Drought in Texas, April 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Wednesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible at times across
  the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains on Wednesday.

- Low rain chances expected at times through the remainder of the work
  week, increasing to a medium to high chance of showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend as a cold front moves through South
  Texas.

- Locally heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds possible with
  the rain event this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, becoming
  below normal by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

With some deeper moisture in place, a low (10-20%) chance of
"streamer" showers will be possible across the Coastal Bend and
nearshore waters today and again tomorrow. Most locations will
remain dry with little to no rain accumulations through Wednesday.

An upper level long wave trough will bring a weak cold front into
Central TX Wednesday night/Thursday, but washes out before making it
to South Texas. This still brings a 15%-25% chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the Brush Country and the Victoria Crossroads
and Coastal Plains for Thursday. Some "streamer" showers will
continue to be possible across the Coastal Bend Thursday.

Confidence continues to grow with respect to a heavier rainfall
event across South Texas this weekend. Models continue to be in fair
agreement with an upper trough bringing a moderate to strong cold
front through the region sometime between Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitable water values will increase to between 1.5-1.9 inches on
Saturday ahead of the cold front. There will be some degree of
instability ahead of the front with the right entrance region of a
100+ knot upper jet forecast to be over the region. This allows for
ample upper-level divergence with the frontal boundary providing
strong low level convergence. Forecast soundings indicate long,
skinny CAPE profiles, which suggests thunderstorms producing heavy
rain are certainly possible. We can't rule out a stronger
thunderstorm as well. The Weather Prediction Center has included all
of South Texas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Saturday. Rain looks to continue into Sunday as well with an area
wide average of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain possible. Some locations
could see higher totals, but there remains significant uncertainty
in where the heaviest rain may set up.

The weekend is still a ways off and things can change, so keep up to
date with the latest information.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday due to
swell periods 6-8 seconds, southeast winds 10-15 knots and an almost
full moon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected to continue for the
next few hours before MVFR ceilings develop around 05/06z when
the winds weaken. A few sites will have the potential to drop to
IFR for a few hours from 07-12z. VFR conditions will return
tomorrow as winds increase once again with sites gusting up to
34-35 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow will continue
through Wednesday. Periods of a fresh (BF 5) breeze south of Port
Aransas to Baffin Bay will be possible each afternoon. A fresh to
strong (BF 5-6) breeze is expected to develop Wednesday night into
Thursday with advisory conditions possible. A moderate to fresh (BF
4-5) breeze develops the remainder of the week. There is a low (10-
30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week with
chances increasing this weekend as a cold front moves through the
region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop slightly below
30% this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon over the Rio Grande
Plains and Brush Country. This may lead to brief elevated fire
weather conditions when combined with breezy southeasterly flow, and
dry fuels. Min RH values are forecast to be higher the latter part
of the week. A low chance of showers will return today across the
Coastal Bend. A 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected at times through the work week, then increasing chances
this weekend, which could help to improve fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    69  85  71  84 /   0  10  10  10
Victoria          67  85  68  83 /   0  20  10  30
Laredo            70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             67  91  69  89 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          71  82  72  81 /  10  20  10  20
Cotulla           67  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
Kingsville        68  89  70  88 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       72  80  72  79 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...JCP/84