An upper-level low-pressure center progressed eastward through the Plains on the afternoon and evening of March 10, leading to the development of thunderstorms. These storms were able to initiate along a dryline across the Big Country.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
An upper-level low-pressure center progressed eastward through the Plains on the afternoon and evening of March 10, leading to the development of thunderstorms. These storms were able to initiate along a dryline across the Big Country. As the storms moved east through the forecast area, some generated large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 10, 12:55 PM CST, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 155 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of Central and East Texas. Severe weather will become likely by evening and tonight across much of the region. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. A few spin up tornadoes are also possible. - Some storms will linger into Wednesday mainly along and east of I-35 with a continued threat for hail, winds, and flash flooding. - Warm and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week after storms move out of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 An active weather pattern will remain in place through the short- term period with the potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight and locally heavy rain and flooding through tomorrow. Latest radar and satellite imagery show warm advection showers and isolated storm spreading mainly over Central and East Texas. A surface low and dryline remains far to our west over West Texas and will slowly move eastward this evening and tonight. We're still watching two rounds of storms to impact our area, the first one later this afternoon (between 3-7pm) and the second near/along the dryline this evening and tonight. This afternoon: Latest high-resolution models continue to show less coverage of scattered storms over our region for this afternoon, with a focus mainly across our far southeastern/eastern counties. Based on the 18Z FWD and several ACARs soundings, the environment over the DFW Metroplex remains fairly stable with an evident cap in place near the 850-900mb layer. While these areas to the east/southeast of I-35 will lack of a stronger lift, enough instability and shear could still support some isolated severe storms with large hail and a tornado or two possible if they remain discrete. This Evening and Tonight: As the upper low tracks eastward, the surface low and dryline should also make its progression over our area. Widespread showers and storms should begin to develop west of our area late afternoon and enter our western counties this evening (after 7pm). While we could see some messy storm mode at first, storms are still expected to congeal into a line as it moves towards the I-35 corridor after 9-10pm. Very large to giant hail will be the main threat mainly across our western counties, but as the storms organize more into a line, we could transition more into a threat for damaging winds and a few spin up tornadoes. Additionally, we could see locally heavy rain and minor flooding with some of the stronger cells during the overnight hours. The severe threat should slowly decrease as the line moves east of I-35 after 1 am tonight, but lingering showers and storms will continue through the night. Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop during the day as the upper trough moves over our state and a surface low/cold front moves through the region. Rain and storm chances will begin to decrease for North Texas early in the afternoon as the front approaches Central Texas. A few strong to severe storms may develop mainly across our far southern counties with damaging winds and hail as the main threat. In addition to the severe risk, pockets of heavy rain may also result in flash flooding due to high PWs and very efficient rainfall rates. As the main line of showers and storms move east, breezy northerly wind are expected across the region in the afternoon and Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 After the mid-week system moves east and out of our area, dry conditions will persist through end of the week into the weekend. Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs in the 60s, but a quick warming trend will return Friday through the weekend. A stronger front is forecast to arrive on Sunday but no rain is anticipated. Much cooler weather will follow into Monday with highs in the 50s and low 60s. Lows Monday night may drop into the 30s/40s which is 5-10 degrees below normal for mid March. We will enjoy it while we can before spring weather returns toward the second half of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Thunderstorms this evening and tonight. MVFR ceilings return tomorrow. While we're still watching the potential for a few isolated storms this afternoon (after 20Z), confidence has increased that this activity will remain mainly to the southeast/east of the DFW Metroplex sites. As a result, we removed the TEMPO TS for this afternoon and left the mention of VCTS to account any activity in the vicinity. The potential for storms at ACT is higher, therefore, we continue to carry the mention of TEMPO between 20-23Z. Some of these storms may be severe with very large hail and damaging winds as the main threat. More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected tonight as a line of storms develop to our west and move eastward. Latest models show storms moving across the sites between 03-07Z with lingering showers and isolated storms continuing through the morning hours (12-13Z). A cold front will begin moving into North Texas by mid-late morning with breezy north winds into the afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings are possible as the front moves through, but clearing is expected after 18Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon near and south of I-20, and this evening across western North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 63 79 44 / 50 90 30 10 Waco 79 63 78 43 / 60 90 40 10 Paris 80 63 75 40 / 70 90 60 10 Denton 80 60 77 38 / 50 90 20 10 McKinney 80 62 77 41 / 50 90 40 10 Dallas 80 64 78 44 / 60 90 30 10 Terrell 80 63 77 42 / 70 90 60 10 Corsicana 81 66 79 45 / 60 80 70 20 Temple 80 63 80 43 / 50 80 50 10 Mineral Wells 83 59 77 39 / 60 90 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Sanchez
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:47 UTC.
9 hail, 7 thunderstorm wind, 4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Amateur radio operator relayed report of tennis ball sized hail in Breckenridge.
Storm spotter reported tennis ball sized hail 9 miles south of Breckenridge.
Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).
Emergency manager relayed photos of baseball sized hail in Necessity.
Report from mPING: Baseball (2.75 in.).
Storm spotter reported 2 inch hail east of Breckenridge.
Amateur radio operator relayed a Fire department report of golf ball sized hail near the Young County line to the south of South Bend.
The ASOS at Mineral Wells Airport measured a wind gust of 59 mph.
Amateur radio operator relayed report of 1 inch hail in Poolville.
Amateur radio operator relayed report of 1 inch hail south of Bridgeport.
Emergency manager reported downed trees on highway 101 north of Chico.
A trained spotter reported a 67 mph wind gust on a personal weather station just west of Decatur. Small tree limbs were observed on the roadway.
Emergency manager reported downed trees on CR 3250 north of Paradise.
KGLE measured a 66 mph wind gust between 928 and 935 pm.
A storm spotter measured a 73 mph wind gust north of Gainesville. Damage to and near a residence was also reported. A powerline was ripped down, a carport blown away, as well as the 4x4 posts from the carport blown over a barn more than 70 ft away.
A few city streets were reported to be closed in Fort Worth due to flooding, including portions of E Long Ave, Old Granbury Rd, and Park Hill Dr.
An NWS employee reported that side streets near TX 183 in the Hurst-Euless-Bedford area were flooded.
At least half a dozen city streets were reported to be closed due to flooding in North Dallas, including portions of Merriman Parkway, W Lawther, Northwest Hwy, and Lanshire.
A few roads were closed or impacted due to flood waters, including Luna Rd, Tantor Rd, and Goodnight Ln at Walnut Hill Ln.
Emergency manager reported downed trees on CR 420 and FM 932 just southeast of Hamilton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1316509, 1316510, 1316508, 1316507, 1316506, 1316505, 1316512, 1316515, 1316513, 1316514, 1316518, 1316516, 1316519, 1316517, 1316521, 1316661, 1316662, 1316663, 1316958, 1316952.