Drought in Texas, April 1 to 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures today through Saturday, then below
  average Easter Sunday through Tuesday

- Medium rain chances tonight into Thursday

- Widespread rain chances late Friday through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Southerly lower level flow maintains well above average
temperatures as well as a moist airmass. A few streamer showers
are possible along the US 77 corridor later this morning into
early afternoon. A mid/upper level trough moves over the Plains
tonight into Thursday while the dryline stalls west of our area.
Forcing ahead of the dryline and daytime heating generates showers
and thunderstorms over the Edwards Plateau by early this evening.
Then, the activity tracks to the east across portions of the Hill
Country overnight to the I-35 corridor and points east on
Thursday. There remains a potential for strong to severe storms
due to favorable convective parameters of steep lapse rates and
moderate instability and shear. Large hail is the initial threat,
then a strong wind threat develops should they congeal into
clusters. The new 00Z CAMs are showing the strongest activity
across northern portions of the Hill Country to our Central Texas
counties. Forcing wanes Thursday afternoon into evening allowing
showers and thunderstorms to decrease and dissipate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Above average temperatures continue through early Saturday on
southerly lower level flow. A stronger/deeper mid/upper level
trough moves out over the Plains late Friday into Saturday sending
a cold front across our area on Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms develop late Friday afternoon into evening over our
western areas, then all areas Saturday into Saturday night. In
wake of the frontal passage, temperatures turn below average by
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms linger Sunday as weak mid level
impulses overrun the cooler surface airmass, then end Monday as
mid/upper level ridging takes hold. There remains a potential for
strong to severe storms along with locally heavy rains especially
Friday night through early Sunday. Details will be ironed out over
the next few days. Below average temperatures continue Monday
into Tuesday, though a slow warming trend is anticipated. Thanks
NWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Another overnight expected with returning low clouds with mainly
MVFR ceilings across the region. A few pockets of IFR ceilings are
possible, including near KSAT. Like the past few nights, the low
clouds will expand westward with time and should result in MVFR
ceilings reaching KDRT around or just after sunrise. VFR
conditions return by around 17Z as low clouds mix out and cloud
bases gradually rise into the afternoon. The persistent moderate
to breezy south to southeasterly flow through the past several
days will continue through the period. Wind speeds will again be
lowest overnight through early morning. Speeds pick up into the
afternoon with gusts through the evening at around 25 kt. The
dryline to the west will drive an opportunity for storm activity
across the Southern Edwards Plateau from this evening towards the
overnight. Added PROB30 at KDRT late in the period for this
potential. Activity could approach the I-35 terminals towards
early Thursday morning but we'll keep mention out of the TAF for
now until confidence on timing for those sites. Otherwise, the low
clouds return into Thursday morning with MVFR ceilings once more.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Record High Temperatures

                     Apr 1 (Wed)
Austin Bergstrom:     92 (2011)
Austin Camp Mabry:    93 (2011)
San Antonio Intl:     93 (1939, 2011)
Del Rio Intl:         99 (2024)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  68  84  70 /   0  30  60  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  68  85  69 /   0  20  60  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  67  85  68 /   0  20  50  10
Burnet Muni Airport            87  66  82  67 /   0  40  60  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  70  88  70 /  10  40  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  66  83  68 /   0  40  70  10
Hondo Muni Airport             91  66  86  66 /   0  20  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  67  85  68 /   0  20  50  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  70  84  70 /  10  10  50  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  68  85  70 /   0  20  40  10
Stinson Muni Airport           91  69  87  70 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...62