Strong winds occurred across the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles during the afternoon and early evening of May 18th. Surface winds reached the 25 to 35 mph range while gusts were in the 45 to 55 mph range thanks to a strong upper level system and cold front passage.
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The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
Strong winds occurred across the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles during the afternoon and early evening of May 18th. Surface winds reached the 25 to 35 mph range while gusts were in the 45 to 55 mph range thanks to a strong upper level system and cold front passage. There were at least two instances of gusts reaching over 59 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 5:43 PM CST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
- High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions
persist Today.
- A cold front will arrive this evening bringing northerly winds
and cooler temperatures.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as
Tuesday night and extending through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Hot, dry, and gusty conditions are solidly imposing their will on
the Panhandles once again today, creating high-end critical to
extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles.
These details are investigated further in the fire weather forecast
discussion.
A storm system traversing the central Plains today is responsible
for our active weather today, and will continue pushing eastward
through the overnight hours. As the base of this large trough passes
over the region through this afternoon, a sharpening dry line will
become rooted in the vicinity of the TX - OK state line. East of
this feature, southeast winds are advecting higher dew points in
the 60s while building strong instability of over 4000 J/kg
MLCAPE. This environment would be extremely conducive for severe
thunderstorms capable of all hazards (damaging, hail, &
tornadoes), but it is uncertain if we will get any successful
attempts at convective initiation in the far eastern Panhandles
before the dry line fully mixes out of our CWA into western
Oklahoma. Proximity to better synoptic support would give the far
NE & SE Panhandles near Beaver/Lipscomb and Collingsworth counties
respectively the better chances for storms, although the
probability for development is still only about 15%.
As the system departs, a relatively strong cold front will drop
southward over the region this evening, bringing breezy northerly
winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph through the overnight
hours (10-20% chance for a few rogue gusts >40 mph). This will
finally provide improved moisture and cooler temperatures to
mitigate fire weather concerns for the Panhandles by Tuesday.
Winds will gradually settle to 10-15 mph later tomorrow with
cooler highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s for most locations.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Is a pattern change truly on the way? Will rain chances finally pan
out? Medium and long range weather models have been insisting for
some time now that the onset of El Nino will provide increasing
moisture opportunities for the high Plains during late May to
early June. Now that we are knocking on the door of this time
frame, models have insistingly held onto this hope for better rain
chances over the next week or two. Ensemble projections depict
multiple rounds of systems approaching the Panhandles beginning
Wednesday and lasting into next week, with decent potential to
pull improved moisture along with them. Many of these
opportunities will likely only bring hit or miss showers and
storms, but some locations could certainly get lucky with rain any
given day during this stretch (15-30% POPs daily).
Wednesday - Thursday is currently the most promising window for
storms, as southwest flow aloft settles atop the Plains and draws
improved theta-e thanks to troughing over the western CONUS.
Concerns exist that a localized dry slot may prevent moisture return
from effectively spreading across the area Wednesday, but many
models have additional moisture influx negating this issue later in
the day. Highest confidence in storm development exists further west
in the higher terrain of New Mexico and further south across the
West TX Big Country, but some of this activity could spread north
and east into the Panhandles if moisture is favorable. Thursday's
rain chances would likely be conditional based on Wed night
activity, but the synoptic pattern will remain relatively
unchanged.
One bonus to the forecast pattern outside of rain chances, is the
high likelihood of the return to near or below average
temperatures to end the month. After the anomalously hot, windy,
and dry stretch we've been in, the outlook of lighter winds,
cooler temperatures, and higher humidity should provide an
extremely welcomed reprieve from fire weather concerns.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
BLDU expected to persist until around 1-2Z, but as winds decrease
around sunset, risk for BLDU should as well. winds are expected to
calm down from current conditions until a frontal passage, which
will turn winds from WSW to N and increase wind speeds to 20-25
kts sustained gusting to 30-35 kts. BLDU is expected to occur with
the frontal passage as well, as we have received reports of dust
being picked up by the front. TAFs reflect this with BLDU at each
TAF site at the associated time the front is expected to move
through. After the front passes, winds are expected to turn E near
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
With extremely critical fire weather conditions still expected to
materialize this afternoon and evening, the arguably greatest
factor of concern lies with any existing fires and the arrival of
a cold front to the region later this evening. This front dropped
further south than models anticipated this morning, helping higher
humidity and cooler temperatures linger across the NW and central
Panhandles. Unfortunately, there are no favorable parameters for
these conditions to linger through the day, and the front should
easily retreat northward allowing drier air and southwest winds of
25-35 mph gusting up to 50 mph to take over the rest of this
afternoon-evening.
The cold front will fully breach the Panhandles this evening,
quickly shifting winds out of the north at 15-25 mph gusting up to
35 mph (10-20% chance for a few gusts >40 mph). Better moisture
behind the front will help humidity values greatly improve overnight
(60-90% RH), but the initial wind shift will pose a significant risk
for any existing fires to spread rapidly southward. This front is
currently projected to reach the OK Panhandle as early as 6-8 PM,
the northern and central TX Panhandle as early as 8-10 PM, and the I-
40 corridor by 10 PM to midnight. We will monitor the timing of
the front closely through the day.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ001>003.
&&
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...23Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 209 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-190715- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 209 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions will persist for the entire combined Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Low chances exist for a storm or two to develop across the far eastern combined Panhandles this afternoon and evening. If a storm is able to develop it could quickly become severe. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Daily thunderstorm chances will exist beginning Wednesday lasting through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
347 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0333 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WNW Fritch 35.65N 101.62W
05/18/2026 M64 MPH Moore TX Mesonet
&&
TLHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A post frontal wind gust of 59mph was measured at the mesonet located eight miles west of Slapout.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1335762.