7643 3688 7649 3689 7649
      3692 7648 3692 7649 3691 7653 3692 7653
      3690 7656 3693 7670 3701 7682 3711 7673
      3711 7625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 275DEG 26KT 3702 7665

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VAZ062-069-512>516-272330-
Goochland VA-Eastern Hanover VA-Western Chesterfield VA-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond) VA-Powhatan VA-
Eastern Henrico VA-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
646 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...
SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...HENRICO...SOUTHEASTERN HANOVER AND EAST
CENTRAL POWHATAN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manakin, or 7 miles west of Tuckahoe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
         lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
         possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Downtown Richmond, Bon Air, Virginia Union University,
Virginia Commonwealth University, Tuckahoe, University Of Richmond,
Mechanicsville, Highland Springs, Chester, Bensley, Manakin,
Bellwood, East Highland Park, Sabot, Laurel, Lakeside, Glen Allen,
Richmond Heights, and Montrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3753 7783 3768 7774 3762 7722 3734 7737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 286DEG 32KT 3759 7773

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
749 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Short Pump        37.64N 77.57W
05/27/2026                   Henrico            VA   911 Call Center

            Multiple reports of trees down in the west
            end area of Henrico County. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

AC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
805 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Lakeside          37.59N 77.46W
05/27/2026                   City of Richmond   VA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Crestwood Dr in Richmond.

&&

AC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
847 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Lynnhaven         36.82N 76.07W
05/27/2026                   City of Virginia BeVA   NWS Employee

            Up to a foot or so of water over the roadway
            at Lynnhaven Pkwy in the Redwing area of
            Virginia Beach.

&&

05