Despite dense cloud cover throughout the day, a couple of thunderstorms managed to develop during the evening of the 29th in the southeastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Heavy rainfall and some thunderstorm training resulted in flash flooding along I-10 and the nearby frontage roads near Bakersfield.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Despite dense cloud cover throughout the day, a couple of thunderstorms managed to develop during the evening of the 29th in the southeastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Heavy rainfall and some thunderstorm training resulted in flash flooding along I-10 and the nearby frontage roads near Bakersfield.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 5:18 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 618 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 - Any isolated storms that develop later this afternoon and evening will carry a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and brief heavy rainfall. - Warmer conditions with isolated to scattered showers/storms expected through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough centered over southern Nevada, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. A mid-lvl speed max rounding the base of the trough will bring 40-50 kts of deep layer shear into the area this afternoon, suggesting severe convection will be possible. However, this remains inconclusive due to cloud cover, associated CIN, and rather tepid mid-lvl lapse rates. Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping the boundary layer mixed. Combined w/plenty of cloud cover, overnight lows should come in ~ 6-8 F above climatology. Saturday, surface winds are forecast to veer to SW, adding a downslope warming component to assist increasing thicknesses and adding a couple of degrees to today's highs, bringing them to 7-9 F above normal. These winds will also mix the dryline east, confining convective chances mainly to the lower Trans Pecos. Saturday night, the LLJ isn't forecast to be quite as strong as tonight. This, along w/less cloud cover, should shave 3-4 F off of overnight lows. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Sunday, a weak upper ridge looks to be centered just off to our east, with an upper trough overlaying the western US. This leaves our region under southwesterly flow aloft, wherein which several disturbances are expected to pass overhead Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, surface low pressure over the Central Plains draws moist and breezy, south/southeasterly winds over the eastern portions of our area both afternoons. By Sunday afternoon, a dryline is progged to extend NE-SW across the Permian Basin, then south into the Big Bend. Sufficient lift ahead of the dryline and associated with a passing upper disturbance brings low to medium (10-60%) rain chances to the Permian Basin, the Upper and Lower Tans Pecos, and the higher terrain in west Texas. Best odds (40-60%) will be in/near the Davis Mountains. Rain chances taper down Sunday evening, then increase to 10-30% nearly areawide Monday afternoon, as the dryline waffles back west and another disturbance progresses overhead. Rain chances persist Tuesday onward due to a continued flow of disturbances aloft and surface moisture out of the southeast. Our best shot at rainfall across the area will be during the latter half of the week, as an upper low approaches. Despite rain chances, temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to top out above normal. Sunday will be the hottest of the two days, as afternoon highs reach the upper 90s and triple digits (mainly near and along the river valleys). Monday's highs shall warm to just a few degrees shy of Sunday's. Temperatures trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week given increased cloud coverage and rain chances. By midweek, many locations currently look to see highs in the 80s. Overnight lows are generally expected to cool into the 60s each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals through tonight. IsoT remains possible mainly for MAF/FST, but confidence remains low of impact from any convection at this time. Winds settle around or below 10kts overnight with directions mainly out of the south to southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 96 69 99 / 10 0 0 10 Carlsbad 68 96 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 97 71 98 / 10 20 0 10 Fort Stockton 70 97 67 99 / 10 10 0 40 Guadalupe Pass 66 85 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 95 61 98 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 59 91 56 93 / 0 0 0 50 Midland Intl Airport 70 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 70 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 69 97 66 100 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...93
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
727 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM Hail Gail 32.77N 101.44W
05/23/2026 M1.50 Inch Borden TX Public
Delayed public report.
&&
casThe Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:41 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Off duty NWS employee reports the frontage road at I-10 and RM 2886 covered in water and not passable. Water was also flowing over I-10, though it remained passable at the time of the report. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1330113.