What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 9:31 PM CST, 15 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with the potential for strong wind gusts remain possible until just after midnight. Rain showers may linger through the overnight hours.
- Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible later Tuesday and again Wednesday before drying out through the weekend.
- After a slight "cool" down Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures warm up again through the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 29, 9:31 PM CST, 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1031 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with the potential for
strong wind gusts remain possible until just after midnight.
Rain showers may linger through the overnight hours.
- Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible
later Tuesday and again Wednesday before drying out through the
weekend.
- After a slight "cool" down Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures
warm up again through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Dryline convection was much more active this evening compared to
previous. Current radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms along
the I-27 corridor with an outflow pushing east off the Caprock.
These storms are trending weaker, however if they are able to
persist, they are expected to continue expanding off the Caprock.
Thunderstorms are expected to clear the area before midnight with
little to no forcing with the dryline retreated back to NM. However,
some rain showers may persist after midnight, especially off the
Caprock. Until then, downbursts and outflows producing strong wind
gusts up to 50-60 mph remain possible with these storms. Once the
storms clear the area, the rest of the night should be quiet.
Moderate to breezy southerly winds will continue overnight. However,
you could see some rogue wind gusts if outflows from this evening
storms persist overnight. Current water vapor imagery shows upper
ridging dominating southeastern CONUS while an upper trough sits
along the coast of California. Overnight into Tuesday, the upper
trough is expected to push eastward spanning much of western CONUS.
At the same time, the upper ridging will begin to expand southwest
across central to southeast Texas. This will keep subtropical moist
southwesterly flow overhead.
Slight height decreases due to the upper pattern will "cool"
temperatures a couple more degrees for Tuesday. Much of the region
will see highs in the 90s, however the ever so lucky southern
Rolling Plains will see highs in the triple digits. An embedded
shortwave trough passing across the Rockies will trigger the
development of a lee surface trough across Colorado. This surface
trough will sustain the breezy southerly surface flow through
Tuesday afternoon. A diffused moisture gradient will develop along
the southeastern boundary of the surface trough as it expands south
across NM and portions of the Texas Panhandle. Winds ahead of this
gradient will slightly shift to the southeast. Southeasterly upslope
flow as well as a passing upper shortwave will aide in developing
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across higher terrain in eastern
NM Tuesday afternoon before expanding into our region. As the
diffused moist boundary pushes across the Caprock, CAMs indicate
convergence along the diffused boundary with result in a cluster of
thunderstorms developing just east of the I-27 corridor. These
storms look to remain in the vicinity of the I-27 corridor through
the evening as the boundary stalls.
With soundings showing an inverted-v shape, most of the
thunderstorms are expected to be elevated. Similar to the past
couple of evenings, the main threat with these elevated
thunderstorms will be strong winds gusts. Thunderstorms will most
likely be short-lived with weak shear (around 15-20 m/s) hindering
updraft growth. Soundings show DCAPE values up to 1300 J/kg
indicating the potential for downbursts with these short-lived
thunderstorms. Severe hail is not expected with these storms,
however small hail cannot be ruled out. Periods of heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will also be possible, especially in the
vicinity of downbursts. Thunderstorms should clear the region around
midnight, however some rain showers could persist after midnight.
Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows
in the mid 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper
70s across the southern Rolling Plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The upper trough to our west will become fully absorbed back into
the main flow pattern on Wednesday. Although southerly winds will
remain breezy, upper heights will fall further as the broad ridge to
the east will begin to weaken. As such, high temperatures will be
relatively "cooler," near 90 on the Caprock and mid-to-upper 90s off
the Caprock. A dryline will develop during the afternoon/evening
across northeastern New Mexico and additional upper waves will bring
isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, mainly over the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. As with
previous days, winds look to be the main hazard. Storm chances
appear to diminish Thursday and Friday in the absence of any
potent shortwaves or significant jets, so it looks to be a hot and
dry 4th of July at this point. Models significantly diverge
thereafter with GFS indicating an upper low becoming cutoff over
the Great Plains leading to slightly higher storm chances for our
area, whereas ECMWF only shows a shallow trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period with relatively
strong south winds continuing. Scattered TSRA remain west of the
terminals at 23z, with a low chance of convective impacts in the
form of strong and erratic wind gusts to KLBB and KPVW through
the rest of this evening. There is a low chance of a brief period
of MVFR CIGs mainly at KLBB early Tuesday morning, but probability
of occurrence is too low for TAF mention at this time.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 29, 10:12 AM CST, 11 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1112 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ021>044-301615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1112 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from late this
afternoon through this evening, mainly along and west of I-27. Some
of these storms may become severe and will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph quarter-sized hail.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon and evening, especially for areas on the Caprock.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 4:22 PM CST, 5 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
522 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ025-292245-
Hall TX-
522 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM CDT...
