Damaging Wind in Texas, May 20, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
134 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

-Line of storms will move through the area early this morning
 bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Multiple rounds of storms are expected through the upcoming
  weekend. At least a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding
  each day, with a potentially increasing risk of river flooding
  later in the period as rainfall totals add up.

- Hazardous beach conditions persist for one more day, with a
  high risk of rip currents expected along the Middle Texas Coast
  and a chance for minor coastal flooding with today's high tide
  cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Synoptic Overview: A very active and wet spring pattern will
prevail for at least the next 7 days as the subtropical jet is
positioned over South Texas, directing a procession of low to
medium amplitude mid-lvl disturbances over the area. At the
surface, a nearly stationary cold front is analyzed over Central
Texas early this morning. This boundary should remain north of our
area, and then eventually lift back northward Thursday into
Friday. The overall low-lvl synoptic pattern will be characterized
by warm and moist S-SE flow through Saturday, although the
presence of outflow boundaries/cold pools and associated mesoscale
gradients will likely complicate the surface picture at times.

Forecast Details: The aforementioned pattern will be characterized by
elevated rain chances (generally 50 to 80%) more or less every
day through early next week. Despite lower than normal
predictability due to the progressive/low-amplitude nature of the
mid-lvl disturbances, at this point there are a few potentially
more impactful periods to highlight within the broader active
period.

1.) Early this morning: A progressive MCS (which originally initiated
near the stationary front well to our north) is moving through the
area early this morning, bringing locally heavy rainfall (1-3 inch
totals) and strong to even damaging winds (although current radar
trends are not overly impressive). This feature should clear the
area around or just after daybreak.

2.) Tonight into Thursday: Convection will likely develop over the
higher terrain of NE Mexico this afternoon, and then aided by lift
from a low amplitude shortwave will likely progress eastward into
the Rio Grande Plains this evening/tonight and then towards the
Coastal Plains Thursday morning. While overall this system looks
smaller-scale and likely weaker (due to less instability) than this
morning's disturbance there is an outside chance at an isolated
severe gust and potential hydro concerns (dependent upon this
morning's rainfall totals). Guidance loosely favors the southern
half our area to experience the highest totals, but given the less
organized nature of this disturbance not particularly confident in
placement.

3.) Late Friday night into Saturday: The highest amplitude mid-lvl
disturbance of the period moves into the area late Friday night
into Saturday. Although we are just outside of the CAM range,
another MCS with heavy rainfall seems probable to accompany this
system. Assuming we will be "primed" due to antecedent rainfall
earlier in the period, hydro concerns may become amplified with
this period.

The aforementioned mid-lvl disturbance looks to cut-off near or just
north of our area Sunday into early next week. If this low can
progress far enough north/east we would have at least a brief period
of somewhat drier conditions as drier filters into the area on its
western flank. Conversely, if it stalls more or less overhead we
will likely see continued wet conditions into Memorial Day/Tuesday.
Temperatures through the entire period will be highly dependent upon
convective timing, although assuming the overnight period remains
most active, highs should largely run near to just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The main concern for the first half of the TAF period will be a line
of storms progged to move through early this morning. Currently 06
to 12Z looks to be the most probable time frame for direct terminal
impacts, with strong winds (gusts in excess of 35 kts) and temporary
visibility reductions the primary concerns. Winds will generally be
out of the SE outside of gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows.
Most shower/thunderstorm activity moves offshore leading to VFR
conditions through the afternoon. From 00Z, thunderstorm activity
off the mountains of Mexico will move eastward, though timing on
this will depend on exact timing/location of storm development, so I
have added PROB30s from 00Z-06Z for KCOT/KLRD/ALI for
thunderstorm/shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) easterly-southeasterly winds are
expected to prevail through the work week with seas decreasing to 3
to 4 ft by late this afternoon. Several rounds of thunderstorms can
be expected through the weekend with the first round expected
early to mid morning today. Brief periods of strong winds
(greater than 34 kts), elevated seas, and reduced visibility can
be expected in storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

