What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 23, 5:43 AM EST, 5 hours 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) There is increasing confidence in numerous showers/storms this afternoon and early evening, especially east of I-95. There is the potential for scattered strong to severe storms and localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas. The main severe threat is damaging wind gusts, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A Flood Watch has been issued for the urban areas of SE VA. 2) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 23, 5:43 AM EST, 5 hours 32 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. Confidence in heavy rainfall and
strong to severe storms continues to increase today as a
shortwave/MCV moves across the area. A Slight Risk for Severe
Storms has been introduced roughly along and east of I-95. A
Flood Watch has been issued for the urban areas of SE VA from
1-10 PM today.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is increasing confidence in numerous
showers/storms this afternoon and early evening, especially east of
I-95. There is the potential for scattered strong to severe storms
and localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas. The main
severe threat is damaging wind gusts, though an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. A Flood Watch has been issued for the urban
areas of SE VA.
2) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is increasing confidence in numerous
showers/storms this afternoon and early evening, especially east of
I-95. There is the potential for scattered strong to severe storms
and localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas. The main
severe threat is damaging wind gusts, though an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. A Flood Watch has been issued for the urban
areas of SE VA.
Yesterday's convection has moved offshore and weakened, leaving
behind a few showers across SE VA/NE NC. However, the actual cold
front is still to the north of the FA. In addition, an upper
shortwave/MCV is clearly evident on GOES satellite imagery over
eastern TN. While the models have had varying solutions regarding
the eventual evolution of this feature over the past day, there is
now very good agreement that it will impact our area (especially
along/east of I-95). As the aforementioned cold front gradually
drops south through the area later today, a surface low will form
and deepen along the front as that upper level feature now in TN
tracks over the area. Even though convection impacted the area
yesterday, temps should rise to near 90F in SE VA/NE NC with dew pts
in the lower 70s. This will allow for plenty of sfc-based
instability (~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to develop. Early/mid aftn temps
may only be in the 70s NW of RIC with the front bisecting the area.
The low is progged to enter SE VA during the afternoon, coinciding
with peak heating. Showers are expected in the Piedmont by late
morning as the shortwave/MCV approaches. Then, tstms will quickly
develop along and ahead of it during the aftn and become fairly
widespread as they get closer to the coast. The most likely timing
for storms is 1-4 PM along the I-95 Corridor, and 2-6 PM closer to
the coast. There is a threat for damaging wind gusts given
sufficient sfc heating and enhanced mid/upper flow which will allow
for some degree of storm organization, especially near the coast. In
addition, there is a low but nonzero tornado threat near the center
of the low (especially near the coast) where the LLVL flow could be
locally backed. SPC has introduced Slight Risk for severe storms
(Level 2 out of 5) near and east of I-95.
In addition to the severe threat, there is a threat for locally heavy
rainfall, with the greatest concern near the coast along and a
little bit to the north of the low track where some training of
storms appears likely. With PWATs increasing to ~2.0", rainfall
rates will be efficient. Both the REFS and HREF ensemble PMMs show
an area of 2-4" near the coast, with the REFS being a bit farther
south than the HREF. Also, the HREF has up to 30-50% 40km
neighborhood probs of 3"/3 hours for most coastal zones N of the VA-
NC border. So even though antecedent conditions have been dry, have
issued a targeted Flood Watch for SE VA (mainly for the urban
areas). These areas saw 1-2" of rain yesterday and localized totals
of 3 to 5 inches are definitely possible in a few spots. This
roughly aligns with WPCs Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (Level 2
out of 4). All convection should end by mid to late evening as the
low moves offshore and drier air moves in behind the front.
Comfortable tonight with lows in the upper 50s-60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.
A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping
Wednesday dry. Temperatures won't be much cooler though, with highs
near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring
back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the
week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up. Upper heights
gradually rise on Thu/Fri, with dry wx continuing on Thu and
isolated aftn/evening storms possible Fri (mainly N/NW). There is a
better chc of tstms Saturday aftn/evening as a more well defined
shortwave crosses the area. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and
low 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70F.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday...
IFR stratus has pushed to the north of the terminals, with
mostly VFR at this hour. Mainly VFR with some brief MVFR or IFR
stratus possible at SBY this morning. Then, A low pressure
system is progged to cross the area this afternoon-early
evening, which will result in numerous showers/tstms from
midday-early evening. Highest confidence in thunder is at
ORF/PHF/ECG, where VCTS has been included. Some of the storms
could produce gusty winds of 30-40+ kt, especially in SE VA/NE
NC. As such, additional flight restrictions are likely later
today, initially in SHRA/TSRA, and then with lingering low
clouds into the evening (especially ORF/ECG). Conditions improve
back to VFR tonight as drier air moves in from the N-NW.
Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late day showers/storms
possible Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front will move across the local waters this afternoon. Decent
cold air advection forecast for behind the front has prompted
the issuance of SCAs for the Bay and lower James this evening
through early Wednesday morning.
- Benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of the rest of
the week.
A few light to moderate showers remain across the lower Bay and
coastal waters this morning in the wake of the strong convection
that moved through last night. Winds outside of storms have relaxed,
with SSW winds of generally 10-15 kts being observed across the
local waters. A low pressure system is currently moving across the
Appalachians in northern West Virginia/southwestern PA. The
associated cold front is slowly approaching the local waters from
the west, and this feature will be the focus of today's weather, for
both winds and thunderstorms.
