After a prolonged cold period that allowed for rapid river ice growth, a period of unusual warm temperatures helped to melt and rot the ice. During the melt process, some ice jams were observed along the Allegheny River and other tributaries along the Beaver and Ohio Rivers.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
After a prolonged cold period that allowed for rapid river ice growth, a period of unusual warm temperatures helped to melt and rot the ice. During the melt process, some ice jams were observed along the Allegheny River and other tributaries along the Beaver and Ohio Rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 1:45 AM EST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 145 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes were seen in late weekend precipitation potential with additional discussion below on Wednesday severe hazards and the late week snow outlook. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periodic rain and above normal temperatures will continue to melt snowpack and raise area rivers; non-zero severe threat exists for Wednesday. 2) Falling temperatures and snow possible late this weekend into early next week, but variability in timing and amounts remains high. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure pushes eastward from the northern Plains over the upper Great Lakes today. A surface warm front extending out ahead of this low brings generally light rain to the local area through morning, with the highest accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch focused mainly north of Pittsburgh. In the wake of the warm front, weak instability develops this evening mainly along the I-80 corridor where the latest HREF suggests a mean MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. The warm front is forecast to retreat slightly to the south, back along the I-80 corridor, during that timeframe and may serve as a localized focus for weak ascent and convective initiation. Therefore, wouldn't be too surprised to see a few showers and possibly even thunderstorms in that vicinity during a 7pm to Midnight window. There is ample wind shear in place (50+ knots) for organized storm modes, but even so the meager moisture and lift will inhibit any notable severe threats. Still, can't rule out a very low, but non-zero, damaging wind gust threat if any downdrafts are able to punch through the stable nocturnal surface layer. Another warm front associated with a lower OH River Valley surface low lifts through the area Thursday into Friday. Hi-res models all generally show scattered showers along that front as it moves into northern WV and potentially up to the I-70 corridor during late afternoon hours. The bulk of heavier and more widespread rain will accompany the low pressure area itself as it tracks across the region late Thursday evening and overnight through Friday morning. Once again, models suggest weak and mostly elevated instability will be in place, but this time across much of the lowland area. Thus, can't rule out some thunderstorms accompanying the heavier showers. A mid to late day cold frontal passage Friday then brings weak cold and dry advection, ending most precipitation chances by Saturday morning. Total accumulations Wednesday through Friday are likely to be around 0.5-0.75 inches, with probabilities favoring the WV higher terrain for seeing accumulations exceeding 1" (40-60%). Though very unlikely to lead to widespread flooding, the combination of this rain plus a melting snow pack and loose river ice keeps a risk for river ice jam developments along with localally-influenced minor flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2... Analysis of ensemble weather models favors a pattern shift during the late weekend to early next week period the eastern CONUS ridge/southwest flow pattern is replaced with upper troughing. There are 50-90% probabilities for high temperatures falling below 40 degrees by Sunday and similar probabilities for highs falling to or below freezing by Monday. Confidence is also increasing on this winter system producing widespread precipitation over this time frame, but variability in outcomes (and thus impacts) remain very high. These outcomes will be dictated by the timing/depth of the upper trough, plus the strength and track of the surface low, all of which will influence the timing of rain to snow transition and thus, the duration/intensity of snow. For example, scenarios exist for little to no snow or for high-end accumulations. It is recommended to just remain aware of the late weekend system, and to monitor our forecasts and discussions about its trends in the coming days about how it may/may not impact your area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGE... - Restrictions with rain beginning later this morning. ------------------------------------------------------------ VFR will continue early this morning, but cigs will lower as light rain approaches along a warm front by around 09z. Initial rain is most likely for ports north of PIT, which lower chances to the south. Cigs will slowly lower through the day, becoming IFR as the second round of rain filters into most ports by 15z- 18z. Wind remains light overnight. By the afternoon, the wind is forecast to shift out of the SW and freshen up with gusts between 20-25kts. Outlook... Lingering BR and FG issues remain possible Thursday over moist ground. Rain and restriction chances will continue into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && DISCUSSION...Cermak/Frazier AVIATION...Rackley/Lupo
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 100 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029- 031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-190600- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland- Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 100 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. TC
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 62 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:29 UTC.
2 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
County 911 center reported that route 956 was closed in the vicinity of Fayette-Neshannock Falls Road because the roadway was flooded in several locations due to an ice jam on Neshannock Creek.
Emergency management reported that an ice jam had broken loose on Oil Creek and was moving downstream toward Oil City where ice was jammed at the mouth of the creek. The water rose rapidly and flooded portions of Seneca Street before all of the ice began moving out of the creek into the Allegheny River.
Ice jam flooding occurred along the Allegheny River from Lock 9 to Lock 8. This impacted a campground on the right descending bank and also camps and homes on the left descending bank.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1321408, 1321419, 1321440.