Rip Current in Florida, May 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
153 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA, LAKE, SEMINOLE,
ORANGE, OSCEOLA, AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 6PM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms between
  roughly 3-11 PM today, especially near and north of I-4. The
  primary hazard is a 5-15% chance for damaging wind gusts. There
  is also a small chance for large hail and a tornado.

- Hot ahead of the storms today with widespread low/mid 90s in
  the afternoon. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which
  affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to
  adequate hydration or cooling. Temps turn cooler on Sunday.

- Peak wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected ahead of any storms on
  Saturday afternoon. Combined with low relative humidity and
  drought conditions, sensitive to critical fire weather
  conditions are forecast. Outdoor burning is discouraged today!
  A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon south of Orlando
  and the Cape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today...A cold front extending from the northern Gulf across
north FL this morning is forecast to push into Lake/Volusia
counties later this afternoon and across the remainder of EC FL
tonight. Ahead of this front, strong and gusty SW winds will
produce a windy day. Despite considerable high cloud cover across
northern sections, it will not take much heating to mix down 30
knot winds located just above the sfc. So a Wind Advisory has
been issued for Brevard/Osceola northward for frequent gusts near
35 mph peaking during the early to mid afternoon. Max temps
across Lake/Volusia counties may hold in the upper 80s due to the
cloud cover and incoming convection later this aftn assocd with
the front.

Southern sections (south of Orlando) will have additional
concerns. While also breezy/gusty, better heating will produce
hotter temps reaching the mid 90s even at the coast due to lack of
any sea breeze due to the offshore (SW) flow. This will produce
near record highs at MLB/VRB/FPR. In addition, deep mixing will
produce lowest RH values across the south. Low RH combined with
the gusty SW winds and already dry conditions has prompted a Red
Flag Warning from Osceola/south Brevard to Okeechobee and Treasure
coast. Important to note that today will be a very fire sensitive
day across all of EC FL but Red Flag criteria are most likely to
be met across the south. Any new or existing fires will be
capable of spreading rapidly.

Increased moisture (PWAT 1.70-2.00") along the frontal zone will
combine with cool mid levels (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient
instability (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and most notably strong upper
level shear 50-65 knots to produce a risk of strong to severe
storms this aftn and eve focused along and north of I 4 but
extends across Orlando metro and Brevard/Osceola counties. There
are some mitigating factors though, including a warm layer near
700 mb as well as deep mixing which will produce high LCLs. So
the tornado threat looks quite low. The primary threat will be
strong to damaging wind gusts (5-15% chance). Large hail would be
more likely in discrete individual supercells but the shear may be
too strong too allow for this. Convection is forecast to weaken
by late this eve as the front pushes southward into Okeechobee/
Treasure coast.

Any lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a
day or two before flaring up.

Sunday...The front will be across south FL but a ripple of energy
riding along the front will keep clouds and rain chances across
southern sections, with highest rain chances (70%) focused on
Martin county. Drier air filtering in from the north will
producing increasing sunshine across the north. North to northeast
wind flow will produce breezy conditions along the coast at 20-25
mph and noticeably cooler temps in the mid to upper 70s, lower
80s Lake county.

Mon-Fri...Zonal flow aloft will continue the first half of the
week with a ridge nosing in from the SW Gulf mid week. This ridge
will get flattened by a long wave trough rotating across the
eastern CONUS late week. At the surface, elongated high pressure
will extend from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S,
shifting southward mid-week ahead of the next front pushing into
the deep South. The front is forecast to push across the area
around Friday but moisture looks rather meager so rain chances are
currently low. There will be a quick warm-up with afternoon highs
reaching into the low to mid 90s by Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Southwest winds will increase today ahead of a frontal boundary
draped across north FL. Winds 15-20 knots will be prevalent over
the offshore waters especially south of Sebastian Inlet. A period
of 20 knots winds (advisory criteria) is forecast this afternoon
but will handle with a Caution as duration looks brief. The front
will push into the northern waters late today with a wind shift
out of the W/NW over the Volusia waters and an increase of 15-20
knots. The front is forecast to continue southward reaching south
FL by early Sat. Winds will turn N behind the front at 15-20 knots
tonight and N/NE Sunday. Seas build 4-5 FT nearshore and 6 FT in
the Gulf Stream behind the front. Do not anticipate need for an
SCA so will handle with a Caution. Nonetheless, boating conditions
will be poor on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded
storms will accompany the front and linger across the southern
waters Sunday.

