The onset of much needed rainfall in April had reduced drought conditions across the region by the end of the month, with around 56% of the far south Texas region in Severe (D2) and just 2% in Extreme (D3). Some portion of each county remained in D2, with the coastal and barrier islands having improved to Moderate (D1) Drought, which is not considered for Storm Data.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
The onset of much needed rainfall in April had reduced drought conditions across the region by the end of the month, with around 56% of the far south Texas region in Severe (D2) and just 2% in Extreme (D3). Some portion of each county remained in D2, with the coastal and barrier islands having improved to Moderate (D1) Drought, which is not considered for Storm Data. Generally dry conditions through May 8th maintained status quo before localized rains soon after began to improve conditions, especially west of IH-69C/US 281 from Hidalgo/Brooks westward.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:36 PM CST, 24 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1236 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Key Messages:
* One more day of hot temperatures on Friday, with a Minor to
Moderate Heat Risk (Levels 1 and 2 out of 4) as afternoon heat
indices reach into the lower 100s across most of the RGV.
* Showers and thunderstorms bring a low to medium (20-50%) chance
of rain to the Northern Ranchlands Friday morning and afternoon,
followed by a low to medium (30-60%) chance for the rest of
the region Friday evening into the nighttime hours.
* Forecast confidence remains low at this time for the likelihood
of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight through
Friday night.
* High Surf Advisory and Small Craft Advisory go into effect
Friday night as breezy to strong northerly winds along/behind
the front result in large breaking waves, life threatening rip
currents and adverse marine conditions into Saturday night.
* Temperatures drop at least 15-20 degrees behind the front
Friday night into Saturday before steadily rising on Sunday
back to above average by next Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Surface observations and radar imagery this evening reveal a
stationary boundary draped across the Rio Grande Plains and the
Northern Ranchlands as well as convection firing off the Sierra
Madre to the northwest and southern-central Texas, where forcing
from upper level divergence and ascent aloft are enhancing ahead of
a mid/upper level trough moving into northern Mexico. As the trough
draws further east and associated forcing expands southeastward
tonight, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop
progressively further south and into southern Texas by Friday
morning. At this time, the Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) best
initializing the latest conditions are indicating strong to severe
thunderstorms remaining well north of Deep South Texas tonight into
Friday morning. Yet, the NAM 3 km and HRRR bring the convection
further south and initiating off the frontal boundary, where the
HRRR clips the extreme northern portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg,
Brooks and Kenedy counties with showers and isolated, but short-
lived, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms at some point
from late tonight through the mid-morning hours on Friday. As
such, SPC does include those areas within a Marginal (Level 1/5)
risk of severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat of isolated
large (1"+) hail and strong wind gusts transitioning to a hail
risk in the morning due to deep layer shear in place along with
relatively steep lower/mid-level lapse rates and marginally
sufficient MUCAPE. However, it should be noted that the HRRR is an
outlier at this point and the more likely scenario is that the
strong to severe threat remains well to the north while light to
moderate showers, and potentially a rumble of thunder or two,
bring a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain to the Rio Grande
Plains and the Northern Ranchlands Friday morning into the
afternoon. Temperatures minimize in the 70s tonight along with
muggy conditions.
The trough ejects eastward and north of our region during the day
Friday and surface high pressure and northerly winds on the
backside of the associated surface low pressure system send a cold
front southward through Deep South Texas late Friday afternoon
into Friday night, increasing chances of rain to as much as a low
to medium (30-60%) chance Friday night for areas south of the
Northern Ranchlands. This will be another period to watch for any
stronger storm potential; the RAP and GFS pose a small window of
atmospheric instability and steep lapse rates coinciding with
convection developing with the front to develop isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms. Yet, again, CAM solutions still remain very
incohesive and confidence is too low to say one way or the other
beyond the current expectation of passing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms bringing generally around 0.3-0.7 of an
inch of rain to the Lower and Middle RGV.
Temperature-wise, another hot day is anticipated ahead of the
front on Friday, reaching into the low/mid 90s for most, though
cloud coverage over the Rio Grande Plains and western portions of
the Brush Country could keep temperatures in the 80s. Afternoon
heat indices in the lower 100s are likely across most of the RGV,
bringing mainly a Minor Heat Risk to the CWA as well as a Moderate
Heat Risk roughly between US-281 and I-69 E. Behind the front,
breezy northerly winds, gusting to 20-30+ mph, advect much cooler,
drier and refreshing air, dropping temperatures down to the upper
50s/lower 60s by Saturday morning and only rising into the
mid/upper 70s Saturday afternoon, which is a good 15-20 degrees
cooler than Friday. Ridging aloft and the return of southeasterly
winds by Monday moderate and warm temperatures back to above
normal by next Tuesday. The next potential cold front and
unsettled weather could be by the later part of next week.
