Relatively clear early-day skies on February 12 led to isolated convection with rain and snow showers across portions of eastern Utah. Some valleys were already saturated or near-saturated due to periods of precipitation over the prior days.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Relatively clear early-day skies on February 12 led to isolated convection with rain and snow showers across portions of eastern Utah. Some valleys were already saturated or near-saturated due to periods of precipitation over the prior days. As such, in spite of dense cloud cover lingering overnight and lacking radiational cooling, saturated surface conditions paired with weakening winds were capable of producing areas of dense fog on the morning on February 13.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 10:37 PM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue overnight with a couple inches of snow possible at the higher elevations through Friday morning. - Another round of mountain snow and valley rain is expected Friday afternoon and evening, favoring the central and southern mountains with the best accumulations over the San Juans in the realm of 2 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts above timberline. - A brief lull occurs over the weekend with dry and warm conditions before the pattern shifts to a more cooler and unsettled one with potential for more mountain snow Tuesday onwards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will continue through the evening into the overnight with a few rumbles of thunder possible as the atmosphere remains unstable enough with steep lapse rates and enough CAPE to support isolated thunderstorm activity. Shower activity will become more isolated by Friday morning as this shortwave exits the region with about another inch or two of snow in the mountains overnight. Another more robust shortwave trough will move across the Four Corners region with the best forcing south of the Four Corners late Friday morning through the day on Friday. Lapse rates will steepen during the afternoon with enough CAPE to support convective showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly over the central and southern mountains. Temperatures remain rather mild so snow levels will remain high with the best snow accumulations above 10kft. Numbers came up a bit from previous runs but still remain within that 2 to 6 inch range on average with locally higher amounts above timberline on the peaks. Probabilities of greater than 6 inches over the San Juans is roughly 30 to 50 percent with higher probabilities above timberline but this is pretty localized. Given the milder temperatures and quick moving nature of this system, roads likely to remain wet as showers will be convective and scattered throughout this event. So, decided to hold off on issuing any winter weather highlights with this Friday system. As this system moves out Friday night, northerly flow behind it could lead to some lingering snow on north-facing slopes. Drier air will move in on Saturday with ridging building in from the west, resulting in a rather quiet weekend. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Friday across the central and southern areas with increased clouds and showers with highs near to slightly above normal. High temperatures are expected to increase this weekend rising to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026 After a quiet weekend, active weather returns to the forecast next week with a deep trough setting up across the western CONUS. There is good consensus between ensemble families that moisture from an Atmospheric River moving inland in southern California will arrive to the local area Monday afternoon. Upslope flow and favorable jet dynamics look to peak on Tuesday so at this time, Monday night through Tuesday night looks to be the main timeframe for accumulating snowfall and winter driving conditions in the mountains from this push of AR moisture. Precipitation chances continue into the latter half of the week with a persistent troughy pattern in place (finally!), but the details become much more uncertain. There are major moisture differences between and within ensemble families Tuesday night onwards. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue to complicate things, but generally speaking, snow levels will be lower next week compared to what we saw the last couple of days. They will also lower throughout the week as cool air works in from the northwest, so light valley snow cannot be ruled out as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026 Scattered rain/snow showers and isolated thunderstorms will become less numerous as the night progresses. The reprieve will be short lived, with more showers moving in from the southwest by daybreak Friday. These showers will spread northeast through out the day leading to more unsettled weather and low vis/cig at times. ILS breakpoints will continue to be met through the TAF period at the mountain terminals. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 221 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-140930- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 221 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Accumulating snowfall will continue mostly over the San Juan Mountains in southwestern Colorado today and tonight, and to a lesser extent the central Colorado mountains. Mountain corridor travel will be impacted times...especially during the colder periods of the overnight and morning hours over mountain passes. There is a 17 percent probability or less of thunderstorm activity this afternoon with lightning and gusty winds being the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. A brief lull in active weather Saturday and Sunday will precede a return of colder wintery weather late Monday through much of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 dense fog. Local standard time, as filed.
Localized dense fog developed near the eastern Uinta Mountains during the early morning of February 13. The K40U AWOS at the Manilla Airport observed reduced visibility to 1/4 mile for about twenty minutes. No reports of injuries, damages, or fatalities were received.
Widespread dense fog developed within the eastern Uinta basin during the morning of February 13. The KVEL ASOS at the Vernal Regional Airport reported almost two hours of 1/4-mile visibility due to dense fog. No reports of injuries, damages, or fatalities were received.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1315948, 1315949.