What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 23, 1:35 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Numerous showers/storms are forecast this afternoon and early evening. Strong to severe storms have the ability to produce damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado. Localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas is also a threat. A Flood Watch and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch are in effect through late evening for a large majority of the area. 2) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 23, 1:35 PM EST, 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
235 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
issued for the majority of the area through 8 PM today.
The Flood Watch has been expanded to include central and coastal
VA until 10 PM today.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous showers/storms are forecast this
afternoon and early evening. Strong to severe storms have the
ability to produce damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado.
Localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas is also a
threat. A Flood Watch and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch are in effect
through late evening for a large majority of the area.
2) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Numerous showers/storms are forecast this
afternoon and early evening. Strong to severe storms have the
ability to produce damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado.
Localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas is also a
threat. A Flood Watch and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch are in effect
through late evening for a large majority of the area.
A slow moving cold front will cross the area late this evening with
a surface low forming and deepening along the front with an
associated upper shortwave/MCV. Before the clouds covered the area,
ample amounts of sun allowed temperatures and moisture levels to
rebound in the area, particularly SE VA/NE NC, this morning. This
has allowed for more than enough MLCAPE across the area with
analyzed values over 1500 J/kg across the eastern half of the area.
Additionally, there is more shear with the front/MCV than previous
days with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear across the area. Strong
to severe storms have already developed across the area, with likely
more to come. Convection will continue through the afternoon and
evening, moving offshore by ~12 AM. There is a threat for damaging
wind gusts given sufficient sfc heating and enhanced mid/upper flow
which will allow for some degree of storm organization, especially
near the coast. In addition, there is a low but nonzero tornado
threat near the center of the low (especially near the coast) where
the LLVL flow could be locally backed. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for a large portion of the area, excluding the NW
piedmont counties, through 8 PM.
In addition to the severe threat, there is a threat for locally
heavy rainfall, with the greatest concern east of I-95 and a little
bit to the north of the low track where some training of storms
appears likely. With PWATs above ~2.0", rainfall rates will be
efficient. The latest CAMs agree on a localized area receiving up to
3-5" of rain with a more general 1-2" across the area. The Flood
Watch was expanded this morning to include central and coastal VA,
as rainfall amounts could exceed 1-2" of rain with localized 3-4" in
the areas. Comfortable tonight with lows in the upper 50s-60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.
A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping
Wednesday dry. Temperatures won't be much cooler though, with highs
near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring
back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the
week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up. Upper heights
gradually rise on Thu/Fri, with dry wx continuing on Thu and
isolated aftn/evening storms possible Fri (mainly N/NW). There is a
better chc of tstms Saturday aftn/evening as a more well defined
shortwave crosses the area. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and
low 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70F.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...
Degraded flight conditions from widespread rain and
storms have pushed into the area this afternoon from the west,
currently affect RIC with MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Storms in the
area have the potential of becoming severe and produce gusty winds
of 30-40kt+. The showers/storms will continue to move eastward
throughout the afternoon and evening, likely reaching the SE VA
terminals (ORF/PHF) around 20-22z. Low IFR/MVFR clouds will linger
after the convection into late evening. Conditions will then improve
to VFR after midnight as drier air moves in from the NW.
Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late day showers/storms
possible Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front will move across the local waters this afternoon. Decent
cold air advection forecast for behind the front has prompted
the issuance of SCAs for the Bay and lower James this evening
through early Wednesday morning.
- Benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of the rest of
the week.
A cold front with low pressure developing along it was progressing
through Central VA as of early afternoon sfc analysis. Showers and
thunderstorms have already started moving in over the upper tidal
rivers and will continue east through the rest of the afternoon.
Some storms may be strong or severe with wind gusts in excess of
60mph and waterspouts possible. There is also a low-end potential
for hail.
In the wake of the front, a surge of CAA is expected to push across
the waters. Local wind probs for sustained winds of 18 kts across
the Bay have increased to 80-90%, so SCAs have been issued to
capture this brief NW wind surge between 20z-08z for the Bay, and
00z-05z for the lower James. A few gusts to ~25 kt are possible
across the coastal waters, but not issue a SCA for the coastal
waters at this time, especially since we are not expecting rapidly
building seas due to the less than favorable wind direction (NW).
After this brief wind surge, winds will quickly decrease across all
waters as high pressure builds back over the region. Light winds
prevail Wednesday and most of Thursday, then breezy south winds come
back Thursday evening into Friday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ022>024.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078-
081>086-088>090-092-097>100-512-514>525-528>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ639.
&&
DISCUSSION...ERI/KMC
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...AC/NBHazardous weather outlook, Jun 23, 2:03 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-509>511-513-241915-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, north
central Virginia and south central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
VAZ075>078-081>083-512-514>522-241915-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
New Kent-Eastern Hanover-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia and south central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
MDZ021-025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ087-241915-
Dorchester-Maryland Beaches-Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-
Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
Greensville-
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
MDZ022>024-VAZ084>086-088>090-092-097>100-523>525-528>531-241915-
Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Northampton-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 23, 1:52 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
252 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Harris Grove 37.19N 76.48W
06/23/2026 York VA 911 Call Center
Wires down causing a fire in York. Time
estimated from radar.
&&
AKLocal storm report, Jun 23, 1:57 PM EST, 33 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0256 PM Marine Tstm Wind 2 W Plantation 37.24N 76.02W
06/23/2026 M43 MPH ANZ632 VA Mesonet
Weatherflow station at Plantation Flats
recorded a wind gust to 37 kt.
&&
RRLocal storm report, Jun 23, 1:59 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Pons 37.00N 76.80W
06/23/2026 Isle of Wight VA 911 Call Center
Tree down on Mill Swamp Road in Isle of
Wight. Time estimated from radar.
&&
AKLocal storm report, Jun 23, 2:07 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0150 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N Carrollton 36.96N 76.56W
06/23/2026 Isle of Wight VA 911 Call Center
Power lines down on Nike Park Road in Isle
of Wight. Time estimated from radar.
&&
AKSpecial weather statement, Jun 23, 2:07 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
VAZ097-524-528>531-232000-
Norfolk VA-Portsmouth VA-Isle of Wight VA-Suffolk VA-Newport News VA-
Chesapeake VA-
307 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ISLE OF WIGHT ...THE
SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF NORFOLK...THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE...
THE CITY OF PORTSMOUTH...THE EASTERN CITY OF SUFFOLK AND THE SOUTHERN
CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Zuni to near Suffolk to near Whaleyville.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Downtown Suffolk, Suffolk, and Kings Fork around 315 PM EDT.
Chesapeake around 320 PM EDT.
Smithfield and Driver around 325 PM EDT.
Bowers Hill and Crittenden around 330 PM EDT.
Deep Creek, Churchland, Portsmouth, and Western Branch around 335
PM EDT.
Newport News and Cradock around 340 PM EDT.
Old Dominion University, Downtown Portsmouth, and Norfolk around
345 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include South Norfolk,
Carrollton, Portlock, Longview, Benns Church, Lummis, Suffolk
Airport, Huntersville, Wills Corner, and Hilton Village.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3668 7674 3680 7684 3704 7646 3693 7633
3676 7625 3659 7668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 233DEG 27KT 3685 7681 3673 7668 3661 7662
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HETLocal storm report, Jun 23, 2:19 PM EST, 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NNW Hornsbyville 37.21N 76.48W
06/23/2026 York VA 911 Call Center
Tree down on Wormley Creek Drive in York.
Time estimated from radar.
&&
AK