What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 25, 6:28 PM EST, 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Showers and storms increase in coverage late this afternoon and especially this evening, pushing eastward to the coast overnight into early Sunday morning. Low pressure offshore then allows for cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with lingering rain along the coast. Drying out and becoming milder Monday. 2) There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall next week with temperatures near to below normal.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 25, 6:28 PM EST, 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
728 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed thunder mention for far NE portions of the Forecast
Area for tonight.
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms increase in coverage late this afternoon
and especially this evening, pushing eastward to the coast
overnight into early Sunday morning. Low pressure offshore then
allows for cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with lingering
rain along the coast. Drying out and becoming milder Monday.
2) There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall
next week with temperatures near to below normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms increase in coverage late
this afternoon and especially this evening, pushing eastward to
the coast overnight into early Sunday morning. Low pressure
offshore then allows for cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with
lingering rain along the coast. Drying out and becoming milder
Monday.
A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary from the central
Appalachians southward into southern VA this aftn, with cool
high pressure situated along the southern New England coast. A
cool ENE flow prevails north of the boundary, with a much warmer
southerly flow to the south. Temperatures show a large gradient,
ranging from the 50s on the MD eastern shore, to the 80s in
most of far southern VA and NE NC. Showers with embedded tstms
are ongoing across the mountains, and will begin to push into
the local area over the next 1-2 hrs. We are not outlooked by
SPC for any severe tstms, but with steep low level lapse rates
(~9C/km) to the south of the boundary, along with DCAPE values
of 500-100 J/Kg there could be an isolated stronger storm with
wind gusts to ~40-50 mph. Based on model soundings and the current
obs, the best storm potential is south of the I-64 corridor, probably
in the vicinity of the US 460 corridor. One more thing to watch
for will be locally enhanced low-level shear with the front in
place and the approaching low feature across southern VA. This
is highly conditional, and the CAMs have generally backed off
with respect to any supercells riding along the the boundary
into this evening. Have removed the mention of any tstms on the
eastern shore given the very cool/stable conditions there.
Showers move eastward to the coast this later this evening and
tonight, with the storm threat diminishing with the loss of
heating. Aerial QPF should average between 0.25" and 0.50", though
locally higher amounts of 1"+ are possible in areas that see
several rounds of convective activity. While beneficial, this is
unlikely to make a meaningful dent in the ongoing drought conditions.
The front and low pressure system move offshore Sunday. However,
the sfc low will slow down and modestly deepen as a cutoff low
develops aloft. This will allow sfc high pressure to reinforce
and strengthen to our N. Therefore, expect a cool, dreary, and
potentially wet day Sunday with a cold air damming setup. The
highest PoPs are along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. A tightened
pressure gradient will also allow for breezy conditions along
the immediate coat. Have continued to undercut the NBM (which
struggles in CAD), with highs staying in the 50s for most of the
region, with some lower 60s in NE NC and south central VA. Depending
on the exact configuration of the sfc pattern, particularly where
the low resides, Monday could also end up being cooler than shown
in the forecast, at least along the coast. Latest models show the
push of dry air from the north looks strong enough to lead to a
mostly sunny sky, with the exception of the immediate coast Monday
morning. Overall, expect highs to range from the lower 70s in the
piedmont to the lower 60s at the immediate coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...There are multiple opportunities for additional
rainfall next week with temperatures near to below normal.
A strong upper level trough/low will be in place across central
Canada Tue-Wed, eventually dropping SE towards the Great Lakes
and New England late in the week. At the surface, low pressure
passing through the upper midwest will bring a frontal boundary
through the area Tuesday, possible leading to a few showers. At
this time, PoPs are 30-50%, but rainfall amounts look light as
moisture is fairly limited. A potentially more substantial slug
of moisture is expected late Wednesday, and PoPs from the NBM
are now 70-80% with this feature. Specifics beyond this time
are uncertain but chance PoPs are in place again Fri-Sat.
Temperatures generally will be near to a little cooler than
average for mid- late Spring with variable cloudiness.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...
Conditions will continue to deteriorate at all terminals over the
next few hours as a front brings rain with a few embedded
thunderstorms to the area. In the wake of the initial storms, light
to moderate rain and lowering CIGS are expected, with IFR CIGs
expected overnight through tomorrow morning at all sites. Rain will
start to taper off from west to east starting tomorrow morning
through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be gusty within any
thunderstorms that move through, then will becoming generally light
overnight. NNE winds will then start to ramp up tomorrow morning,
with gusts of 20-25 kt, with occasional gusts to 25-30 kt especially
closer to the coast. CIGs may improve to low end MVFR by the
afternoon with moist onshore flow, but will remain marginal IFR
through most of the afternoon and into the evening.
Outlook: Model trends have been for lingering clouds near the
coast Monday, which could lead to continued flight restrictions.
Inland locations should dry out with primarily VFR conditions
expected.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...
