Hail in Tennessee, March 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon
  and evening. The main threat with these storms will be hail and
  strong/gusty winds.

- Unseasonably warm and breezy Sunday with a low chance of rain
  returning Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly north of
  interstate 40.

- Dry and seasonally cooler conditions are expected Monday until a
  warming trend and returning rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently Smoke is not as widespread as yesterday but HRRR Smoke
Product shows another area moving into the region late today into
the evening hours. Will maintain smoke/haze in the forecast. One
of the main problems will be poor air quality.

Satellite shows a wave within northwest flow aloft moving across
the Ohio valley toward the region late this afternoon and
evening. Boundary layer has moisten some from this morning with
dewpoints mainly in the 50s. SPC meso-analysis shows MLCAPE
increasing to near 1000 J/Kg with weak effective shear of 25-28
knots.

HREF CAMs and deterministic models show widely scattered to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late today into
this evening. Given mid-level lapse rates near 7 degree/C
producing Hail CAPEs of 400+ and low Wet Bulb Zero heights,
isolated hail is possible up to quarter inch.

Dry air aloft and boundary layer will also produce strong/gusty
downbursts possibly up to 50-60 mph.

Convection is expected to continue until around midnight or
thereafter.

Otherwise main weather story will be strong upper ridge over the
Great Basin and troughing in the east producing northwest flow
aloft.

For Sunday, after some early morning clouds rise heights, plenty
of sunshine, and southwest boundary layer flow will produce an
unseasonably warm day. Highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Here
are the record highs:

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
03-22   89(1907)       87(1907)       81(1938)       83(2011)

For Sunday night and Monday morning, a stronger short-wave will
move across the Great Lakes into the northeast United States/mid-
Atlantic area. Associated frontal boundary will move across the
area but dynamics with upper trough will be mainly north and east
of the area. A line of weakening showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will move into southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee. Main chances of rain will be north of interstate 40.

For the latter half of Monday through Wednesday, mostly dry
northwest flow and surface ridging will produce dry and near
seasonable cool temperatures. Main concern is the low afternoon
relative humidity behind the front.

For Thursday through next Saturday, boundary layer moisture and
instability will increase with a chance of showers each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Main question...will we break the boundary layer cap for more
robust convection this evening at TRI and TYS. Latest meso-
analysis shows MLCAPEs increasing to 500-1000 J/Kg with a capping
inversion near 800-850mb. If the environment does break the cap,
there is a threat of hail and strong/gusty winds. Mid-level lapse
rates near 7 degrees/C and relative good CAPE in the Hail growth
region to produce up to quarter size hail. Also, mid-level and
boundary layer dry air to support localized strong downbursts.

This activity will end by around midnight or thereafter.

Besides the widely scattered to scattered convection, HREF and
latest deterministic models show potential of low-cloud
development producing IFR/LIFR conditions at TRI early Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  85  63  75 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  83  60  69 /  40   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  83  58  69 /  30   0  20   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  82  55  63 /  40   0  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-221830-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
229 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 /129 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

...Isolated Severe Storms Possible This Evening...

Widely Scattered to Scattered showers and storms late this
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms possible with the
main concern being hail up to quarter size and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for any occurrences of severe
thunderstorms later today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
421 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

TNZ036-069-212045-
Anderson TN-Knox TN-
421 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Halls, House Mountain State Park, Maloneyville, Mascot,
and Andersonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8409 3620 8405 3618 8394 3617 8392
      3617 8385 3615 8373 3615 8372 3599 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 287DEG 24KT 3613 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
526 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VAZ002-005-006-008-212200-
Washington VA-Scott VA-Wise VA-Russell VA-
526 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL...
NORTHEASTERN SCOTT...WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN WISE
COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF NORTON THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 526 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Norton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norton, Wise, Coeburn, St. Paul, Nickelsville, Dungannon,
Collingwood, Castlewood, and Fort Blackmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 8275 3702 8267 3690 8217 3666 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 280DEG 31KT 3685 8262

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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