Due to gusty northerly winds along the coast and strong winds over
the Gulf behind the front, a High Surf Advisory goes into effect 1
AM Saturday morning until 1 AM Sunday morning for large breaking
waves of 6-10 feet. Additionally, a High Risk of Rip Currents is
likely to be issued overnight tonight or on Friday as winds and
large waves lead to life-threatening rip currents, lasting possibly
into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop early this morning before
lifting to VFR levels after sunrise. A cold front is forecast to
move through the area Friday evening, resulting in a northerly
wind shift and the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-4
ft) seas continue tonight through Friday afternoon ahead of a cold
front arriving in the evening into Friday night. A Small Craft
Advisory goes into effect for all Lower Texas coastal waters (0-60
nm out) from 7 PM Friday evening until 1 AM Sunday morning as strong
northerly winds and near gale force gusts along and behind the front
result in moderate to rough (6-10 ft, or greater) seas and rough
conditions on the bay into late Saturday night. Developing showers
and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front increase chances of
rain north to south from late Friday afternoon to as much as a low
to medium (30-60%) chance late Friday night. Although confidence and
chances are low at this time, there is a slight potential for
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as the unsettled weather
arrives. Otherwise, chances of rain decrease throughout the day
Saturday and winds and seas improve throughout the remainder of
Saturday night and into the rest of the weekend. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas resume on Sunday, becoming southeasterly on
Monday, with moderate to fresh winds and periods of Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions developing by midweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 91 61 73 64 / 10 60 30 0
HARLINGEN 94 59 76 59 / 10 50 20 0
MCALLEN 95 62 78 61 / 10 50 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 58 78 56 / 20 40 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 66 73 69 / 10 60 40 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 61 74 64 / 10 60 30 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday
for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BEThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted in southwest Kenedy County through May 25th. Two locally heavy rain events on the 20th and 21st would bring an end to D2, replaced by Moderate (D1) conditions to close out the month.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across the western two-thirds of inland Willacy County through May 25th. Two locally heavy rain events on the 20th and 21st would bring an end to D2, replaced by Moderate (D1) conditions to close out the month.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across the western three-quarters of inland Cameron County through May 25th. Two locally heavy rain events on the 20th and 21st would bring an end to D2, replaced by Moderate (D1) conditions (county-wide) to close out the month.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across all of northern Hidalgo County until May 11th, before the area shrunk back to cover the eastern third of northern Hidalgo County between May 12th and 25th. Thunderstorms early on May 9th cut back the area for the May 12th Drought Monitor; more widespread activity on the mornings of May 20th and 21st were sufficient to reduce conditions to Moderate (D1) in the eastern third beginning on the 26th, with dryness (D0) elsewhere.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across all but the southwest corner of southern Hidalgo County until May 11th, before the area shrunk back to cover the eastern third of southern Hidalgo County between May 12th and 25th. Thunderstorms early on May 9th cut back the area for the May 12th Drought Monitor; more widespread activity on the mornings of May 20th and 21st were sufficient to reduce conditions to Moderate (D1) in the eastern third beginning on the 26th, with dryness (D0) elsewhere, except no dryness/drought from Mission to La Joya/Sullivan City at that time.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across the southern one-fifth of Brooks County until May 11th, before the area shrunk back a little to just cover the southeast corner through the 25th. Fairly widespread activity on the mornings of May 20th and 21st were sufficient to reduce conditions to Moderate (D1) in the southeast corner and northern third on the 26th, with dryness (D0) through the middle, except for a small pocket of no drought/dryness in the southwest fifth of the county then.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across all but the eastern/southeastern third of Jim Hogg County to begin May, with a small sliver of Extreme (D3) holding on across the northwest portion of the county, through the 11th. Rains late on May 8/early on May 9 would improve drought by one category across the county, which showed up on the May 12th Drought Monitor.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across a section of central Starr County through May 11th. Locally heavy rainfall late on May 8th and into May 9th was sufficient for a one-category improvement across the county, ending D2 conditions and replacing with Moderate (D1) conditions in this section of the county (Abnormal Dryness, or D0, elsewhere).
Severe (D2) Drought persisted across all of Zapata County, with a sliver in the northeast holding at Extreme (D3), through May 11th - as locally heavy rainfall late on May 8th and into May 9th was sufficient for a one-category improvement across the county, ending D2 conditions for all but the far northeast corner, which improved from D3 to D2.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1344520, 1344522, 1344524, 1344526, 1344532, 1344535, 1344540, 1344542, 1344543.