Short period, fresh northwest swell combined with a building, moderate long period northwest swell to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Short period, fresh northwest swell combined with a building, moderate long period northwest swell to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 7:25 PM PST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
825 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
.Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...
.AVIATION...03/06Z TAFs...Conditions are mainly VFR, but patchy
coastal IFR visibilities will persist for the remainder of this
evening. Also, showers will diminish over Douglas, northern Klamath,
Lake, and Modoc counties.
A wind reversal to southerly is expected along the coast overnight
into Sunday morning, with low ceilings and/or fog spreading north
along the coastline and into the coastal valleys, including at North
Bend, through the late morning, around 18Z.
Patchy MVFR will then linger at the coast during Sunday afternoon
into the evening, while a more active afternoon and evening of
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms develops across the
area.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, May 2, 2026....North winds
are weakening, but fresh swell dominated seas will remain steep into
early Sunday morning. The fresh north swell will slowly diminish
later Sunday into Monday, while a longer period northwest swell
builds and becomes dominant. Relatively quiet conditions are
expected for much of the next week.
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1100 AM PDT Saturday May 2, 2026...A short
period northwest swell and a building long period northwest swell
will combine their energy and may produce very large waves washing
up on area beaches late tonight through Sunday morning. The risk
will be highest around sunrise on Sunday morning.
Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than
normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly
knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The
waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap
anyone caught underneath. Never turn away from the ocean!
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026/
DISCUSSION...A developing cutoff low remains the guiding influence
for weather across northern California and southern Oregon this
weekend. For today, southerly flow aloft and unstable atmospheric
conditions will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast for today.
As of this Discussion, a pair of thunderstorms have already
developed over northern Lake County. Model guidance shows the
highest CAPE values (900-1200 J/Kg) over Josephine County and along
the Cascades, as well as some 400-600 J/Kg values over Modoc and
eastern Siskiyou counties. SPC CAMs are focusing expectations on
these areas, with chances of isolated to scattered development
across Lake and Klamath counties as well. Any thunderstorms that
develop are likely to be pulse/cellular, and severe thunderstorms
are not expected. Activity decreases quickly into tonight.
The cutoff low will move eastwards over California through Sunday
and Monday. This will bring more rain showers as well as embedded
thunderstorms. With the track of the cutoff remaining farther south,
Siskiyou and Modoc counties will see chances for rainfall (50-70%)
and thunderstorms (20-30%) on both Sunday and Monday. Looking into
Oregon, chances for rainfall (40-60%) and thunderstorms (20-25%) on
Sunday afternoon and evening will be focused west of the Cascades,
although some east side areas may see light rainfall. On Monday,
activity looks to be mostly limited to southern Lake and Klamath
counties with stray activity farther north. These chances can
fluctuate depending on the actual path of the low, as cutoffs can be
finicky with how they travel.
A few showers may linger into Tuesday morning in eastern Modoc and
southeastern Lake counties as the cutoff's influence dwindles. An
upper ridge settles in place, setting up a warm and dry period for
the week ahead. Inland valleys and basins on either side of the
Cascades are forecast to be in the high 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday
and Thursday while the Oregon coast stays in the mid 60s. A front
passing to the north could flatten the ridge and bring slight relief
on Friday and possibly into the weekend. -TAD
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for ORZ021-022.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
525 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
ORZ025>028-030100-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades OR-
South Central Oregon Cascades OR-Jackson County OR-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills OR-
525 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Douglas
and northeastern Jackson Counties through 600 PM PDT...
At 525 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prospect State Scenic Viewpoint, or 22 miles southwest of Crater
Lake. This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Joseph Stewart State Park, Prospect, and Prospect State Scenic
Viewpoint.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4278 12236 4265 12241 4269 12277 4295 12259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 111DEG 4KT 4273 12250
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
CCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
746 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
ORZ023-025-030315-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills OR-Central Douglas County OR-
746 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Douglas
County through 815 PM PDT...
At 746 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cavitt Creek Falls Recreation Site, or 13 miles east of Roseburg,
moving west at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Roseburg, Cavitt Creek Falls Recreation Site, Roseburg North, Glide,
and Green.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4327 12294 4310 12302 4315 12340 4340 12327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 109DEG 13KT 4321 12308
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 sneakerwave. Local standard time, as filed.
Short period, fresh northwest swell combined with a building, moderate long period northwest swell to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
Short period, fresh northwest swell combined with a building, moderate long period northwest swell to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1322561, 1322562.