Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1145 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

 - One more cold night before we see a warmup to start the
   upcoming work week.

 - With that warmup will come moisture return in advance of our
   next weather disturbance Tuesday into Tuesday Night.

 - A little cooler for Wednesday into Thursday before another big
   warmup for Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Portions of Deep East Texas are the only area across the Four
State Region this late hour of the morning with temperatures just
above freezing. Elsewhere...temperatures remain mostly in the 20s
with lower 20s still ongoing for areas north and west of the I-30
Corridor. Winds...while they have been strong this morning, should
come down a little in sustained speeds and gusts as the pressure
gradient begins to relax a bit as we head into the late afternoon
hours. Cold Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire on time at
Noon Today.

Sfc map currently showing a strong 1044mb high pressure ridge
across Western Oklahoma and this feature will quickly shift south
and east into the heart of our region overnight...allowing winds
to become light. Normally this would result in less in the way of
mixing and thus ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight but
looking aloft, there is an embedded disturbance in northwest flow
across the Central Plains that will quickly spill south and
east into the Middle Red River Valley of SE OK/SW AR and NE TX
bringing some 700mb moisture with it. This moisture is well
supported by all deterministic progs and may tend to hold
temperatures up a bit overnight from falling drastically any
further than they would otherwise given the near calm winds at the
sfc. NBM guidance has come in a little warmer tonight than
previous runs which is on the warmer side of most other MOS
output. NBM has been running a little too cold as of late anyway
so for this reason, have decided to stick with it's slightly
warmer temps overnight. There is some weak forcing associated with
this disturbance as well and given that, can't rule out some
flurries near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor overnight but
anything falling out of this 700mb moisture will be falling into a
very dry atmosphere below this height and thus will likely
evaporate before making it to the surface. Did however add this
possibility to the forecast. This moisture and the disturbance
moves out of the region quickly Sunday Morning and southwest winds
along the backside of sfc ridging will allow for a much quicker
warmup on Sunday vs what we have seen today thus far.

The warming trend will commence to start the upcoming work week
with high temperatures on Monday well into the 60s across most
of the region. Upper ridging across the Intermountain West will
quickly move our way by afternoon on Monday but is quickly
replaced by an upper level trough moving out of the Tx Hill
Country Monday Night. Low level moisture return will be rapid
Monday afternoon to our west and overnight across our region with
the rapid onset of scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms overspreading our region on Tuesday. A cold front
will push this precipitation coverage south and east through our
region Tuesday Night with most if not all of the precipitation
south and east of our region to begin Wednesday. Not concerned
about any strong to severe thunderstorms with this Tue/Tue Night
trough but thunderstorms will be possible.

Longwave trough pushes through our region during the day Wednesday
but we should not see any more precipitation with the upper trough
passage during this time. Instead, we will see temperatures retreat
back slightly for highs on Wed and Thu...a little closer to normal
for early February. Should see temperatures returning back above
normal to end the week and into the upcoming weekend.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

For the 01/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the course of this forecast period. A broken mid level
altocumulus deck is overspreading the region from the northwest
and will continue pushing south and east overnight, lowering CIGs
but remaining within VFR levels. A few scattered flurries are
possible across northern airspace, but not to a degree to be
impactful. Winds will drop off to be nearly calm areawide by
daybreak, then become southwesterly during the daylight hours,
picking up to speeds of 5 to 10 kts, becoming gusty at times,
especially across east Texas.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Spotter activation is not anticipated through the next 7 days.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  25  50  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  20  45  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  17  45  23  61 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  23  48  31  65 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  18  46  27  64 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  24  51  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  23  51  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  23  52  33  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26