- Solid SCA conditions expected late tonight through Monday
evening, as low pressure deepens offshore. Gusts to Gale Force are
expected over the coastal waters Sunday into Sunday night. Gale
Warnings have been issued for all coastal waters north of the VA/NC
border from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
- Nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding is possible for
communities along the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal VA Rivers. Up
to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is possible.
Afternoon weather analysis shows a weak surface low over the
southern VA and northern NC. The pressure gradient has tighten
across the northern half of the coastal waters ahead of a Quasi-
stationary boundary. This is leading to sold SCA conditions across
the coastal waters north of the Capes and the middle and upper bay.
Winds across these zones remain out of the east between 15 to 20 kt
with gusts upwards of 25-30kt. With the modest onshore flow this has
lead to waves upwards of 3 to 4 ft across the bay zones and 5-7ft
across the ocean with 6 ft seas bashing the beaches based off
cameras and buoy observations. While to the south the pressure
gradient south of the boundary remains weak and winds are out of the
SSE around 10kt with gusts upwards 15 kt. Waves are also lower with
2-3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean.
Through tonight into tomorrow morning the boundary will lift north
as the low pressure system begins to move offshore. Winds across the
north will remain out of the east with winds upwards of 20 kt with
gusts upwards of 25-30kt. While across the south winds will be
between 10-15kt but winds will shift out of the SW. During tonight,
there will be a 1-3 hr period where the winds lower below SCA
criteria as the low moves over the coastal waters. However, seas
across the northern ocean will remain between 5-7ft while across the
bay they will be 2-3ft. By the early morning hours tomorrow, the
low will deepen offshore and its cold front will push through the
area bringing SCA conditions at first across all waters and by mid
to late morning Gale conditions across the coastal waters north of
the VA/NC border. SCA have been issued for the bay, rivers, sound
and coastal waters for N winds between 20-25kt with gusts upwards of
30kt. Will also note, a short fused SCA has been issued for the
coastal zone north of the VA/NC border and south of the Capes due
the Gale force winds coming in later. Confidence in Gale conditions
across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border have increased
and the Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. Winds will
be out of the N between 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-40 kt
(highest gusts well offshore). In addition to the winds, seas will
rapidly increase with 4-5ft across the bay and 6-8ft across the
ocean with 9-11ft well offshore. The SCA conditions are expected to
be prolonged and last through all of SUnday into Monday while the
Gales will drop off Sunday night. However, once the Gale warnings
are dropped they will be replaced with SCA.
Winds will begin to decrease Monday night into Tuesday and that
looks to be the timeframe where SCA for the bays maybe able to be
dropped. While across the ocean seas will continue to remain
elevated with seas remaining greater than 5ft. Will note, by the
middle of next week models have hinted on an additional low pressure
system that could potentially bring elevated marine conditions once
again across the local waters.
Coastal Flooding....
In regards to the coastal flooding potential, tidal anomalies of 0.5
to 1 ft above normal steadily increase late tomorrow into Monday,
due to strong high pressure building to the north and deepening low
pressure exiting NE offshore of the Eastern Shore. The tightening
pressure gradient will bring an increasingly strong NNE flow
tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning wave action/increasing seas
(due to both wind waves and swell). Tidal sites in the lower
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River will have the best chance for
minor tidal flooding impacts with the Sunday night/early Monday
morning high tide cycle, with tides remaining elevated into early
Tuesday. It is certainly possible that a localized round or two of
coastal flood Advisories could be needed for areas in the lower
bay/tidal James Sunday afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor
trends over the next 12-24 hours.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ632-634>637-639.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ633-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-680-
682.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ654.
Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-684-
686.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ656.
&&
DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...HET/MAMHazardous weather outlook, Apr 25, 3:27 AM EST, 15 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
427 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
097>100-509>525-528>531-260830-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
427 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 25, 3:04 PM EST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VAZ060-252045-
Prince Edward VA-
404 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...
At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pamplin City, or near Red House, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Prospect around 430 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Kingsville, Briery
Creek Lake, Tuggle, Elam, Worsham, and Allens Mill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3726 7868 3734 7860 3739 7859 3737 7858
3733 7851 3734 7847 3733 7843 3717 7835
3710 7850 3714 7852 3714 7854 3715 7855
3714 7858 3717 7863 3719 7864 3720 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 247DEG 15KT 3723 7875
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NBSpecial weather statement, Apr 25, 3:36 PM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
436 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VAZ060-061-066>068-252115-
Lunenburg VA-Nottoway VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-Prince Edward VA-
436 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...PRINCE
EDWARD...NORTHWESTERN LUNENBURG...NORTHWESTERN NOTTOWAY AND WEST
CENTRAL AMELIA COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...
At 436 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sheppards to Hampden Sydney to Keysville.
Movement was east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
vehicles. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Farmville, Longwood University, Hampden Sydney College, and
Hampden Sydney around 440 PM EDT.