Winds will remain around 10-15kt through the morning ahead of the
front. Another surface low is forecast to develop along the front as
it moves through the area, which introduces some uncertainty in
winds ahead of the front. Have kept sub-SCA winds across all waters
through the day today, but some guidance is suggesting that the
gradient in the vicinity of the aforementioned low may tighten and
bring a period of stronger winds. Some of this guidance may be
showing the convectively driven winds in the strong to severe storms
that are expected to develop with this low, which is why they have
not been included. In-house wind probs also do not support rapidly
increasing winds ahead of the front. In regards to the storms
tomorrow, some of these storms may produce winds in excess of 50kt+
and isolated waterspouts, so SMWs will handle this. The timeframe
for any storms moving across the local waters will be between 2 pm
to just after sunset (+/- an hour or two).
In the wake of the front, a good surge of CAA is expected to push
across the waters. Local wind probs for sustained winds of 18 kts
across the Bay have increased to 70-90%, so SCAs have been issued to
capture this brief NW wind surge between 20z-08z for the Bay, and
00z-05z for the lower James. A few gusts to ~25 kt are possible
across the coastal waters, but confidence is not high enough to
include an SCA for these marine zones at this time, especially since
we are not expecting rapidly building seas due to the not quite as
favorable wind direction (NW). After this brief wind surge, winds
will quickly decrease across all waters as high pressure builds back
over the region, with generally benign marine conditions expected
for the remainder of the week.
While winds are forecast to increase late tomorrow, they will be
parallel to the coast then becoming offshore, so the Rip Current
Risk will drop to low. Low rip risk will likely remain through late
week with the more benign conditions currently forecast.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for VAZ089-090-097-098-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ639.
&&
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...NBHazardous weather outlook, Jun 23, 10:46 AM EST, 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1146 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
VAZ062-064>069-511-241600-
Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Western Hanover-
1146 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, north
central Virginia and south central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Scattered to widespread strong to severe storms are possible today,
mainly in the afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as
the
main threat. In addition, heavy rain may lead to localized flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
VAZ048-060-061-509-510-241600-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
1146 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Scattered to widespread strong to severe storms are possible today,
mainly in the afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as
the
main threat. In addition, heavy rain may lead to localized flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
MDZ021-025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ079-080-087-513-241600-
Dorchester-Maryland Beaches-Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-
Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Greensville-Western Chesterfield-
1146 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Scattered to widespread strong to severe storms are possible today,
mainly in the afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as
the
main threat. In addition, heavy rain may lead to localized flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
MDZ022>024-VAZ075>078-081>086-088>090-092-097>100-512-514>525-
528>531-241600-
Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-
Eastern Hanover-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
1146 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Flood Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 23, 7:37 AM EST, 3 hours 38 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
837 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 N Meredithville 36.83N 77.96W
06/22/2026 Brunswick VA Dept of Highways
Tree downed knocked down power-lines on Rt.
644 in the County of Brunswick, in the
vicinity of the ramp from and to I-85N,.
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 23, 7:40 AM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
840 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0703 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SE Mangohick 37.80N 77.26W
06/22/2026 King William VA Dept of Highways
Tree down on Rt. 604 in the County of King
William, in the vicinity of King William Rd;
VA-30E/W.
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 23, 7:41 AM EST, 3 hours 34 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
841 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0720 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 E Aylett 37.77N 77.10W
06/22/2026 King William VA Dept of Highways
Tree down on Rt. 600 North in the County of
King William, in the vicinity of Mill Rd;
Popular Landing Rd; Rt. 647E/W (King William
County).
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 23, 7:46 AM EST, 3 hours 29 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
846 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 ENE King William 37.70N 76.98W
06/22/2026 King William VA Dept of Highways
Tree down on Rt. 637 in the County of King
William, in the vicinity of White Oak
Landing Ln; Rt. 642E/W (King William
County).
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 23, 9:35 AM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1035 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ESE Waverly 37.01N 77.05W
06/22/2026 Sussex VA Public
Multiple large tree limbs down. Located
about two miles west of Wakefield, VA. Time
estimated from radar.
&&
ACSpecial weather statement, Jun 23, 11:11 AM EST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1211 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
VAZ068-080>082-513>516-231700-
Charles City VA-Western Chesterfield VA-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond) VA-Prince George VA-
Dinwiddie VA-Amelia VA-Eastern Henrico VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
1211 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...
NORTHWESTERN CHARLES CITY...NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGE...SOUTHEASTERN
HENRICO...NORTHEASTERN DINWIDDIE AND SOUTHEASTERN AMELIA COUNTIES...
THE CITY OF RICHMOND...THE CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF
HOPEWELL AND THE CITY OF PETERSBURG THROUGH 100 PM EDT...
At 1211 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sutherland, or 10 miles north of Dinwiddie, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Sutherland around 1215 PM EDT.
Matoaca around 1220 PM EDT.
Colonial Heights, Chester, and Ettrick around 1225 PM EDT.
Bellwood around 1235 PM EDT.
Hopewell around 1240 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Wayside, Richmond
Heights, Birchett Estate, Addison, Ammon, Jordan Point Country Club,
Montrose, Petersburg National Battlefield, Sandston, and Glendale.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central, south central and east central Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3758 7734 3756 7729 3729 7707 3709 7768
3722 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 237DEG 26KT 3722 7762
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HETNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1350538, 1350552, 1355939, 1355944, 1350537, 1350539, 1350540, 1350541, 1350542, 1355947, 1350543, 1350544, 1350545, 1350546, 1350560, 1355951, 1350547, 1350548, 1355953, 1350549, 1350550, 1350551.