Drought in Texas, May 1 to 6, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1256 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

 - Showers will continue throughout the day today and overnight,
   coming to an end by daybreak Saturday. Accumulations of 1-3
   inches are possible, and may lead to localized flash flooding
   hazards.

 - The weekend will be quiet, dry, and cooler than average, with
   lows in the 40s and highs in the 70s.

 - Next week will begin with a warming trend, with scattered
   storms returning by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

The frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast will still be in
place today, and will continue to channel lower level moisture into
the ArkLaTex on west to east flow. Resulting showers will thus
continue throughout the day Friday and much of the overnight hours,
ending between midnight and daybreak Saturday morning. Total
accumulations look to range from less than half an inch along and
north of I-30, to between 1 and 2 inches along the I-20 corridor,
and greater than 2 inches south of I-20. The potential still
exists for resulting flash flooding, particularly in urban areas
affected by periods of locally heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile, these periods of prolonged rainfall and the associated
cloud cover will keep temperatures cool, only climbing into the 60s
this afternoon. Overnight, lows will fall into the 50s with a few
upper 40s possible north. By Saturday, a large area of upper level
ridging and building surface high pressure advances into the deep
south, finally kicking the stationary boundary into motion, and
allowing afternoon highs to climb into the 70s across the ArkLaTex
under clearing skies, a good 5-10 degrees below average. This cooler-
than-normal spell will continue through the weekend, with lows in
the mid to upper 40s expected Sunday morning, followed by highs in
the upper 70s.

A warm up to more seasonable highs in the 80s is expected to begin
the new work week, with quiet weather continuing Monday before as
slight chance of thunder returns to our northeastern zones Tuesday,
becoming more widespread by the middle of the week as a series of
weak disturbances attempt to emerge in the upper level flow, before
conditions quiet down again by the tail end of this extended
forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

For the 01/06Z TAF period, expect deteriorating flight conditions
throughout the period as cigs/vsby continue to lower to MVFR/IFR
with the onset of moderate to occasionally heavy rain along and
south of the I-20 terminals. Farther north at KTXK and KELD, rain
will be more sparse in coverage with TEMPO conditions to account
for intermittent occurrence early this morning while the majority
of convection will likely remain south of these two terminals for
much of the day on Friday. However, cigs will still drop at these
northern sites as well, just not quite as low with mainly low VFR
to occasional MVFR cigs during the period. Otherwise, expect N/NE
winds generally ranging between 5-10 kts with some gusts possible
during Monday afternoon as heavier rain impacts most terminals.
Convection should begin to taper off very late in the period with
the exception of KMLU where it will likely persist through 02/06Z.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  51  71  48 /  90  80   0   0
MLU  61  51  72  47 /  90  90   0   0
DEQ  66  46  72  43 /  30  20   0   0
TXK  63  50  73  48 /  50  40   0   0
ELD  62  47  71  44 /  60  60   0   0
TYR  58  50  71  50 /  90  60   0   0
GGG  58  49  71  48 /  90  70   0   0
LFK  60  50  72  48 / 100  80   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19