Rice and Green Bay around 455 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Raines Tavern,
Tuggle, Prince Edward Station, Angola, Briery, Arvins Store, Twin
Lakes State Park, Nutbush, Kingsville, and Elam.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3729 7866 3731 7863 3734 7852 3733 7849
3734 7849 3734 7847 3736 7845 3743 7820
3694 7816 3696 7848 3708 7844 3709 7848
3713 7851 3715 7855 3714 7858 3717 7863
3719 7864 3720 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 257DEG 19KT 3734 7848 3723 7847 3703 7850
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
NBSpecial weather statement, Apr 25, 4:17 PM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
517 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VAZ060>062-065>069-079-080-513-252200-
Lunenburg VA-Mecklenburg VA-Goochland VA-Nottoway VA-
Western Chesterfield VA-Dinwiddie VA-Powhatan VA-Amelia VA-
Cumberland VA-Prince Edward VA-Brunswick VA-
517 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHESTERFIELD...
NORTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
PRINCE EDWARD...LUNENBURG...NOTTOWAY...SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...
NORTHWESTERN DINWIDDIE...AMELIA...POWHATAN AND WESTERN BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 517 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sunnyside to near Nottoway to near
Boydton. Movement was east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Crewe, Victoria, Kenbridge, Nottoway, Lunenburg, Morven,
Ballsville, Tobaccoville, and Jetersville around 520 PM EDT.
Blackstone, Amelia Courthouse, and Trenholm around 530 PM EDT.
Macon around 535 PM EDT.
Powhatan around 540 PM EDT.
Fort Barfoot, Spainville, Scotts Fork, and Chula around 545 PM
EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Bacons Fork, North
Wellville, Wilburn, Angola, Arvins Store, Bowens Corner, Murdocks,
Nutbush, Forksville, and Fairview.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3763 7767 3659 7794 3671 7853 3758 7823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 263DEG 19KT 3753 7814 3708 7816 3672 7845
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NBSpecial weather statement, Apr 25, 4:57 PM EST, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
557 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VAZ066>068-079-080-087-088-513-514-252245-
Lunenburg VA-Nottoway VA-Western Chesterfield VA-Dinwiddie VA-
Sussex VA-Amelia VA-Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
557 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHESTERFIELD...NORTH
CENTRAL GREENSVILLE...EAST CENTRAL LUNENBURG...NOTTOWAY...WEST
CENTRAL SUSSEX...DINWIDDIE...SOUTHEASTERN AMELIA AND NORTHERN
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...
At 557 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mannboro to near Wilsons to Dundas.
Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Mannboro and Wilsons around 600 PM EDT.
McKenney around 620 PM EDT.
Dewitt and Sutherland around 630 PM EDT.
Dinwiddie around 635 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include North Wellville,
Irby, Addison, Earls, Ammon, Murdocks, Forkland, Wharfs Store,
Darvills, and Church Road.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3736 7747 3681 7753 3690 7815 3725 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 252DEG 21KT 3725 7789 3710 7787 3691 7799
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NBSpecial weather statement, Apr 25, 5:29 PM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
629 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VAZ081-082-514-516-252315-
Charles City VA-Prince George VA-Eastern Henrico VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
629 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...
WESTERN CHARLES CITY...NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN
HENRICO COUNTIES...THE CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF
HOPEWELL AND THE CITY OF PETERSBURG THROUGH 715 PM EDT...
At 628 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bellwood to Fort Gregg-Adams. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Hopewell, Colonial Heights, Chester, Fort Gregg-Adams, Prince
George, Bellwood, and Bensley around 635 PM EDT.
Jordans Point around 650 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Wayside, Richmond
Heights, Birchett Estate, Elko, Jordan Point Country Club, Montrose,
Petersburg National Battlefield, Sandston, Glendale, and Richmond
International.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3743 7749 3745 7749 3746 7746 3745 7742
3750 7742 3751 7740 3751 7739 3752 7739
3757 7732 3755 7726 3722 7704 3718 7741
3737 7752 3737 7751 3739 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 237DEG 12KT 3741 7746 3723 7736
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NBSpecial weather statement, Apr 25, 5:43 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VAZ079>081-087>089-092-252330-
Prince George VA-Surry VA-Dinwiddie VA-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-
Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
643 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENSVILLE...
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTHAMPTON...SOUTHERN PRINCE GEORGE...SUSSEX...
DINWIDDIE...NORTHWESTERN SURRY AND NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...
THE CITY OF EMPORIA AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF PETERSBURG THROUGH 730
PM EDT...
At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Petersburg to near Radium. Movement was
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Petersburg, Emporia, Jarratt, Stony Creek, and Carson around 650
PM EDT.
Green Plain around 655 PM EDT.
Disputanta and Sussex around 705 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Grizzard, Dolphin,
Booker, Yale, Pleasant Shade, Lumberton, Wharfs Store, Hilda, Richard
Bland College, and Gwaltney Corner.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3681 7783 3718 7765 3721 7698 3654 7722
3654 7730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 282DEG 20KT 3718 7742 3676 7760
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NB