Drought in Texas, February 19 to 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

 - Quiet and warm weather will continue through midweek as highs
   climb into the mid to upper 70s.

 - Rainfall returns to southeastern zones Thursday, with areawide
   showers and storms Friday into Saturday.

 - Cool down in store early next week, with near or below freezing
   morning lows and highs in the 50s, while quiet conditions
   prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Cloud cover will be a continuous tide for the next several periods,
with much of our southeastern zones staying cloudy while northern
ones fill in and out beginning tonight. A tightening sfc pressure
gradient should keep southerly winds elevated overnight and keep fog
development at bay. Winds will be a bit gusty through the day,
shifting southwesterly/westerly late in the morning. Afternoon highs
should climb into the upper 70s with a few 80s across the region.

On a larger scale, upper-level lows will work their way around each
other. This should work to occupy the synoptic flow and keep the Ark-
La-Tx in southwest flow for the next few days. The continued
moisture advection from the previous few days will prime the area
for some shower development as early as Thursday evening and
continuing through Saturday afternoon. D1-5 QPF remains pessimistic
on rain totals: generally staying below 0.5". There may be some
embedded rumbles of thunder in these showers, but model severe
parameters look to be too lackluster for any severe thunderstorm
development as of now. This potential will be monitored over the
next several days as it gets into the short term.

Once the upper-level lows are able to propagate eastward late
this weekend, a cold front will sweep through the region and
temporarily knock our temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on
Monday. After which conditions are expected to stay pretty benign.
A ridge will begin to build over the western CONUS early next
week and leave the Four State Region in a dry northwest flow
pattern. With this pattern will come another warming trend that
will bring temperatures into the upper 70s by the end of the long
term period. There will continue to be eyes on fire weather and
drought conditions with the limited rain expected during the
forecast period. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

For the 19/06z TAF period...VFR conditions remain with passing
high clouds across the region. But, MVFR conditions will return,
as low clouds develop across the TAF sites overnight. These clouds
should clear from west to east during the mid to late morning
hours on Thursday, although models are trying to hold some cloud
cover at KMLU/KLFK through the afternoon hours before the clearing
occurs. There could be some light rain/drizzle at KMLU/KLFK as
well on Thursday, but confidence isn't high enough to include in
this TAF package. Winds will remain from the SSW during the
period, with gusts 15-20 mph at times. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through the end of this week.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  65  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  76  64  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  75  56  76  42 /   0  10  10   0
TXK  79  65  79  49 /  10   0  10   0
ELD  75  61  76  50 /  10   0  20  10
TYR  80  65  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  79  64  80  53 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  78  65  79  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20