A cold front moving through the central Appalachian mountains during the peak heating of the afternoon triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms to form. The presence of modest instability allowed a couple of these storms to grow intense enough to produce damaging wind gusts, which resulted in localized damage to trees.
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The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A cold front moving through the central Appalachian mountains during the peak heating of the afternoon triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms to form. The presence of modest instability allowed a couple of these storms to grow intense enough to produce damaging wind gusts, which resulted in localized damage to trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 13, 11:09 AM EST, 6 hours 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1209 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated. Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread southeast with a cold frontal passage through tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for areas west of the Blue Ridge, with damaging winds as the main threat. Key Message 2: Starting cool but trending much warmer starting this weekend. Record heat possible early next week. Only limited chances for rain through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread southeast with a cold frontal passage through tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for areas west of the Blue Ridge, with damaging winds as the main threat. An area of showers was moving through WV and into SW VA this afternoon along a southward-moving cold front. The parent upper level system dominates the eastern CONUS through Friday, and it crosses our longitude early Thursday morning. So far convection has been weak with little lightning noted. This is consistent with the marginal nature of the convective threat as noted by SPC. The main hindrances look to be a generous cap around 770mb on this morning's RNK soundings, westerly winds throughout the column, and relatively low moisture and thus instability. We will likely see some increasing MUCAPE and lightning this afternoon and evening, as the main area of surface convergence arrives. CAMs show some slightly more robust cells developing near the WV/VA border this afternoon, with a second wave of convection behind it. The main concern will be damaging winds, but convection weakens and dissipates quickly as it moves towards the Blue Ridge tonight. Measurable rainfall (>0.01") will likely occur over most of the area through tomorrow, however higher amounts quickly drop off from north to south, with areas north of Highway 460 seeing a much better chance for decent amounts (55-75% chance of a 0.25" or more). Areas east of the Blue Ridge will see much lower amounts. Still, this will not bring much relief to the drought. Key Message 2: Starting cool but trending much warmer starting this weekend. Record heat possible early next week. Only limited chances for rain through mid week. Thursday will be a cooler day with upslope clouds lingering in the mountains most of the day. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for the mountains, with 60s to low 70 for the Piedmont. High pressure will keep us dry at least through Friday, and to some extent even over the weekend and beyond. That said, weak short wave energy may bring scattered showers to the mountains each afternoon. By mid week, a stronger area of vorticity aloft helps to deepen troughing in the Mid Atlantic region, and this looks like our best shot for precipitation. If high pressure can weaken enough, increasing moisture and surface heating should lead to more robust convection during this time, although most likely still seeing garden variety storms (not severe). Beyond day 5, the spread at 500mb really increases, so confidence is low in any details. NAEFS is showing temperature anomalies between 2-3 standard deviations as early as Sunday and lasting into Wednesday over our area, mainly in the lower levels. A little more concerning is the high values on both the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and the Shift of Tails for temperatures, meaning an extreme event is likely next week and it could be significant, relative to climatology. This early on in the warm season, people are not used to hot weather yet, and may not take heat threats very seriously. However, this is when people get into trouble, so check on neighbors, stay in the AC, and limit time outside. Actual record breaking heat looks likely at various sites Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday. Thankfully dew points and overnight will be in the 50s and 60s, so it will not be as unpleasant as it could be. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the forecast period; however, with the passage of a cold front through this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at all terminals. These showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they move within the vicinity of any terminal. Showers and storms are least likely at DAN. Winds will predominantly be out of the southwest at around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots ahead of the front. Once the front passes around the 00-03 UTC timeframe, winds become northwesterly, and look to maintain winds in the 5-10 knot range, with gusts remaining up to 20 knots overnight. There will be a period Thursday morning when gusts may increase to between 20-30 kts, with the higher gusts on the ridge lines and in the mountains. Upslope cloud development is also expected at BLF and LWB starting early Thursday morning in the 09-12 UTC timeframe. These restrictions at these two terminals look to remain through the late morning hours on Thursday before lifting throughout the afternoon hours. BCB may also get caught in this MVFR deck, but it looks to stay just north of ROA and LYH at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure settles over the region by Friday returning VFR conditions to all locations. Isolated afternoon mountain showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this weekend as flow becomes more westerly and then southerly/southwesterly once again. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1244 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026 VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-141645- Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer- Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 1244 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few storms this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe. Damaging winds are the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-141645- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 1244 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026
WVZ043-507-508-132300-
Western Greenbrier WV-Summers WV-Eastern Greenbrier WV-
626 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GREENBRIER AND
NORTHEASTERN SUMMERS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...
At 625 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Asbury, or near Lewisburg, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lewisburg...
White Sulphur Springs...
Ronceverte...
Alderson...
Asbury...
Greenbrier River Trail...
and Lewisburg Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3794 8011 3788 8015 3785 8018 3784 8018
3780 8023 3778 8022 3772 8030 3770 8038
3771 8038 3770 8039 3772 8040 3770 8045
3769 8046 3769 8051 3775 8075 3792 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 274DEG 35KT 3783 8052
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BMGThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:01 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down one tree along the 5300 block of Dunlap Creek Road, partially blocking the roadway.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large tree limbs near the intersection of Ingalls Street and Chestnut Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1331957, 1331959.