No fire weather concerns through the week as moisture increases
and minimum RHs remain over 50% area-wide. Medium to high rain
chances (50-80%) are expected each day through Saturday. These
should be solid wetting rains with aerial averaged totals largely
in the 2 to 4 inch range through Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  76  86  75 /  50  40  70  40
Victoria          88  73  84  71 /  50  50  90  60
Laredo            93  72  88  72 /  30  70  80  50
Alice             90  74  87  72 /  50  40  80  50
Rockport          89  78  87  77 /  50  40  70  50
Cotulla           89  71  86  70 /  40  80  70  40
Kingsville        89  75  87  73 /  40  40  80  40
Navy Corpus       86  78  85  78 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ245-343>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...NC/91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
125 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ229>232-239-200715-
Live Oak TX-McMullen TX-Webb TX-Bee TX-La Salle TX-
125 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LA SALLE...NORTHWESTERN WEBB...
MCMULLEN...NORTHWESTERN LIVE OAK AND NORTHWESTERN BEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 124 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Karnes
City to near Zella to 6 miles northwest of Gilson Groves. Movement
was south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cotulla, George West, Three Rivers, Encinal, Tilden, Choke Canyon,
Cross, Fort Ewell Site, Artesia Wells, Calliham, Karon, Zella,
Pawnee, Simmons, Ray Point, Fowlerton, La Esperanza Ranch Airport,
Nell, Oakville, and Los Angeles.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 35 and 71.
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 56 and 83.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 618 and 632.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 712 and 724.
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 668 and 684.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2820 9940 2845 9939 2858 9877 2864 9861
      2864 9834 2861 9833 2879 9810 2869 9801
      2872 9792 2834 9796 2809 9889 2787 9991
      2798 9993 2800 9999 2815 10008 2819 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0624Z 012DEG 24KT 2883 9800 2853 9879 2831 9985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ229>232-239-240-200800-
Live Oak TX-McMullen TX-Webb TX-Bee TX-Duval TX-La Salle TX-
214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DUVAL...SOUTHERN LA
SALLE...NORTHERN WEBB...MCMULLEN...NORTHWESTERN LIVE OAK AND
NORTHWESTERN BEE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 213 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pawnee to near Fort Ewell Site to near
Chupadera Ranch Airport. Movement was south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
George West, Three Rivers, Encinal, Tilden, Choke Canyon, Cross, Fort
Ewell Site, Artesia Wells, Calliham, Karon, Normanna, Pawnee,
Simmons, Ray Point, Mineral, Loma Alta, Fowlerton, La Esperanza Ranch
Airport, Chupadera Ranch Airport, and Nell.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 31 and 62.
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 58 and 83.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 618 and 632.
 US Highway 181 between mile markers 572 and 584.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 720 and 726.
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 668 and 686.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2820 9940 2837 9939 2838 9902 2865 9850
      2864 9834 2861 9833 2879 9810 2869 9801
      2872 9792 2867 9780 2853 9771 2792 9880
      2792 9991 2806 9996 2808 10002 2820 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 339DEG 20KT 2866 9796 2816 9894 2813 10006

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
221 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ232>234-200800-
Victoria TX-Bee TX-Goliad TX-
221 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT VICTORIA...GOLIAD AND
NORTHEASTERN BEE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fordtran to near Pettus. Movement was
south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Victoria, Goliad, Guadalupe, Fannin, Victoria Colony Creek Country
Club, Weesatche, Weser, Nursery, Victoria Riverside Park, Victoria
College, Victoria Mall, Saxet Lakes, Brentwood Subdivision, Inez,
Salem, Telferner, Charco, Downtown Victoria, Fordtran, and Schroeder.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 181 near mile marker 576.
 US Highway 183 between mile markers 628 and 656.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 624 and 690.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 560 and 590.
 US Highway 87 between mile markers 798 and 818.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 9694 2904 9687 2884 9674 2831 9758
      2864 9782 2892 9742 2887 9730 2910 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 340DEG 16KT 2914 9706 2863 9774

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
357 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ230>234-240>247-342>347-443-447-201000-
Inland Calhoun TX-Calhoun Islands TX-Coastal San Patricio TX-
Nueces Islands TX-Coastal Aransas TX-Aransas Islands TX-Live Oak TX-
Jim Wells TX-Inland Nueces TX-Coastal Calhoun TX-
Inland San Patricio TX-McMullen TX-Victoria TX-Coastal Refugio TX-
Coastal Nueces TX-Bee TX-Inland Refugio TX-Coastal Kleberg TX-
Duval TX-Inland Kleberg TX-Goliad TX-
357 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CALHOUN...NORTHEASTERN DUVAL...
SAN PATRICIO...SOUTHERN VICTORIA...JIM WELLS...REFUGIO...SOUTHEASTERN
BEE...ARANSAS...NUECES...SOUTHEASTERN MCMULLEN...SOUTHEASTERN
GOLIAD...SOUTHERN LIVE OAK AND NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTIES THROUGH
500 AM CDT...

At 356 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Long Mott to Edroy to 6 miles southeast of
Rosita. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Corpus Christi, Kingsville, Alice, Portland, Beeville, Robstown,
Rockport, Sinton, Mathis, San Diego, Port Aransas, Taft, Refugio,
Woodsboro, Seadrift, Driscoll, Port Oconnor, Corpus Christi
International Airport, Skidmore, and McFaddin.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 1 and 54.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 638 and 688.
 US Highway 181 between mile markers 590 and 648.
 US Highway 183 between mile markers 648 and 668.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 692 and 710, and between mile
markers 742 and 750.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 586 and 696.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2829 9635 2801 9680 2784 9692 2766 9721
      2745 9774 2742 9804 2805 9842 2830 9806
      2875 9699 2851 9650 2849 9656 2848 9655
      2847 9652 2850 9649 2847 9642 2838 9638
      2835 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 306DEG 24KT 2851 9668 2797 9767 2771 9836

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BF