Name: Drought in Texas, March 10 to 31, 2026
Start: 2026-03-10T00:00
End: 2026-03-31T23:59
Location: Texas

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

A supercell thunderstorm dropped between 2 and more than 4 inches, perhaps 5 inches, along and just north of the Rio Grande late March 7 into early March 8, allowing for one category of drought improvement along the US 83 corridor. Meanwhile, the supercell missed the remainder of the county, which continued with no rain, warm to hot conditions, and periods of low humidity to increase the coverage of Exceptional (D4) Drought.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 11:40 PM CST, 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Key Messages:
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through mid-week, with wind speeds picking up Tuesday due to a tightened pressure gradient.
There is a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night ahead of a cold front.
A stronger front Wednesday night will likely bring more seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm again by the weekend, with no rain expected.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 11:40 PM CST, 20 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through mid-week,
  with wind speeds picking up Tuesday due to a tightened pressure
  gradient.

- There is a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms
  Tuesday night ahead of a cold front.

- A stronger front Wednesday night will likely bring more
  seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm again by the weekend,
  with no rain expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A cold front is forecast to move through Deep South Texas Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, with a secondary front arriving
Wednesday night. A line of convection will likely develop along
the frontal boundary Tuesday as it moves across Central Texas,
with uncertainty on how far south this line may extend Tuesday
evening. The latest probabilistic guidance has rain chances around
20-30% for the western third of the CWA Tuesday night. The latest
HiRes model guidance keeps the majority of the convection north
of the CWA Tuesday evening/night, though the 0z run of the HRRR
does have a few showers or thunderstorms clipping the northwestern
portion of the CWA early Tuesday night.

With the timing of the front likely overnight, instability will
likely be decreasing in advance of the front, which will likely
decrease the potential for convection to develop or be sustained
along the front. However, ample wind shear ahead of the front
could support strong, but likely sub-severe, thunderstorms if any
convection is able to sustain itself overnight.

Temperatures behind this initial front will remain hot Wednesday,
with highs likely remaining in the low to mid 90s. However, this
air mass will be much drier which will likely allow relative
humidity values to fall to the teens to low 20s Wednesday
afternoon. Wind speeds will likely remain low enough Wednesday
afternoon to limit fire weather concerns.

The stronger front Wednesday night will likely allow high
temperatures to fall to the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday, before
gradually returning to the 90s over the weekend. Stronger winds
through the later half of the week and relative humidity values
between 20-30% could pose a risk for elevated fire weather
conditions Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the overnight
hours and early morning hours. The pressure gradient is expected
to tighten ahead of a frontal boundary approaching the region that
will produce gusty winds up to 30 knots over the region. As
these gusty winds pick up the ceilings should go to VFR for the
day time hours. While the winds are expected to weaken slightly
during the overnight hours, they should still gust up to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Tightening pressure gradients ahead of a cold front will likely
result in stronger southeasterly winds Tuesday afternoon, likely
requiring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small
Craft Advisories for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters.
Conditions will likely briefly improve Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the first of tow cold fronts move through the
region. However, stronger northerly winds in the wake of the
second front Wednesday night will likely result in another round
of hazardous marine conditions likely requiring Small Craft
Advisories for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  72  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               90  70  94  57 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  73  97  62 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  69  94  61 /   0  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  72  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  70  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...64-Katz

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Starr

When: March 10, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Starr forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.562, -98.738 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

On March 7 into early March 8, torrential rain, accompanied by wind and hail, dropped between 2 and up to 4-5 inches along the Rio Grande from Roma to the Hidalgo County line. This allowed drought conditions to improve one category, from Extreme (D3) to Severe (D2) along and near the river. Meanwhile, the same storm completely missed central and northern Starr, and Extreme to Exceptional (D4) Drought continued. D4 conditions expanded southward to eventually include all of northern Starr by the 24th.

Cattle ranchers in northern and central Starr continued to cull herds due to the lack of sufficient grazing land, which became dusty in many spots. Water hauling was required to maintain the herds that remained. Unknown was the impact of the drought on any calving.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, March 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327510.