Elongated high pressure to the north builds over the area Mon-Tue
with winds gradually becoming more East by Tue and speeds 10-15
knots. Winds become SE Wed as the trailing ridge axis settles
southward toward the area. Seas fall below 6 FT in the Gulf Stream
late Mon with 3-4 FT Tue and 3 FT Wed areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A TORNADO WATCH remains in effect thru 6PM this evening for
terminals across I-4 and down thru MLB. SW/WSW winds
breezy/gusty (15-20 kts, G30 kts, possibly higher outside of
convection). SCT, quick- moving, TSRA along/ahead of the front
arrive at KLEE/KDAB around 18Z, gradually pushing south over the
next several hours, reaching the KSUA around 02Z, then dissipating
after 05Z. Forecast is for decreasing intensity thru late
aftn/early eve. Will need to watch for ISOLD-SCT discrete cells
developing ahead of the line as well. ISOLD +TSRA could produce
wind gusts exceeding 35-40 kts, esp from KMLB north between
18Z-00Z. High moisture near the front will continue to produce
-SHRA and drop CIGs to MVFR behind the main convective line
through most of the night with gradual improvement during the day
on Sun at least north of MLB; much slower CIG improvement south of
here. NW winds tonight, post-frontal, gradually diminish to near
10 kts. Winds continue to veer N/NE thru the day on Sun, with
speeds 10-15 kts as the pgrad remains a bit tight. ISOLD to SCT
convection on Sun - generally from near MLB southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong and gusty southwest to west winds today will increase 15-25
mph with gusts 30-35 mph by early afternoon and produce a fire
weather sensitive day across all of east central FL. Hottest temps
and lowest RH values will occur south of Orlando where mid 90s and
critical RH values are forecast. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Osceola, Okeechobee, Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River
and south Brevard counties this afternoon. Dispersion values will be
Excellent all areas. Such conditions will support rapid spread of
any new or existing fires.

An cold front will push into Lake and Volusia counties late today
and reach south Florida early Sunday. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will accompany the front beginning late this
afternoon across the north, spreading southward tonight. Cooler on
Sunday behind the front with lingering showers and storms across
southern sections. Any lightning strikes will be a concern for new
fire starts. Unfortunately, the rainfall this weekend is forecast to
bring only limited drought relief.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Record high temperatures today:

Site     May 2
DAB    95 (1953)
LEE    95 (1990)
SFB    94 (2010)
MCO    97 (1906)
MLB    95 (2002)
VRB    94 (2002)
FPR    95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  77  61  80 /  50   0   0   0
MCO  65  80  64  83 /  50  10  10  10
MLB  68  78  67  80 /  70  20  20  10
VRB  68  78  66  80 /  70  40  30  10
LEE  61  81  60  85 /  40   0   0   0
SFB  63  80  61  83 /  50   0   0   0
ORL  65  80  63  83 /  50   0  10   0
FPR  68  78  66  80 /  70  50  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tornado Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-
     159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...Tornado Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ552.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
117 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

FLZ045-046-144-021800-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-Southern Lake County FL-
117 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clermont, or near Ferndale, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Apopka, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee, and Winter Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for east central
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2878 8165 2878 8142 2879 8140 2861 8134
      2840 8177 2853 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 240DEG 36KT 2855 8171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

FLZ041-044-046-141-144-021830-
Northern Lake County FL-Coastal Volusia FL-Seminole FL-
Inland Volusia FL-Southern Lake County FL-
140 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE...LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Bunnell to near Lake Weir
to 7 miles south of Inverness Highlands South. Movement was east at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, and DeLand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for east central
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2919 8095 2879 8137 2878 8166
      2847 8166 2834 8189 2835 8196 2836 8196
      2896 8195 2896 8166 2928 8164 2932 8168
      2940 8142 2926 8142 2927 8115 2941 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 264DEG 49KT 2941 8133 2899 8205 2869 8231

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sedlock