Wildfire and High Wind in Texas, May 18 to 19, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
238 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

 - Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected through
   10 PM CDT tonight, with the potential for dangerous growth and
   spread of wildfires that will move at a life-threatening pace
   should ignition occur.

 - Isolated-to-scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across
   the eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening.

 - Additional storm chances arrive in the Rolling Plains early
   Tuesday morning along a cold front, with area-wide storm chances,
   some severe, continuing through the end of the week.

   &&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A bimodal risk of dangerous fire weather conditions and severe
thunderstorms is expected, with the potential for severe storms
confined to the eastern Rolling Plains. In the mid/upper-levels, an
amplified, negatively-tilting shortwave trough was digging into the
Four Corners region, with a 250 mb and 500 mb jet streak approaching
100 kt and 50 kt, respectively, rounding its base as the trough
begins to eject northeastward into the central Great Plains. The
most substantial large-scale forcing for ascent remains displaced to
the north of the CWA as a result of the position of this compacted,
shortwave trough, with only modest ascent expected over the Rolling
Plains this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB from WFO AMA observed 55 kt and
50 kt of flow at 250 mb and 500 mb, respectively; as the left-exit
region of the southern-stream jetlet remained positioned over the TX
PH. High-level flow is expected to weaken by this evening as the
negatively-tilted trough ejects over the NE Sandhills by 19/00Z,
with mid-level flow eventually veering west-southwestward as the CWA
becomes positioned beneath the bifurcated jetlets aloft. Deep- and
cloud-layer shear will become modest tonight, with broadly cyclonic
flow aloft expected to be maintained through the short-term period.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was located to the north of
the CWA and across the OK PH, with the front bending northwestward
where a lee cyclone near RTN was present. A weaker surface cyclone
was located north of WWD, with the quasi-stationary front bending
farther northeast into central KS. Sharp baroclinity exists with
this front, with very cool temperatures on its north side along the
I-70 corridor in northwestern KS where temperatures are currently in
the middle 40s. There is also a 20-degree temperature gradient
between LBL and HHF, or about 85 statute miles. The dryline extends
southward from near DUX and is currently positioned along the edge
of the Caprock Escarpment where a subtle bulge is present, with the
65 degree isodrosotherm delineated along the 100th meridian. Strong,
southwesterly winds were present behind the dryline, with a 53 mph
gust observed by the WTM site near Shallowater; and winds remain
backed towards the south across the moist sector. Intense heating
was also underway across the CWA, and temperatures have already
breached 95 degrees for some locales in the Rolling Plains as of
1745Z where surface-based cu continues to bubble. Highs will breach
100 degrees east of the Caprock this afternoon, with near-record
highs possible at CDS. For details involving the fire weather
forecast today, please read the Fire Weather section below.

Isolated-to-widely-scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
along the southern edge of the dryline bulge this afternoon across
the eastern Rolling Plains, with the best potential for storms being
in the southeastern zones. Storms that develop will be severe. The
12Z RAOB from WFO AMA sampled a well-defined EML, characterized by
MLCAPE values near 2,200 J/kg and near 3,200 J/kg for most-unstable
parcel trajectories. Mid-level cooling associated with the
geopotential height falls have maintained very steep lapse rates
atop moderate CINH, with L57 of 8.5 deg C/km, which matches current
RAP estimates over the Rolling Plains. MLCINH was half of its value
from yesterday, or around -131 J/kg, which will continue to erode
across the moist sector throughout the afternoon as hot surface
temperatures breach 100 degrees. Low-level convergence will be
enhanced by the present of the subtle dryline bulge, and with
minimal MLCINH by late-afternoon, rapid thunderstorm development is
forecast to occur, with storms quickly becoming severe and posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and very large hail up to
baseball size. The potential for severe-caliber storms will be early
on in the convective stage while cloud-layer shear magnitudes remain
modest, at or around 30 kt, as the weakening 250 mb flow will curb
hydrometeor venting within updrafts. Initial high-based LCLs within
the hotter air will also enhance the magnitude of outflow(s), which
may result in some localized merging/clustering of cells as diabatic
stabilization of the boundary-layer begins. Therefore, the risk for
severe storms will be short-lived, but the steep lapse rates and
favorable wind profiles for mid-level mesocyclones yields confidence
in an isolated, significant hail up to baseball size across the east
and southeastern Rolling Plains. Storm chances along the dryline
will end after dark, or by 19/03Z.

