An incoming shortwave trough brought showers and some thunderstorms to west Texas and southeast New Mexico overnight April 30th and especially during the morning of May 1st. During the morning of the 1st, rainfall became locally heavy at times, which resulting in flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
An incoming shortwave trough brought showers and some thunderstorms to west Texas and southeast New Mexico overnight April 30th and especially during the morning of May 1st. During the morning of the 1st, rainfall became locally heavy at times, which resulting in flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas. Showers largely cleared the area during the afternoon of the 1st as the shortwave moved east of MAF's CWA, taking the best lift and moisture with it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 5:56 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
656 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
- Numerous to widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
will spread over much of the area through this afternoon before
tapering off this evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding over portions of the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains,
southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend
before highs rebound closer to normal by next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave
trough moving over the vicinity of northern Mexico and the
southern Arizona/New Mexico border early this morning. Deep layer
moisture continues to spread over southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas within the southwesterly flow aloft in advance of
this system with precipitable water values between 0.9 and 1.2
inches over our CWA per SPC mesoscale analysis. A surface cold
front will remain oriented along the far western fringes of the
forecast area through the day. Short range model solutions and
high resolution CAMs remain consistent with bringing numerous to
widespread coverage of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
across much of our forecast area through the morning hours as the
shortwave trough approaches from the west. The abundant atmospheric
moisture will be prime for heavy rain, with increasing probabilities
for rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches generally along and east of
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains today. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for most areas along and east of the mountains today,
including the Guadalupe/Davis/Delaware Mountains, the southeast
New Mexico Plains, the Trans Pecos region, and much of the Permian
Basin. We did opt to add Central Brewster County into the watch
given potential for rounds of heavy rainfall/convection over
portions of that zone today. Flooding of urban, poor drainage, low
water crossings, creeks/streams, and other low lying areas may
occur if heavy rains fall within a short period of time. The
potential for heavy rainfall should shift east of our region by
late this afternoon with the passing shortwave trough, but a few
showers and thunderstorms could linger into this evening before
rain chances continue to diminish tonight. Temperatures will be
well below normal behind the cold front today and along with the
high rain chances. Readings are forecast to range in the 50s and
60s over much of the region, except 70s to low 80s along the
Presidio Valley and portions of the Big Bend. Lows tonight are
forecast to fall into the 40s over much of the region, except
upper 30s in the higher terrain areas and lower to mid 50s along
the Rio Grande.
Drier conditions are anticipated on Saturday underneath a west-
northwest flow pattern aloft. Surface high pressure will gradually
shift to our east, but temperatures remain below normal with highs
mostly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. Weak
ridging embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail Sunday
into Monday, allowing for a warming trend both days. Highs in the
70s on Sunday should trend upward into the 80s over much of our
region by Monday (a few locations may reach into the low to mid
90s along the Rio Grande Monday afternoon). The next upper level
trough/low is forecast to deepen over California and the Desert
Southwest Monday night into Tuesday with the trough/low
potentially pinching over the Desert Southwest and Baja region
during the middle to latter part of the week. Shortwave impulses
within southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature along with a
potential front may support at least a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms returning back into the forecast by Thursday.
Temperatures otherwise remain near to slightly below normal
through the middle to latter part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
IFR to MVFR ceilings will be prevalent over area terminals through
early-mid afternoon. Numerous to widespread rain showers and
scattered thunderstorms will continue to move east over the region
this morning, some with heavy rainfall and reduced visibility to
IFR or lower thresholds. Ceilings should gradually scatter after
00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 57 44 70 48 / 90 10 0 0
Carlsbad 59 46 65 46 / 90 30 10 0
Dryden 70 50 67 51 / 90 20 0 0
Fort Stockton 64 45 67 48 / 100 20 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 54 41 57 47 / 80 30 10 0
Hobbs 56 40 66 44 / 90 20 0 0
Marfa 65 39 64 41 / 80 20 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 57 44 67 49 / 100 10 0 0
Odessa 57 44 67 50 / 100 10 0 0
Wink 60 44 66 48 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon for Andrews-
Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.
NM...Flood Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy
County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:31 UTC.
5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A web camera (operated by broadcast media) showed flash flooding of a low-water crossing in Andrews. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar. No damage was reported.
Broadcast media reported street flooding in Odessa. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar. No damage was reported.
Report was received from the public of flash flooding near JBS Boulevard at Trunk Street and Fabco. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar. No damage was reported.
Public report from an MPING of street/road flooding in Midland. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar. No damage was reported.
A member of the public reported street flooding on Tom Green Avenue in Odessa. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1323991, 1323989, 1323990, 1323992, 1323993.