The combination of top-ten hottest temperatures and virtually no rainfall in February allowed Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought to persist across locations from Hidalgo and Kenedy County west to Zapata County through February. Coverage of D2 and D3 conditions would steadily expand as the month wore on.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
The combination of top-ten hottest temperatures and virtually no rainfall in February allowed Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought to persist across locations from Hidalgo and Kenedy County west to Zapata County through February. Coverage of D2 and D3 conditions would steadily expand as the month wore on. Cattle ranchers began to report culling of herds, dried out rangelands, and the need to haul water on more occasions. Farmers in the Valley were beginning to see crop stress on some winter crops. Damage/loss assessments will be provided for March Storm Data as available, when drought peaked at month's end.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:00 PM CST, 2 hours earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1000 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 - Chilliest morning of the forecast today - Sunday morning - with brief freezing temperatures possible in portions of the northern Ranchlands. - A bit cool today, but there is warming trend through Tuesday. A brief cooldown Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front. Sunny and pleasant early February weather returns to close next week. - Favorable boating conditions into Monday. Deteriorating conditions Tuesday ahead of the next front, then a brief improvement before increasing winds and seas by Wednesday night behind the front. - Moderate surf today; worsens behind a cold front Wednesday. Swimmers in the cool surf should remain alert to shifting rip and longshore currents. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Minimum temperatures Sunday morning have been trending warmer in the latest model runs. Brief freezing temperatures are possible in the northern Ranchlands for an hour or two around sunrise Sunday. Moisture advection in the low levels may increase cloud cover overnight, which would limit radiational cooling and keep temperatures warmer than initially expected. Easterly winds at 850mb will continue to advect moisture, veering southeasterly to the surface Sunday, beginning a gradual warming increase through the week. High temperatures Sunday in the mid 60s to 70 will gradually increase through Tuesday with highs into the 80s likely. A shortwave/disturbance over the desert southwest will eject towards south-central US will force another cold front into deep South Texas midweek. There is a low (less than 20%) chance of showers Wednesday associated with the front, primarily along the coast and low to mid RGV. At this time, a frigid cooldown is not expected with this front - highs midweek drop into the low 70s (60s along coast). The coolest nights are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 40s. Recent model runs have been trending the cool air behind this midweek front being ushered out rather quickly. At present, the latter half of next week looks to be warm and dry. Moisture returning to the atmosphere with southerly flow today into early this week will raise dewpoints and lessen fire weather concerns - which are low for the entirety of the period. Breezy winds are forecast for Monday and Tuesday thanks to a LLJ ahead of the aforementioned cold front. A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through Sunday. Conditions at lower TX beaches will likely deteriorate into early- midweek in association with the cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the 06Z TAF cycle. Light north-northeasterly winds tonight become easterly Sunday morning. At the tail end of the cycle, cloud cover begins to build from MFE towards the coast and may bring brief periods of MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Moderate onshore winds shift southeasterly, becoming gentle later in the day Sunday. Seas decrease to slight Sunday, persisting through Monday, before moderate seas return Tuesday in response to an approaching cold front. Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory headlines may be necessary Wednesday. Ahead of and along the front Wednesday, there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers over the waters. Conditions improve into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 63 46 67 56 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 39 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 43 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 38 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 52 64 59 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 47 66 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme (D3) Drought covered all but the southeast fifth of Brooks County through the 9th, with D3 levels expanding to cover all but the far southeast corner on the 10th. Severe (D2) Drought covered these areas through the period.
Extreme (D3) Drought covered all of Jim Hogg County through the 9th.
Extreme (D3) Drought eastern Zapata County through February 16th, with Severe (D2) conditions elsewhere except the western fifth of the county. Persistent warm to hot and very dry conditions, even for February, allowed D3 conditions to expand farther west to all but the western fifth, with D2 conditions replacing the D1 (Moderate) level drought in the western fifth beginning on February 17th.
Extreme (D3) Drought covered all but the eastern sliver of Starr through eastern Zapata County through February 9th, with Severe (D2) Drought conditions in that sliver. D3 conditions expanded to all of Starr on the 10th, continuing through the end of the month as heat and dryness persisted.
Severe (D2) Drought covered all but two small sections of northern Hidalgo County through February 9th, with a sliver of the northwest corner along the Brooks/Starr County line at Extreme (D3) and about one-sixth of the easternmost locations, next to Willacy and Kenedy, in Moderate (D1) conditions.
Severe (D2) Drought covered the western half of southern Hidalgo County through February 9th.
Severe (D2) Drought covered inland Kenedy County from about 10 miles west of Baffin Bay southwest through just north/east of the Willacy/Hidalgo County line through February 9th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1321007, 1321008, 1321010, 1321011, 1321013, 1321014, 1321016.