After dark, the quasi-stationary front currently draped across the
OK PH will progress southward into the early morning hours Tuesday
as the negatively-tilted trough dampens entirely. The movement of
the cold front will be convectively-reinforced by a squall line/MCS
across western OK and into the TX Big Country. Moist, isentropic
ascent atop the sharp convergence along the cold front may result in
the formation of a broken line of elevated storms along the front as
it moves southward across the Rolling Plains during the predawn
hours Tuesday. Moderate thermal instability will be maintained above
the anafront, with the potential for large hail between 1-2" in
diameter should updrafts be able to become organized. Otherwise, a
mixed-mode of rain showers and weaker storms will be more common by
dawn Tuesday. The front is forecast to clear south of the CWA after
sunrise, with brisk, northerly winds expected post-FROPA. Winds will
gradually veer throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours,
with winds diminishing Tuesday afternoon. As previously mentioned,
broadly cyclonic flow will persist aloft, and with the potential for
convectively-augmented vorticity lobes to propagate over the Permian
Basin and into the TX Big Country, elevated storms will be possible
across the southeastern Rolling Plains into early Tuesday afternoon,
but confidence in this scenario is low, and it appears that any
storm potential will be south of the CWA. The surface and low-level
airmass in the Rolling Plains will have been contaminated by the
passage of the synoptic cold front and remnant outflow boundaries,
but with upslope, low-level winds beneath southwesterly flow aloft,
the potential cannot be ruled out for a localized severe storm
across the southeastern zones. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures
are forecast area-wide, with highs ranging from the middle 70s
across the far southern TX PH to the middle 80s in the southern
South and Rolling Plains.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to persist across the western U.S.
through the latter half of the week. Cool temperatures are expected
across the CWA Wednesday, with highs struggling to climb above the
middle 70s as the post-frontal, upslope flow remains intact. The
stalled front is forecast to bend northwestward into eastern NM late
Wednesday, and with the CWA positioned beneath the right-entrance
region to an amplified jet streak arcing into the Upper Midwest,
there is an increasing potential for multiple rounds of storms from
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Global and now-in-range
mesoscale NWP guidance has been consistent in the potential for an
overnight convective event as a vorticity lobe rotates towards the
northeast out of northern Mexico, with the possibility for bands or
clusters of storms to progress over W TX. Severe-caliber storms will
be possible, with the potential for storms to produce heavy rain,
but where exactly storms occur remains unclear. The primary severe
hazards involved with storms Wednesday will be large hail, as the
stalled front will be south and west of the CWA, thereby keeping
parcel trajectories elevated above the cool, stable airmass. Storm
chances remain forecast throughout the end of the week and into this
weekend as broad troughing persists over the western U.S.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Breezy southwest winds sustained near 25-30 kts and gusting to 40
kts will continue at all sites through this evening. Winds will
diminish overnight, before increasing out of the north Tuesday
morning. VFR will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A high-end fire weather episode is underway today, with extremely
critical fire weather conditions expected for a large portion of the
CWA. Strong, southwesterly winds between 25-35 mph, with gusts up to
55 mph, will occur across the Caprock and into the far southeastern
Texas Panhandle. The only change from the previous forecast(s) was a
slight increase in wind gusts, with wind gusts up to 55 mph now
expected across most of the Caprock. RH will fall to as low as 4
percent this afternoon amidst hot surface temperatures ranging from
the lower-middle 90s on the Caprock to near or in excess of 100
degrees in the Rolling Plains. Very deep mixing of the airmass
remains expected, which will facilitate the strongest wind gust
potential beyond 3 PM CDT as temperatures peak. The dryline will
move into the Rolling Plains by the mid-afternoon hours, with winds
transitioning towards the south ahead of it. Isolated-to-scattered
severe thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern Rolling Plains
this afternoon and evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes may
occur in rain-free areas. Storms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with sudden and erratic changes in
wind direction expected near storms. Otherwise, conditions will be
favorable for dangerous growth and spread of wildfires through
tonight. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 PM CDT for
the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains.

A strong cold front will move through the forecast area during the
early morning hours Tuesday, and is currently forecast to cross into
the far southern TX PH by 3 AM CDT. Trends in the frontal timing
will continue to be monitored. A wind shift to the north will occur
immediately post-frontal passage, with wind speeds between 15-25 mph
and localized gusts between 30-35 mph expected as the cold front
moves through the forecast area. Storms may also develop across the
Rolling Plains along the cold front. The front is forecast to clear
south of the CWA shortly after sunrise Tuesday, with northerly winds
gradually diminishing while veering eastward into the afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-
039>043.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>031-033>036.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...19
FIRE WEATHER...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

TXZ021>044-191930-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
221 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected through this
evening. The combination of strong winds, very low relative
humidity, and extremely dry fuels will result in the potential for
dangerous growth and spread of wildfires that will move at a life-
threatening pace should ignition occur. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and
most of the Rolling Plains until 10 PM CDT tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle,
northern Rolling Plains, and much of the South Plains from noon to
8 PM this evening. Southwesterly winds between 25 to 35 mph, with
gusts up to 55 mph, are expected. Blowing dust may result in
localized reductions in visibility on the Caprock.

Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms that
develop will be severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph and very large hail up to baseball size. Locally heavy
rainfall will accompany storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Rolling Plains
during the predawn hours Tuesday along the cold front. Large hail
will be possible, if storms can organize. The severe weather threat
is low otherwise Tuesday morning.

Additional chances for thunderstorms will arrive for portions of the
region Wednesday through the end of the week. A few storms may be
severe each day, with heavy rainfall possible Wednesday into
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.