Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 29, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
133 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Showers & thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
  and Saturday with severe risks on both days.

- Above normal temperatures becoming hot and muggy this weekend
  with afternoon temperatures in the 90s. Heat indices should be
  close to the actual temperatures.

- Rain/storm chances return next week Tuesday and every day
  through the remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

There is a Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms capable of
producing large & damaging wind gusts by late afternoon into the
evening hours across much of our area, with the highest (Slight)
risk in much of northern into portions of western Oklahoma and
adjacent western north Texas.  Although a few storms could be
ongoing overnight across northcentral Oklahoma the severe risk will
lower after midnight.

A persistent omega blocking pattern aloft will start gradually
shifting eastward across the country as the trough over the Southern
High Plains will shifting as well with a ridge building in behind it
over our area.  A series of short-waves in this subtropical jet flow
will slowly break down the ridge providing some forcing/ascent in
the mid-levels over the Southern High Plains into our western CWA
later today.  Meanwhile in the lower-levels strong surface moisture
remains in place with widespread 60s to lower 70s dewpoints (in
southeast OK) and expecting capping to erode by late afternoon
heating.  Surface-based instability in the moderate to strong
category with RAP & NAM suggesting a bullseye up to 4,000 J/kg of
SBCAPE by late afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Expecting broken skies this afternoon but mostly mid to high based
with much of the denser low stratus scattering out for ample surface
heating but perhaps not maximum diurnal heating.  The surface
feature that may provide enough forcing to break the weak cap would
be a warm front lifting across our area.  Not a strong warm front
but will see a veering of south winds with warm advection/upglide in
the isentropes from the boundary layer to mid-levels.  As a result
can't rule out isolated severe storms breaking out across our area
by late afternoon.  Although the main dryline will be stretched lee
of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies, a weaker/diffused dryline ahead
will be stretched across the Southern High Plains under the mid-
level short-waves where clusters of convection may also initiate
eventually moving into our western CWA as well maintaining a severe
risk into the evening hours.  Temperaturewise, we will see above
normal temperatures and hotter in parts of our western CWA with
highs in the lower 90s.

A low-level jet flow will increase tonight strongest at the 850 mb
level over the Panhandles into western Oklahoma maintaining storm
organization after sundown across our western CWA to more isolated
into central Oklahoma with a decreasing severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Severe convection initiating along a dryline will be possible on
Saturday and dry with no POPs for Sunday.

The upper low from this blocking pattern lifts to the Colorado/Utah
Rockies with a negatively tilted trough opening over the Central
through Southern Plains with a surface low developing lee of the
Colorado Rockies.  This system will start advancing a sharp dryline
across TX/OK Panhandles approaching our western CWA.  Some model
differences with the afternoon dryline punch to our western CWA line
or into the first row of counties in our western CWA?  Still a moist
and moderately unstable environment east of the dryline for storm
development should any initiate.   Forecast sounding showing some
capping across central Oklahoma to no capping further west toward
the dryline.  Probabilities for dryline convection on Saturday
afternoon are in the 20-30% range in the risked area.

Hot will describe temperatures this weekend as the heating trend
continues with widespread 90s across our area.  Sunday may be the
hottest of two days with all sun and maximum heating.  Most of our
area will heat into the mid to upper 90s and could peak to a triple
digit high across our southwest CWA in a few places.  Although not
expecting any dryline convection Sunday, models suggest a more
diffuse dryline across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas
where it may be the hottest although slightly drier air keeping the
heat indices more negligible.  Overall hot, muggy, and dry Sunday
across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Models show the upper ridge continuing to build and affect the
region through at least the middle of next week although it will be
a bit of a dirty ridge with various weak disturbances meandering
across portions of the southern Plains. This will maintain chances
for showers/storms across at least portions of the area next week.

The hot temperatures will continue into Monday with highs once again
in the 90s. After that, temperatures fall back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Showers and storms from this morning continue to dissipate and
skies are breaking down to VFR. Expect mostly VFR conditions to
remain over the next 24 hours once they become established.
Exception is late this evening when a cluster of showers and
storms are possible across much of the area, with heavy downpours
and brief reductions in ceiling or visibility.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  92  71  95 /  20  10  20   0
Hobart OK         68  95  68  98 /  20  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  94  71  96 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           64  94  65  96 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     68  90  70  93 /  50  20  30   0
Durant OK         74  91  75  92 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ025-029-030-291615-
Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-
1040 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Oklahoma, northeastern Cleveland and northwestern Pottawatomie
Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1040 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern Oklahoma City, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Oklahoma City, northeastern Norman, Midwest City, Del
City, Choctaw, Spencer, Nicoma Park, Stella, Tinker Air Force Base,
Stanley Draper Lake, Newalla, northeastern Lake Thunderbird, and
Little Axe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 9747 3551 9740 3540 9705 3520 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 301DEG 23KT 3542 9736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
325 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ017-292100-
Blaine OK-
325 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Blaine
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Greenfield, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watonga and Greenfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 9823 3572 9823 3572 9851 3579 9855
      3590 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 245DEG 11KT 3578 9844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
330 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ017-018-292100-
Kingfisher OK-Blaine OK-
330 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Kingfisher and northeastern Blaine Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northwest of Hitchcock to 5 miles
northeast of Watonga. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watonga, Hitchcock, and Loyal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 9809 3585 9842 3595 9851 3616 9821
      3616 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 241DEG 23KT 3600 9841 3591 9835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
350 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ005-011-292115-
Major OK-Woods OK-
350 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Woods
and western Major Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Orion, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 9852 3621 9884 3633 9896 3635 9896
      3647 9866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 230DEG 16KT 3627 9877

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
409 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ011-012-017-018-292130-
Major OK-Garfield OK-Kingfisher OK-Blaine OK-
409 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Kingfisher, northeastern Blaine, southeastern Major and southwestern
Garfield Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Okeene, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ames and Lacey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9796 3604 9827 3625 9828 3625 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 221DEG 17KT 3608 9820

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
416 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ005-006-011-292145-
Major OK-Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
416 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Woods,
southwestern Alfalfa and central Major Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Orienta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fairview, Cleo Springs, Aline, and Orienta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 9866 3638 9880 3658 9853 3632 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 237DEG 21KT 3634 9861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MDU