At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 9 miles east of Brice, or 10 miles west of Memphis,
moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Brice and Lakeview.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3459 10068 3461 10088 3467 10095 3475 10094
3475 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 221DEG 30KT 3471 10072
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWKSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 5:45 PM CST, 4 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ039-300015-
Yoakum TX-
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT YOAKUM COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM
CDT...
At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles northwest of Denver City, moving northeast at
10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Blowing dust may result in visibility
reductions. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Denver City, Plains, and Bronco.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3296 10306 3339 10306 3332 10262 3296 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 216DEG 8KT 3306 10291
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 6:07 PM CST, 3 hours 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
707 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ028-300030-
Lamb TX-
707 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAMB COUNTY THROUGH
730 PM CDT...
At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Amherst, or 8 miles west of Littlefield, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Littlefield and Amherst.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3384 10250 3394 10258 3406 10242 3402 10228
3387 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 237DEG 14KT 3393 10248
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 7:37 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
837 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ034-035-041-300200-
Hockley TX-Lynn TX-Lubbock TX-
837 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WILL IMPACT WESTERN
LUBBOCK...NORTHWESTERN LYNN AND NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH 900 PM CDT...
At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
outflow boundary along a line extending from 9 miles east of
Levelland to 6 miles west of Slide to 11 miles northwest of Tahoka.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and reduced visibility from
blowing dust.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Sudden reductions in visibility could
make driving hazardous.
Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Wolfforth, Shallowater, Lubbock South Plains Mall, Lubbock
International Airport, Texas Tech University, Slide, Downtown
Lubbock, Woodrow, Reese Center, Wilson, Smyer, Buffalo Springs, New
Home, and Lubbock Science Spectrum.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Be prepared for sudden drops in visibility.
&&
LAT...LON 3378 10199 3362 10172 3331 10168 3323 10192
3362 10226 3378 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 217DEG 31KT 3356 10221 3342 10205 3326 10195
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 8:01 PM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
901 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ023-029-030-035-300230-
Floyd TX-Swisher TX-Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
901 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL IMPACT LUBBOCK...NORTHWESTERN
FLOYD... HALE AND SOUTHEASTERN SWISHER COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...
At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms and
associated outflow winds along a line extending from Plainview to
Cotton Center to Lubbock. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Blowing dust may result in brief
visibility reductions.
Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Plainview, Slaton, Abernathy, Hale Center, Wolfforth,
Shallowater, Idalou, Ransom Canyon, Kress, Cotton Center,
Claytonville, Lubbock South Plains Mall, Aiken, Lubbock International
Airport, Texas Tech University, Halfway, Downtown Lubbock, Reese
Center, and Seth Ward.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be prepared for sudden reductions in visibility due to blowing dust.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3436 10149 3407 10149 3382 10166 3349 10166
3349 10208 3398 10209 3445 10179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 236DEG 22KT 3420 10174 3399 10199 3356 10194
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKSpecial weather statement, Jun 29, 8:39 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
939 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
TXZ029-035-300300-
Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
939 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LUBBOCK AND SOUTHERN
HALE COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...
At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Texas Tech University, or over Lubbock, moving north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Abernathy, Lubbock International Airport, Texas Tech
University, Downtown Lubbock, Lubbock South Plains Mall, New Deal,
and Lubbock Science Spectrum.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3348 10174 3351 10197 3393 10198 3394 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 181DEG 22KT 3358 10186
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWK